ROCKING THE CASTLE

An explosive primary season was capped by a nuclear bomb: the upset victory of Christine O’Donnell over Delaware political fixture Rep. Mike Castle in the GOP senate primary.

Ms. O’Donnell’s 53 percent to 47 percent win was the greatest tea party triumph over the GOP establishment.  But conservative insurgents also did surprisingly well elsewhere.  In New York’s gubernatorial primary, Carl Palladino clobbered the establishment favorite, former Rep. Rick Lazio.  In New Hampshire, Ovide Lamontagne nearly upset the long time favorite (and slightly less conservative) Kelly Ayotte in the senate race.

But for me, the returns with the greatest import for November came in Wisconsin.  That front runners Scott Walker and Ron Johnson easily won the GOP gubernatorial and senatorial nods is not surprising.  What is is that so many more people (614,321) voted in the Republican gubernatorial primary than in the Democrat primary (233,119).

More votes were cast for Democrats than for Republicans in the seven primaries Tuesday (the others were in Maryland, Massachussetts and Rhode Island).  But overall, Republicans finished the primary season with upwards of three million votes more than Democrats received.

The last time Republicans received more primary votes than Democrats did was in 1930. In both 1994 (a terrific year for Republicans) and 1946 (a really terrific year) Democrats won more primary votes than Republicans did.  You don’t need to be a weatherman to see which way the wind is blowing.

Voting in primaries is an imperfect measure of voter enthusiasm, but it’s better than any other, which is why I think the tight races tilt more toward Republicans than polls indicate.

Consider Wisconsin’s 7th district, long held by retiring Rep. David Obey, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee.  Most experts rate it a tossup.  But in the 7th, Republicans won 61,961 primary votes to 33,529 for Democrats.

The last Republican to carry Wisconsin in a presidential race was Ronald Reagan in 1984.  Sen. Russ Feingold, who now narrowly trails Mr. Johnson in polls, won re-election in 2004 with 56 percent of the vote.  If Democrats are in trouble in Wisconsin, where are they strong?

One place they’re stronger after Tuesday is Delaware, where Ms. O’Donnell’s triumph converts what had been a likely Republican pickup into an all but certain Democratic retention.  Public Policy Polling released a morning after poll showing Democrat Chris Coons ahead, 50-34.

Rep. Castle had a 52 percent rating from the American Conservative Union.  That is higher than the ACU rating for Idaho Democrat Walter Minnick (44) who the Tea Party Express, which provided Ms. O’Donnell with much of her financial backing, endorsed.  But Delaware Republicans were unwilling to accept half a loaf this year.

Democrats and most journalists are describing Ms. O’Donnell’s victory as a sign of Republican dissension that could cost the GOP control of the senate.  But Newsweek’s Howard Fineman left the Beltway bubble for a day, and now isn’t so sure:

“What I heard at a little polling place in Newark told me, even before the day’s election results were in, exactly what to expect in November,” Mr. Fineman wrote.  “An earthquake.”

“Almost every Republican voter I talked to wanted to vote for O’Donnell,” he wrote.  “I didn’t find a single Castle voter who said he or she would vote for Democrat Chris Coons if O’Donnell won.”

Democrat hopes for Republican dissension are wishful thinking, Mr. Fineman said, because people are angry at the president’s agenda.  “If Obama can’t do better, he may soon be dealing with Sen. O’Donnell from Delaware,” he concluded.

I doubt that.  But if control of the senate depended on the whims of Mr. Castle — as in 2001 they did on the whims of “Jumping Jim” Jeffords of Vermont — that wouldn’t be good for Republicans or conservatives.

It’s probable that by stiffening the spines of moderate Republicans (if only out of fright), Ms. O’Donnell’s primary victory will produce a more conservative senate than Mr. Castle could have by winning the general.

The tea party has brought new energy and (excepting Ms. O’Donnell) better candidates to the GOP.  Meanwhile, the Democrat National Committee has redesigned its logo.  It consists of a D inside what looks like a bullseye.  Given the mood of the electorate this year, that’s appropriate.