IT WAS A VERY GOOD YEAR

What a great year. I think, all up and all in, 2004 was a fabulous year for freedom and America. It started out with the Rose Revolution in Georgia, throwing out the Soviet apparatchiks to elect a free market pro-America government, and ended with the Orange Revolution doing the same thing in Ukraine. In between, liberated Afghanistan successfully held its first-ever democratic elections.

We got to memorialize for history the greatest American of the 20th century, Ronald Reagan. We re-elected George Bush and inflicted an utterly demoralizing defeat on the George Soros-Michael Moore Democrats. Inflation and unemployment are low, stocks are higher, the economy is humming. We didn’t suffer a single terrorist attack on American soil, took the fight to the terrorists and are close to winning in Iraq. And on top of all of this, Yasser Arafat gave to the world the best possible gift he could give: he died. Frank Sinatra himself couldn’t ask more from a year like 2004.

Right, very interesting, thanks Jack for yesterday’s news – what about 2005? That’s what you’re asking, yes?

Well, here’s a confession: Contrary to what some may think, I really don’t have a crystal ball. There’s no such thing, because there’s no such thing as the future. The future doesn’t exist. It will exist, but doesn’t now. What exists instead is a number of possible futures, some of which are likelier than others. So here goes with what I see are the likeliest possible futures of 2005.

Red Dogs
You’ve heard of the Blue Dogs in Congress. Get ready for the Red Dogs. The Blue Dogs were formed by conservative Democrat Congressmen of the 104th Congress to work with the Republicans who had gained the majority in the 1994 election. The Red Dogs are a group of about 75 conservative Republican and Democrat Congressmen of the incoming 109th Congress who are not going to roll over for George Bush on illegal immigration and other issues.

The Red Dogs’ vote against the recent intelligence bill is just a taste of what’s to come. They will block passage of a number of bills unless they contain language restricting illegal immigration. If Bush wants Social Security reform, for example, he better agree that illegal aliens don’t get any Social Security benefits.

A number of the Red Dogs have assured me they will demand that federal public lands be sold to pay for Social Security transition costs. The dance between Bush and the Red Dogs will be one of the most fascinating to watch in Washington next year.

Gold Bears
2005 will see the demise of many a gold bug. The dollar will end its descent against the Euro as Old Europe continues its fall into an economic abyss. Greenspan will not expand the money supply, inflation will not accelerate, oil will fall to below $35 by spring, the DOW will rocket past 11,000 heading for 12, and anyone believing these goofy predictions of “Gold to $850!!!” is going to lose their shirt.

One year ago, on December 30, 2004, gold closed at $417.20. Today, December 30, 2004, it closed at $438.40. That’s a whopping 5% profit. Gold will continue to be a lousy investment for 2005.

The Weasels Strike Back
The Rogue Weasels kicked out of the CIA by Porter Goss and their friends still at Langley will continue to undermine Goss, President Bush, and our national security. Their key media allies will continue to be two of the sleaziest journalists in DC, Dana Priest and Walter Pincus of the Washington Post, leaking stories to them about the “secret” CIA prison at Guantanamo or the CIA’s “Flying Prison,” or how terrible it was for Goss to fire a lightweight flake like Jami Miscik, the thankfully now-former Deputy Director of Intelligence.

The main goal of the RW’s will be to prevent Goss from being appointed NID, National Intelligence Director; make sure the NID is a liberal squish to their liking; and then assign to the NID the single most important responsibility of the entire intelligence community: preparing and delivering the PDB – the hyper-classified President’s Daily Briefing – for President Bush.

The Rogue Weasels and the Washington Post are waging war on Porter Goss, a war he may lose in 2005 unless he develops a media strategy to counter it, and orders the CIA General Counsel’s office to go after Priest & Pincus legally.

Liberated Iraq
The January 30 elections will be a success, the first-ever full democratic elections in any major Arab state, and the first government ever controlled by Arab Shias. Not all Sunnis will participate, but enough to show up Osama Bin Laden as a losing schmuck for threatening to kill them if they did. The Sunni-Jihadi terrorism will not immediately cease, but will increasingly diminish. The Iraqi Shias will tell Iran to stick it, and will work hard to make Iraq a functioning success. By the end of 2005, the Jihadis will be pretty much defeated and the end of our military presence in Iraq will be in sight.

Putin in a Corner
The next loss for Putin’s Russia will be a sliver of Moldova occupied by Russian troops called “Trans-Dneister.” Surrounded by Ukraine, the troops’ removal will be demanded by Yushchenko, who may trade their removal and other favors for allowing Russia to keep its Black Sea naval fleet in Sevastopol. This will be followed by Georgia’s Micael Shakaashvili successfully demanding the removal of Russian troops occupying a breakaway region of Georgia called Abkhazia.

