GOOD AT SELLING LIES, LOUSY AT SELLING TRUTH

My friend and neighbor, well-known economist Richard Rahn, summarizes the Republicans’ greatest political weakness thus:

The Democrats are good at selling falsehoods, and the Republicans are lousy at selling the truth.

There couldn’t be a better example of this than the July BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) jobs report. The Dems and their Pogo Press propagandists bayed to the moon on how the payroll survey showing only 32,000 new jobs created for the month was “disastrous,” and “pathetically anemic.” In reality, it was the Bush campaign’s response to the liberal headlines proclaiming employment disaster that was pathetically anemic.

The truth that Bush should have trumpeted is that over 600,000 jobs were created last month, not 32,000. The BLS issues two employment stats: the “payroll” survey, asking companies if they’ve hired more folks, and the “household” survey, asking actual individuals if they’re working. Big companies didn’t hire much last month, so the payroll survey showed a net increase of only 32,000. But people are going to work on their own in massive droves, which is why the household survey showed a net increase of well over 600,000.

This is why the BLS reported unemployment has now dropped to 5.5%, the lowest its been since October 2001.

Bush, Cheney, and the entire Republican National Committee should be forcefully and clearly declaring that the BLS July household survey is a cause for celebration – for what it represents is an explosion of entrepreneurism occurring in the American economy. Yet they all seem to have a muzzle on their media megaphone. The latest Policy Memo sent out by the Bush campaign on August 12, doesn’t even mention the household survey, much less celebrate it.

Earlier this week, the White House released a “talking points” paper sent to supporters entitled “America’s Ownership Society: Expanding Opportunities.” The concept of an “Ownership Society” will be the major economic theme of the Bush campaign and a focus of the GOP convention.

You would think that the explosion of entrepreneurism we are seeing right now would be a principle feature of Bush’s “Ownership Society.” Under it, GW will be advocating a raft of economic incentives during his second term, such as private Social Security investment accounts, the promotion of homeownership, lowering income tax rates on businesses, further tax cuts, and possibly an entire “revenue-neutral” overhaul of the entire tax code.

All of this is great stuff – but few issues are more critical for voters than their working and making money. They need to be aware that there is a Bush Boom of economic opportunity, of Americans creating their own economic future – yet the GOP’s inability to out-shout the liberal media has turned this into a Stealth Boom.

Cross your fingers that GW and Karl Rove are keeping their powder dry until the convention. Kerry shot his bolt back in July. GW gets to shoot his in late August. Kerry didn’t even get a dead cat bounce in the polls. Count on GW to unload some blockbusters, giving him a convention bounce with solid momentum.

In fact, I think the smell of a Kerry collapse is already in the market’s air. Gold is now going down below $400. Stocks are skittish and whipsaw-volatile because investors are still too nervous about the possibility of a Kerry win. Once GW announces small sell-offs of the Strategic Oil Reserve and the Saudis start pumping an additional 1.3 million barrels per day, the “terrorist premium” of oil of $10-$15 a barrel evaporates, causing the shorts betting on sky-high oil to lose their shirts – and by October 1st oil will be in the low 30s.

As investors realize the election is going to be a Bush Blow-Out, stocks will be in Rally City. The DOW will be so far above 10,000 folks will be taking bets on when it will reach 11,000. And this doesn’t even factor in any October Surprises, like the capture of Osama Bin Laden* or whatever Hillary has in store to torpedo Kerry for keeps.

For all of this, I am still holding my breath until Labor Day. By then it should be clear what impact and bounce GW gets from the convention, and whether the GOP has decided to be less lousy at selling the truth. Yep, we still need to keep crossing fingers.

*(Note: I am certainly not peddling the Dem paranoia that OBL is already captured and GW is waiting to announce it in October. What is true is that the hunt is seriously on for him in the Pakistan badlands, and it would be great if we got lucky within the next two months.)