HALF-FULL REPORT 10/26/12

Red Rocks Amphitheatre, October 23, 2012.  Remember the place and date, for history may record them as where and when America’s spiritual rebirth began.  What happened here is simply astounding. There is an eyewitness account of it that made me cry.  I’d like to ask you to take a moment to read Mitt Romney’s Quiet Prayer Amidst the Sound of Thunder.

Here is a short clip of the event.  Look at the size of the crowd as the camera pans up:

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From the sublime to the absurdly disgusting.  Zero’s latest official campaign ad, released yesterday (10/25), is a TV Bimbo comparing a girl’s losing her virginity to voting for Zero.  Brietbart’s Ben Shapiro has the video + transcript and appropriate comment.  Zero is sinking into the depths of desperation.  You wonder how much further he’ll sink over the next 11 days. 

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"A tsunami of filth."  That might be the best way to describe Zero’s presidency and campaign.  Right now, however, it’s the description of a scandal that’s engulfed Britain – and is descending upon the New York Times.

For over 30 years, Jimmy Savile (1926-2011) was such a BBC entertainment icon he was knighted by Queen Elizabeth. He devoted much of time to raising money for children’s hospitals.  Now it turns out he devoted much of his time when visiting those hospitals to sexually abusing or raping children.

Because of his enormous popularity, everyone was afraid of accusing him when he was alive.  Since his death last year, over 300 of his victims have emerged.   But while the British tabloids have had fresh revelations about Savile’s "tsunami of filth" splashed on their front pages every day for a couple of months now, the BBC ignored it.

Specifically, the Beeb’s Director-General, Mark Thompson, ignored it – to the point of canceling a broadcast on the Savile scandal, exposing the BBC’s role in covering it up.  This week (10/24), Thompson had the BBC issue his denial, claiming he had nothing to do with "shelving the programme."

What’s this got to do with us here in the Colonies?  This:  starting November 12^th, Mark Thompson becomes the CEO and Editor-in-Chief of the New York Times.  To put it mildly, Thompson is off to "a rocky start" at the bastion of America’s liberal media elite.

So rocky that the NYT itself ran a detailed and damaging story on its new CEO yesterday (10/25).  On Tuesday (10/23), the NYT’s Public Editor, Margaret Sullivan, questioned the wisdom of Thompson running her paper:

"Mr. Thompson has been quoted repeatedly saying he knew nothing about the investigation being conducted (on Savile)… How likely is that?… And for that matter, how likely is it that the Times Company will continue with its plan to bring Mr. Thompson on as chief executive?… His integrity and decision-making are bound to affect The Times and its journalism – profoundly. It’s worth considering now whether he is the right person for the job, given this turn of events."

This is going to end badly for the New York Times.  And anything that ends badly for the New York Times is good for America.

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Right now, it’s looking really, really good for Romney-Ryan.  Yet you may wonder about all these polls showing wildly varying results.  We suspect the lib ones like Time Mag’s on 10/24 showing Zero surging up 5 in Ohio – but just how are they rigged, and how do we get an honest assessment of them all?

The best I’ve found is a guy named Dave in Florida.  No kidding.  His website is Dave in Fla’s Poll Analysis.  There’s nobody better, and he makes the NYT’s Nate Silver look like a fool.  He exposes how much polls are "overweighted" for Dems – the Time/Ohio poll  had 10% more Dems than Pubs – then "reweights" them with several models, giving you a choice.

You can choose the 2008 turnout model, for example, which the lib polls always do, which asserts that Dem turnout and enthusiasm in 2012 will be the same as 2008, while that for Pubs will be just as depressed.  That, of course, is delusional.  Or you can choose 2004, 2010, or D+3 turnouts, plus 2012 registration.  All of the latest polls for Ohio, except for the 2008 model, show Romney clearly ahead.

Add to this the latest data-heavy analysis of the state of play in Ohio by Team Romney, making a strong case that its ground game will carry the day there.

And Ohio’s the ballgame.  Zero loses there, he’s presidential toast.  So – let’s move to where a number of TTPers want to go:  the Senate.

For the Pubs can take both the White House and the House on Capitol Hill, but if they don’t take the Senate as well, Harry Reid will make it his life’s purpose to screw the Pubs and America at every turn.

The HFR August 31 provided a Labor Day Senate Sitrep.  Let’s see how that (we’ll call it 8/31) stacks up two months later close to election eve, and compare it to Dave in Fla’s (DiF) analysis this week.

The current line-up is 53D, 47R.  The Pubs thus need a net 4-seat gain for a majority (or 3 for 50-50 with VP Ryan to break ties). There are 33 seats up:  23 Ds (including 2 phony Indies) and 10 Rs. 

Of the 10 Rs, 8/31 predicted 9 wins – including Heller in NV, Scott Brown in MA, Mourdock in IN, and Flake in AZ.  The 1 loss is Maine.

DiF’s odds now (10/24) for Pub wins: Barrasso-WY, Corker-TN, Hatch-UT, Wicker-MS, and Cruz-TX are for sure.  Maine is a loss.  The other 4:

* "Indiana 100%. Mourdock is up by 5 in this race, with 2 weeks to go and Romney leading by 15 in the state.  He will win this, no matter how much the media tries to twist the rape comment."

* "Nevada 100% – Heller is up 7 and over the 50% mark.  This race is over." 

* "Massachusetts 40% – Warren is holding her lead, but I distrust some of this fly-by-night polling.  I think she really leads by 2 in this race.  Brown will need to win the turnout battle."