Next week, on January 6th, the State Department, at the direction of Condi Rice, will hold a seminar on “Party Development” in Russia – i.e., how to export Ukraine’s Orange Revolution to Russia, and convert Russia into more of a real democracy and less of a Putin autocracy. While this may not be achieved, it does show that a Condi State Department and Bush White House are not going to put up with Putin trying to screw the US.

Putin will counter this with a variety of moves. The loss of Ukraine is a major blow to him in the eyes of his fellow Russians, so he might he even try to have Yushchenko killed. His principal move is a military-economic alliance with China: selling oil (and 20% of Yukos) to the Chinese, helping China to develop space-based weapons and methods to attack US carrier groups in the Pacific. It’s incredibly desperate and stupid, turning Russia into China’s poodle. Doesn’t Putin know dog is a delicacy of the Chinese cuisine?

China vs. Japan
As China becomes the bully that everyone hates, Japan will form an anti-China alliance among East Asia nations. It starts with Taiwan. Japan is allowing former Taiwan President Lee Tung-hui to visit Japan, airily dismissing Beijing’s bitter protest. Japan ruled Taiwan from 1895 to 1945, and the Taiwanese do not have the bad memories of Japanese colonial dominance that others have such as South Korea. A Taiwan-Japan Alliance will be the cornerstone of Japan’s China Containment policy.

Next for Japan comes Vietnam. Economic relations are growing, especially regarding development of South China oil reserves claimed by China. China claims the entire South China Sea as its territorial waters, and both Japan and Vietnam are determined to deny this claim. Japan will broker a deal between Vietnam and the US to re-establish a US Navy Base at Cam Ranh Bay right on the South China Sea.

Then comes Korea, which means we need to discuss:

Korean Necrophilia
North Korea is on the verge of collapse, with the Kim Jong-il regime being overthrown by military officers and the country disintegrating into chaos. This is why Michael Horowitz of the Hudson Institute made headlines in South Korean newspapers when he said in a speech in Seoul that South Korean President Noh (yes it’s spelled Roh but pronounced “No”) is “making love to a corpse” in trying to keep the Pyongyang “lunatic regime” in power. Noh is afraid of a flood of millions of North Korean refugees into South Korea. That’s where Japan comes in.

Only Japan has the cash – hundreds of billions of dollars – to pay what it would take for Noh to lose his fear, to pay for rebuilding North Korea and unify it with the South. A unified Korea – make that a unified nuclear Korea – would make the Chinese very unhappy. Which is why Japan will be willing to spend whatever it takes to achieve it and cement a Japan-Korea Alliance.

Make Money, Not War
This may become the motto of India and Pakistan. Negotiations are now underway to reach some settlement of Kashmir, the region both countries claim as their own. War is lousy for business, and India wants to make money, to be a global player, to run with the big dogs. Indian businessmen see a huge market of 140 million potential customers right next door in Pakistan, and Pakistani businessmen see a far larger market in India. With a dollop of luck, the prospects for making money are going to increase and those for making war decrease in the sub-continent in 2005.

With a quite larger dollop of luck, this could be the case with Israel and the Palestinians. Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak is determined to bring this about, as the Israel-Palestine problem will remain a foot-stomping brake on Egyptian economic potential until solved. With Arafat’s death and the first real semblance of Palestinian elections early next month, Palestinian businessmen may be less afraid to argue that making money with Israelis is more important than suicide-killing them.

The EU, led by anti-Semitic France, will maniacally press for the “Right of Return” for Palestinian “refugees” to Israel, but George Bush will adamantly say forget it. Sharon’s coalition with Labor is a disaster, as the Israeli Labor Party is run by self-hating Jews advocating the most extreme post-modern ultra-leftism of Europe, and suffering the neurosis of the Stockholm Syndrome. Let’s hope Sharon regains his senses next year.

There’s more, lots more. Azerbaijan will be next in line for a democratic orange-type revolution. Venezuela will grow as a major problem for the US until Chavez’s prancing as a fascist caudillo, a billionaire Castro, is ended with extreme prejudice. If we’re as lucky as we were in 2004, next year will finally see the death of Castro himself. He’s got to die sooner or later.

That’s enough for now. There will be so much more to discuss in the next twelve months. 2005 is going to be even better than its predecessor. Next New Year’s Eve, we’ll be saying again: It was a very good year.

Have a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2005!