2010 SENATE SITREP

Things are suddenly going so badly for the Zerocrats now that the GOP has started to think "victory" in 2010.  But that’s for the House, where anything close to the Pubs’ 52-seat gain in 1994 would get their majority back.

What about the Senate?  November 2010 is a long ways away, but not that far for a "situation report" regarding the GOP’s chances for retaking the Senate.  Things not only can but undoubtedly will change drastically over the coming months, but here’s what and who to keep your eye on now.

With Minnesota’s embarrassment, Al "Diapers" Franken, giving the Dems 60 seats and the Pubs 40, it will take a massive switch of 11 seats for the latter to pull it off.

Switches of this magnitude are rare, but they do occur.  In 1958, the Dems gained a net 16 seats, while in 1980, the Pubs gained 12.  Both resulted in shifts of majority status.  Other years of large switches were 1994 with the Pubs up 8, and last year, 2008, with the Dems up 8 plus Specter’s defection for a net of up 9.

Next year, 36 seats are at stake, evenly split at 18 each between R’s & D’s.  Let’s dispense with the ones that seem now clearly safe.

Safe for Dems:  Blanche Lincoln (AR), Evan Bayh (IN), Barbara Mikulski (MD), Chuck Schumer (NY), Byron Dorgan (ND), Ron Wyden (OR), Pat Leahy (VT), Patty Murray (WA), Russ Feingold (WI).

That’s 9 out of 18 – although Patty "room temperature IQ" Murray is safe only because the Pubs can’t find a strong challenger.

Safe for Pubs:  Richard Shelby (AL), Lisa Murkowski (AK), John McCain (AZ), Johnny Isakson (GA), Mike Crapo (ID), Chuck Grassley (IA), Tom Coburn (OK), Jim DeMint (SC), John Thune (SD), Bob Bennett (UT).  That’s 10 of 18.

Also safe for the Pubs to keep are open seats in Kansas (the Dems haven’t won a Senate seat there since 1932), Kentucky, and Ohio – with candidates Rep. Todd Tiahart, Rand Paul (Ron Paul’s son), and former US trade rep. Rob Portman respectively.
 
The other GOP seat open due to retirement is Florida.  Good riddance to Mel "Amnesty" Martinez, but it’s complicated because Gov. Charlie Crist has to appoint a replacement who’ll just be a placeholder for him – as he intends to run himself next year.

Crist’s biggest problem, however, is that he’s a RINO who’ll be up against a very dynamic conservative state representative, Marco Rubio, in the primary.  Nonetheless, either one should come out on top of the Dem in November.

The remaining four of the Pub’s 18 are more iffy.

Louisiana’s David Vitter is looking "very good," according to Politico, because the Dems can’t find a credible challenger.  Let’s hope it stays that way.

It could stay that way for North Carolina’s Richard Burr.  The Dems are abysmally unpopular (Dem gov Beverly Perdue has an approval rating of 25%), he has no real challenger, but most Tarheels don’t know who he is (have you ever heard of him?).  He’ll probably coast.

On to New Hampshire.  With Judd Gregg retiring, it looks like a race between conservative Kelly Ayotte and squishy lib Paul Hodes.  Ms. Ayotte is the hugely popular state Attorney General who is pro-gun, pro real marriage, and won a US Supreme Court victory upholding her state’s parental notification law (Ayotte v. Planned Parenthood).  She will clean Congressman Hodes’ clock.

That leaves Missouri.  This one’s a toss-up and a very interesting one.  Vying in the Pub primary will be long time Congressman and party elite hack Roy Blunt and former state treasurer Sarah Steelman.  Sarah is a whip-smart, charismatic, articulate, drop-dead gorgeous Ayn Rand pro-American conservative.  Read about her in the link.  Wow.

Conservatives all over the country should get behind Sarah.  If she beats Blunt, she’ll be up against Dem Robin Carnahan, current secretary of state and daughter of former governor Mel Carnahan.  She’ll have her hands full, but if we all get behind her, she has an excellent chance.

The bottom line so far is that the GOP has a good to excellent chance of retaining all 18 of their currently held seats next year.

Now let’s look at the Dem seats in jeopardy.

Obviously, Illinois’ Roland "Tombstone" Burris is toast.  He’ll be wiped out in the primary, most likely by state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias.  Outside of South Chicago, the entire state is suffering a major backlash against Zero and decades of Dem corruption.  So Zero’s former seat should be easy pickings.

