WHAT RUSSIA HAS LOST

Last week on January 24, a suicide bomber attack at Moscow’s Domodedovo Airport killed 36 people.  According to Russian intelligence, the terrorist act was perpetrated by someone from one of the predominantly Moslem areas of the North Caucasus region.

This latest tragedy highlights a number of conclusions about Putin’s policies and the fate of Russia that were already discernable – for what’s now crystal clear is that Russia under Putin has not only lost its war with terrorism, but more than that, it has lost its way as a civilized state and society and faces a very uncertain future.

It’s been nearly 12 years since Putin began building his reputation as a tough, no- nonsense leader by promising rather crudely to pursue terrorists everywhere, catch them in airport toilets and "waste them in the outhouse."

By picking Domodedovo Airport for the ninth serious terrorist attack in Moscow since then, the terrorists are telling the Russian people that Putin can talk all he wants but is incapable of protecting them.  And it’s not just Moscow; there were twice as many terrorist attacks in the North Caucasus and elsewhere in 2010 than in 2009.

It is argued that the Islamist insurgency in Chechnya is under control, ever since Putin appointed Ramzan Kadyrov as president of the republic.

To an extent it is, but at what price? Putin gave a carte blanche to a Chechen thug to put down the insurgency by whatever means he chose and he has had some success, though the insurgency is by no means decisively defeated.

In the meantime, Kadyrov’s incredibly brutal methods, including torture, kidnapping and murder of innocent relatives of suspected terrorists have transformed Chechnya into a lawless fiefdom where Kadyrov rules as a feudal satrap.

In the meantime, the original Chechen nationalist struggle for autonomy has been transformed into a region-wide radical Islamist movement aiming to establish a "Caucasus Emirate" under sharia law and get rid of the infidels.

The Chechens no longer play first fiddle in the leadership of this movement and the Islamist contagion has now spread throughout the region. Indeed, the person now suspected as the suicide bomber at Domodedovo appears to be a Slavic convert from Stavropol.

The result of this is that Russia will lose the North Caucasus, and in the medium rather than the long-term.

What has happened since this war began some sixteen years ago is that the brutality of the Russian army turned the native population not only against Moscow and Russia, but against the Russians as such. And not only in Chechnya, but also in Dagestan, Ingushetia and elsewhere.

As a result, an atmosphere of ethnic intolerance was created that drove most ethnic Russians away from the region in a de facto voluntary ethnic cleansing. Today there are virtually no Russians left, with less than one percent in Chechnya and Ingushetia and no more than 3% in Dagestan.

Beyond that, none of these places have even the beginning of a functional economy with 70% to 80% unemployment and the entire budget coming from Moscow. How long can that aid last if you end up with a serious unrest in Russia itself, or conversely with a more sensible government in the Kremlin?

There are now dozens of Russian scholars and specialists who believe that for its own good Russia should separate from the  North Caucasus.

And there is something else. Until now many in the West believed that in fighting Islamism, albeit brutally, Moscow was essentially on our side. That is no longer true.  

Right now the most important accomplices of radical Islam may be the Kremlin’s disastrous policies and warlords like Kadyrov. Seeking to gain a modicum of legitimacy, the latter, for instance, is already catering to sharia by advocating polygamy, forcing women in the hijab and limiting alcohol.

The total destruction of civil society and the rule of law throughout the region, has also left people no choice but to go back to Islam, with radical Islamization growing by leaps and bounds.

So what does all of this mean for Putin?

When Putin came to power in December of 1999 , he made an implicit deal with the Russian people to provide them with security and a gradual improvement of their economic well-being provided by high oil & gas prices, in exchange for lack of freedom.

He has now failed to deliver on all counts. 

What he has delivered instead is a corrupt system based on a symbiosis between authoritarian politics and mafia economics that is very close to the fascist model of government.

It may survive a while longer, but more and more people realize that it’s not just the terrorists that have condemned Russia and its people to insecurity, stagnation and decline.
 
Alex Alexiev is a visiting fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington D.C., and Contributing Editor to FamilySecurityMatters.org.