REPUBLICANS DESERVE TO LOSE

A message from Mississippi has interrupted the leisurely cruise Republicans in Congress have been taking up the river De Nile.  Democrat Travis Childers soundly defeated Republican Greg Davis in a special election in a House district that President Bush carried by 25 percentage points in 2004.  

Mr. Childers' victory completes a trifecta for Democrats in once heavily Republican districts.   On May 3, Democrats won a seat in Louisiana in a district President Bush had won by 19 percentage points in 2004, and in March a Democrat won the seat vacated by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert in Illinois, which Mr. Bush had carried by 11 percentage points.

More than twice as many people voted in Democratic presidential primaries than in GOP contests through Super Tuesday, when races in both parties were competitive.  You don't need a weatherman to tell which way the wind is blowing.  The Republican brand today is as popular as Tylenol's was during the cyanide poison scare.

The bitter wind from Mississippi has replaced complacency with panic, but many Republicans don't know what to do about it. 

Many blame President Bush, with good reason.  His dad has an aircraft carrier named after him.  But if the Navy wants to name a ship after Dubya, it ought to be a submarine, to commemorate how deep his party has plunged under his leadership.  He's the most unpopular president in the history of polling, plunging beneath the depths plumbed by Harry Truman after he fired Douglas MacArthur during the Korean War.   

But the larger reason for the troubles of congressional Republicans is that they are viewed (alas, correctly) as being motivated by little else than self enrichment.

Voters now prefer Democrats to Republicans on all ten of the "key issues" pollster Scott Rasmussen tracks, even though they disagree with what Democrats advocate on some of those issues.

For instance, "Government Ethics and Corruption" is a "very important" issue for 71 percent of likely voters, Mr. Rasmussen said.  These voters prefer Democrats on this issue, 45 percent to 26 percent.

Part of the reason for this is the tendency of the news media to mention a miscreant's party affiliation in the lead if he or she is a Republican, but to mention it deep in the story or not at all if the offender is a Democrat.  And part of the reason is because questionable behavior by Republicans gets more media attention than questionable behavior by Democrats.

But the larger part of the reason is people like Sen. Ted Stevens and Reps. Don Young and Jerry Lewis, all of whom are under investigation by the FBI.  They may join disgraced former representatives Randy Cunningham and Bob Ney in federal prison, but they retain their positions of power in their respective GOP caucuses.

Alaskans Stevens and Young are the premier GOP porkmeisters, being responsible for, among other things, the infamous "bridge to nowhere."  Lewis is barely a half step behind.

Republicans should stay as far away from pork as do devout Muslims and Jews, because their base is allergic to it. 

Democrats expect their representatives to loot the public treasury on their behalf, and don't mind much if their senator or congressman takes a little for himself along the way.  But most Republican voters want taxes low and government honest, and are infuriated when their lawmakers behave like Democrats.  Anger over the lack of fiscal discipline is the chief reason why contributions to GOP congressional committees have plunged.

If Republicans in Congress could set aside their personal greed and grow a spine, there would be opportunity.  The Democrat-led Congress is the least popular in the history of polling.  The Democrats are committed to massive tax increases which, according to Mr. Rasmussen, 60 percent of Americans think will hurt the economy.  The Democrats are about to nominate a weak general election candidate, and the Republicans have in John McCain a candidate uniquely qualified to take advantage of Barack Huseein Obama's shortcomings.

But for Republicans in Congress, their addiction to pork is more important than political survival.  On Wednesday, nearly half the Republicans in the House voted for a farm bill so stuffed with pork that President Bush — himself no slouch when it comes to spending — plans to veto it.

Democrats may not deserve to win the congressional elections this fall, but Republicans deserve to lose them.

Jack Kelly is a former Marine and Green Beret and a former deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. He is national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.