But then the GOP front-running candidate, Rep. Mark Kirk, became one of the Traitor Eight GOP Congresscritters to vote for Cap and Trade (6/26).  This so infuriated GOP state chairman Andy McKenna that McKenna may now challenge Kirk in the primary.  No conservative can support Kirk after his vote.  So this race remains in deep limbo.

Chris Dodd in Connecticut is burnt toast.  Whomever comes out on top of the GOP primary will take him – but watch out in particular for pro-capitalist financial guru Peter Schiff.  Schiff in the Senate would be something to really celebrate.

We can also say good riddance to Nevada’s Harry Reid in 2010.  Running against him will be GOP state chairman (note she calls herself "chairman" on her website) Sue Lowden who has revitalized the party and is wiping Reid out in the polls.  Reid is history.

And it looks like Pennsylvania’s Snarlin’ Arlen Specter will be history as well.   Conservative Pat Toomey is way out in front and will stay there.

How about next door in Delaware?  Joe Biden gave up his seat which is held by a placeholder, Ted Kaufman, so his son Beau (now state attorney general) can have it next year. In the way, however, is a marvelously telegenic conservative, Christine O’Donnell.

It looks like the nomination is hers, now that septuagenarian RINO Congresscritter Mike Castle won’t run.  If conservatives around the country get behind Christine, the Senate seat could be hers.

Looking north to New York, there’s Dem Kirsten Gillibrand, appointed to Hillary Clinton’s vacated seat.  Her fate may be tied to the race for governor.  Dem gov David Patterson insists on running even though he’s wildly unpopular.  Pubs are praying that Rudy Giuliani will go up against him and tear him apart. 

If Rudy runs, then it’s likely that former Pub gov George Pataki will run against Gillibrand.  If this happens, the odds are high that both Rudy and Pataki will win.

Out west in Colorado, Dem Michael Bennett, appointed to replace now Interior Sec’y Ken Salazar, is a total political neophyte who’s never run a campaign before.  He’ll be up against a solid conservative, Weld County district attorney Ken Buck.  He’s got quite an impressive background and really impresses folks with his pro-American principles – as this story in a local Colorado paper shows.  Buck can take Bennett.

Way out west, as far as you can get in Hawaii, you’d think even at 86 Dem Daniel Inouye would be a shoe-in.  The only chance the GOP has is if term-limited Pub gov Linda Lingle takes him on.  Lingle is still a long shot as Inouye is an institution, having been Hawaii’s senator since 1963.  She’s nonetheless very popular, so don’t write her off.

Now for California where a big surprise is brewing.  Moonbat leftie Barbara Boxer may go down for the count, flattened by two other dames.  These are real women, the kind that Feminazis are terrified of. 

Arnold is term-limited as gov and isn’t running for senate.  Running to replace Arnold will be former E-Bay CEO Meg Whitman, creator of a multi-billion dollar company and two million jobs.  The Dem running against her will likely be either former "Governor Moonbeam" himself, Jerry Brown (he’ll be 72), or the ultimate limp-wristed metrosexual, San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsome.  Meg will eat either of them for lunch.

Alongside Meg running against Boxer will be Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard.  These two extraordinarily accomplished and savvy women are going to electrify California politics next year.  Kiss Boxer goodbye.

So where’s that bottom line now?  The GOP gains five – Connecticut, Colorado, California, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.  Maybe, maybe Delaware and New York.  The rest are too iffy.  Odds are the Dems won’t take a single seat away from the Pubs.

And in sum, keep your eyes on:  Todd Tiahart, Rand Paul, Rob Portman, Marco Rubio, Kelly Ayotte, Sarah Steelman, Peter Schiff, Sue Lowden, Pat Toomey, Christine O’Donnell, Ken Buck, and the two mega-ladies in California.

Thus the 2010 Senate Sitrep is that it will be a good year for the Republicans with a net gain of 5-7 seats.  And a number of RINOs will be replaced by conservatives.  But gaining the majority is a bridge too far.  Sarah Palin will have to take her party across that bridge in 2012.

Ps:  Many TTPers have a good local understanding of the races in their state.  I am looking forward to their comments in the Forum!

Pps:  What about Texas and Massachusetts, you ask? 

On July 30 in a fit of hubristic idiocy, RINO Kay Bailey Hutchinson announced she was resigning her seat effective this fall to run against GOP gov Rick Perry.  This is beyond stupid.  Perry will wipe her out in the primary, with Sarah Palin vigorously campaigning for him.  Current GOP  Lt. Gov. Dave Dewhurst – a world-ranked rodeo cowboy, by the way – will end up with Kay’s seat.

And as we all know, Teddy Kennedy will die soon, but the state has a moonbat Dem gov, Deval Patrick, who will of course replace him with another Dem.