THE MYTH OF PUTIN’S STRENGTH IS CRUMBLING

Donald Trump is on a roll. Not only is he making history in the Middle East but also in Eastern Europe. By finally pushing back against the failing Russian regime, Trump has opened a path to something few expected even weeks ago: a faster end to Putin’s disastrous war.

If successful once again, it would be very hard for the Norwegians to deny Trump the Nobel Peace Prize next year. As a lucky side-effect, he may even, believe it or not, help the Russians rid themselves of Europe’s last 19th-century despot.

Trump’s pivot has two parts. First, he has made plain that Europe must stop freeloading on US taxpayers and take basic responsibility for its own security. This was long overdue.

For a generation, European governments preferred disarmament theatre and moral grandstanding, exaggerating Moscow’s strength to keep American cheques flowing, even as European energy firms continued to buy Russian oil. Trump was mocked for saying as much in his first term, and for insisting that Nato members honour their spending commitments. No one is laughing now.

Second, Trump has finally ditched the Cold War notion that Russia is so formidable that we must, to avoid World War Three, accept that it can bully its neighbors into vassalage.

Russia is a weakish, brittle power in rapid decline, with a sphere of influence that has been steadily shrinking for decades. The invasion of Ukraine was meant to arrest the decay; it accelerated it. The land seized at vast cost does not begin to compensate for the collapse of Russian clout in Central Asia, the Middle East and the rest of Europe.

The crucial moment came in late September, when Trump publicly embraced the proposition that Ukraine can recover all its territory. That was not just rhetorical flourish; it marked a clean break with the “both sides must yield” mush that undermined the heroic Ukrainian fight and flattered Kremlin mythology.

Words from a US president matter. Treat Russia as strong and stakeholders default to caution. Treat it as fragile and initiative is unlocked.

We are already seeing the practical effects. US support has shifted toward enabling strikes that degrade the aorta of the Russian war machine – its energy complex, refineries and logistics hubs – rather than feeding trench attrition that hurts the smaller side most.

Talking accurately about Russia’s under-reported weakness may also embolden the reformers and fence-sitters inside the Russian system who needed reassurance that the Leviathan is a rusting hulk, not a dreadnought.

And Trump has gone further, talking openly about supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawks – missiles that can reach deep into Russia, including Moscow, and may evade even its best air defenses. His meeting with Zelensky in the White House showed that he may still need to be persuaded, but it is notable that he has even admitted the possibility that they might be supplied.

This is not to deny risk. Moscow always warns of “dramatic escalation” when taboos against hitting targets inside Russia are punctured. But squeals are not strength.  Russia has been forced to reroute fuel flows, import goods it once exported, and swallow refinery disruptions that bite into war-fighting capacity.

With Tomahawks in the conversation, the more serious risk of escalation finally sits where it belongs: against Russia rather than Ukraine. The Kremlin’s bluff is being called. The sound is not a bear’s roar but a wince – and, one suspects, nervous shuffling in the corridors of Russian power.

This is what much of Europe still misses. For years, the line was that Russia is so mighty that only the US can contain it. The truer line is the opposite: Russia is so systemically weak that moral clarity, targeted pressure and support for Ukraine’s asymmetric strengths can move both the battlefield and Moscow’s politics.

Ironically, Washington has sobered up faster than a Europe still addicted to its old alibis.

Energy is the acid test. The EU banned seaborne Russian crude in 2022 but left pipeline derogations that Hungary and Slovakia still exploit. Even in 2025, several EU states increased purchases of Russian energy (LNG) versus 2024. France’s imports rose, as did the Netherlands’ and Belgium’s.

Hungary and Slovakia remained big buyers of crude and pipeline gas. Europe moralized in public, rationalized in private, and outrageously helped top up the Kremlin’s war chest.

By contrast, the US is now supplying intelligence, pressuring oil buyers and insurers, floating the Tomahawk threat and, most importantly, sending the correct political signal: Russia is perfectly beatable.

Europe should rediscover its inner spine and pile on. Stop pleading incapacity. Rebuild the munitions base. Above all, end the energy hypocrisy.

The Hungarian and Slovak crude derogations cannot be permanent. France and others buying Russian gas must explain how financing the Kremlin today squares with their Ukrainian liberation rhetoric. Align words with deeds and Putin’s options shrink further. He is already running out of rope faster than many realize.

It is worth remembering that regimes built on fear can crumble quickly once the myths of might and cunning are punctured. Russia’s economy is buckling; its army is depleted; morale is low; and Putin is manifestly not a strategic genius. He is a thug who has betrayed Ukrainians – and his own people.

Imagine what Russia might have achieved by now were it not trapped with a regime embracing a 19th-century mindset. Many Russians know that a leap into modernity requires retiring the men who have chained them to the past.

Wars never end with neat immaculate narratives. They end when the ammo, soldiers and money run out. Hamas learned it. Putin is close to learning it, too.

Mark Brolin is a geopolitical strategist and the author of ’Healing Broken Democracies’.