* Arizona.  DiF doesn’t give the odds, but notes that Rasmussen has Romney over Zero 52-44, and Jeff Flake over Richard Carmona 50-44.  It’s Flake.

Consensus summary for the 10 R seats:  1, possibly 2, net loss (ME and MA).

Of the 23 Ds, 8/31 predicted 15 wins, and 8 losses in Connecticut, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

DiF odds now for Pub wins: 13 Dem wins for sure, one of which is Michigan with Stabenow over Hoekstra.  The other 10:

* "Nebraska 100% –  This is Ben Nelson’s seat, and Deb Fisher locked it up ages ago."

* "North Dakota 100% – Berg is now up 5 points in the race, almost to 50%, and Romney will win by double digits."

* "Ohio 75% – Josh Mandell is catching up to Sherrod Brown in all the ‘official’ polls.  However, they are all the same ones that are over sampling Democrats from D+6 to D+11 (7 polls like this now in the RCP average).  I don’t trust these polls.  If you look inside them and adjust to a normal Ohio turnout, Mandell leads.  Besides, even in the skewed versions of the polls, Brown can’t get to 50%.

* "Wisconsin 75% – Rasmussen is showing Thompson with a 2 point lead, and is polling better than Romney.  As Romney’s lead grows, so will Thompson’s.

* "Montana 60% – The polling didn’t change, but my opinion did.  Tester is an incumbent and stuck at 48%.  Undecideds will break toward Reherg, and Romney will have coattails.

* "Virginia 60% – Kaine is ahead 49-48 in Rasmussen.  I think Obama’s Navy gaffe is going to sink his chances, and Allen will pick up the 2 points he needs.

* "Connecticut 40% – McMahon is getting close again, and Murphy still can’t break 50%.  One recent poll (Rasmussen) puts her within 1.

* "Pennsylvania 40% – Casey’s top line number is stuck in the mid 40s, just like OH, MT, and FL.  Some polls are showing Smith getting very close.  This would be my upset special."

* "Florida 40% – Mack continues to trail, but Nelson seems to have a ceiling of 47%.  If Mack was closer, I would increase my confidence in this race."

* Missouri 35% – No new polling here.  It is a weird race, but I like Akin’s chances with Romney leading in the state by 12.

Consensus summary for the 23 D seats:  6, possibly up to 10, net losses.  Odds high for losing NE, ND, OH, WI, MT, VA; odds fair for losing CT, FL, MO, PA).

Bottom line: 8/31 predicted a net R gain of 7 seats, while DiF is now predicting a net R gain of between 4 and 8 seats.  The races that make the difference: Michigan, where I thought Pete Hoekstra would win and now he won’t; Connecticut and Massachusetts, where I thought McMahon and Brown would win but are now tossups;  Pennsylvania and Missouri, where I thought Smith and Akin would lose, but now they may not.  Florida remains a tossup for both of us.

 A net gain of 4 seems the worst case scenario, giving a bare 51-49 R majority with goodbye to Dirty Harry. If "Mittmentum" continues into a landslide, however, we might reach the HFR 8/31’s gain of 7 after all.

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I’m sure you know who’s the HFR Hero of the Week.  Who else but Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott, who has publically and legally notified UN busybodies to not even think of messing with Texas.  Or else your sorry UN butts will end up in the hoosegow.

Yesterday (10/25), he issued a formal letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, advising her that if UN observers violate Texas law they will be subject to arrest.  This guy is fabulous – and has he managed to enrage the entire global bureaucrat-busybody community.  Are there any of the other 49 state attorneys-general in America with his moxie?  A tip of the HFR’s ten-gallon hat to Greg Abbott!

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Here’s some fun:  a moonbat leftie trustfund baby who hates Zero’s guts for not being lefty enough.  John R. MacArthur’s grandfather (John D. MacArthur) was a self-made billionaire in insurance and real estate.  John R. used his inherited super-wealth to buy Harper’s magazine and turn it into liberal drool.

Now he’s written a book that’s an anti-Zero rant – only he hasn’t got the guts to publish it in English.  Believe it or not, it’s published in France in French:  L’Illusion Obama (The Illusion of Obama) – and the guy is in Paris now on a book tour promoting it.  One can only imagine the contempt his grandfather would have for him.

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Speaking of France, how about its 732 Generation?  They are demanding an end to mosque construction and endless kowtowing to Moslems in France.  "732" refers to the year of Charles Martel’s historic victory over a huge Moslem army bent on conquering all of Europe. 

Media Commies like those at Le Figaro compulsively call French patriots "far right extremists."  So they are traumatized to learn that the latest polls reveal 43% of the French view Islam negatively and Moslems in France to be a threat to their country and culture.  Charles Martel is becoming a great national hero in France again.  Just in time.

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We close with a note on French-Croatian Squids.  They are the favorite seafood delicacy of China’s most famous artist – because he is China’s most famous dissident, Ai Weiwei.  He never tires of poking fun at freedom-suppressing Chicoms – which is why he loves French-Croatian squids so much.  The three Mandarin characters for them, you see, are pronounced fa ke yu.

Last week’s HFR told you about Gangnam Style – South Korean pop singer Psy’s video viewed over 500 million times, and his ridiculing North Korea’s boy-thug ruler in Gangnam Kim Jong Style.

Yesterday (10/25), Ai Weiwei put up his own Ai Weiwei Does Gangnam Style video on YouTube, in which he wears dangling handcuffs and a neon-pink shirt.  The Chicoms blocked it within hours in ChicomLand – but here it is for you and the rest of the world:

 
Eleven days to go until the American people yell French-Croatian Squids! to the Zero in the White House.  He won’t be living there for much longer.