OBAMA PRESIDENCY, INTERNATIONAL CRISIS

Among the first fruits of an Obama presidency will be an international
crisis, his running mate said in Seattle last weekend.

"Mark my words.  It will not be six months before the world tests Barack
Obama like they did John Kennedy," Sen. Joe Biden said at a fund-raiser.

"Watch, we're going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to
test the mettle of this guy."

Sen. Obama's response to the crisis may not seem adequate, Sen. Biden said.
"We're going to need you to use your influence, your influence within the
community, to stand with him, because it's not going to be apparent
initially, it's not going to be apparent that we're right," he told the
Democratic fat cats.

"You all are going to be sitting here a year from now going, 'Oh my God, why
are they there in the polls?  Why is the polling so down?  Why is this thing
so tough?" Sen. Biden said.  "There are going to be a lot of you who want to
go 'Whoa, wait a minute, yo, whoa, whoa, I don't know about that decision."

This is the most remarkable thing a vice presidential candidate has ever
said about the top of his ticket during a campaign.  But Sen. Biden's
remarks drew little attention from journalists who are loathe to draw
attention to information uncongenial to Sen. Obama's prospects in November.

This may in part be because Sen. Biden is given to saying remarkable things
which aren't true:  That Franklin Roosevelt (who wasn't elected until 1932)
went on television (which didn't go into widespread commercial use until
after World War II) to explain the causes of the stock market crash of 1929;
that Hezbollah has been driven out of Lebanon; that J-O-B-S is a three
letter word.  But Sen. Biden was picked for his alleged foreign policy
expertise, and he has been receiving classified intelligence briefings.
Jack Kennedy had two foreign policy tests early in his presidency, flunking
the first and passing the second.

At their summit meeting in Vienna in June, 1961, Soviet Premier Nikita
Khruschev concluded Kennedy could be pushed around.  The immediate
consequence of the summit was the building of the Berlin Wall.  In response,
President Kennedy made his famous "Ich bin ein Berliner" (I am a jelly
doughnut) speech, but otherwise did nothing.

After Kennedy failed to come to the aid of Cuban exiles during the Bay of
Pigs invasion in April, 1961, Khruschev concluded he could put ballistic
missiles in Cuba.  The result was the Cuban missile crisis.  This time
Kennedy stood firm.  The missiles were removed.  But we came very close to
nuclear war.

What tests might await a President Obama?  "I can give you four or five
scenarios from where it might originate," Sen. Biden told the Seattle fat
cats, mentioning the Middle East and Russia in particular.

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported Thursday senior Iranian officials are
urging a preemptive strike on Israel, before Israel could launch a strike on
Iran's nuclear facilities.  Could this be what prompted Sen. Biden's
musings?

When Russia invaded Georgia in August, Sen. Obama's initial response was to
urge the tiny victim of aggression to exercise "restraint."  Might Russia
invade other neighbors?  Ukraine?  Azerbaijan?

The essence of Sen. Biden's remarks is that voters will be buying trouble if
they choose Sen. Obama in November, because America's enemies are unlikely
to "test the mettle" of John McCain.
Sen. Biden, according to Michael Crowley of the New Republic, thought an
appropriate response to the 9/11 attacks would be to send a check, "no
strings attached" for $200 million to the mullahs in Tehran.  So I don't
think much of his judgment.  But I do think he's right in this instance.  A
President Obama will be challenged by our enemies, and he'll flinch.

But even if Sen. Biden's prediction is correct, to say such a thing three
weeks before an election shows remarkably poor judgment. Having "Slow Joe" a
heartbeat away is almost  as disconcerting as an Obama presidency.