HALF-FULL REPORT 04/01/16

Welcome to the April Fools’ HFR!  Let’s get started with Being Clean Inside and Out with Royal Orchard Fruity Soap.

Running marathons en masse has become over-the-top popular in China.  Last Sunday (3/27) 20,000 ran one in a suburb (only 3.7 million) of Guangzhou (gwang-joe, formerly Canton, the big city near Hong Kong) called Qingyuan (ching-when).

Or they tried to run one.  As a promotion, Royal Orchard distributed thousands of its soap bars to the participants – which many mistook for a protein bar and ate as they were running.  As reported by the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, People’s Daily, over 12,000 got sick as dogs requiring medical assistance.

Oops.  Maybe it was an early April Fools’ joke gone sideways.

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This just might be the best April Fools’ gag to pull on a colleague at work today:

Sure better than a cup of coffee to wake them up…..

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Or you could discretely insert the head of a wooden snake in the lettuce bin at Wal-Mart:

And now for your April Fools viewing pleasure – a lesson in why not to steal purses:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f99J7HwkYMI

Whatever you do – or have done to you – have fun today.  Laughter is the best medicine for whatever ails you.

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Since the Daily Mail ran this story about a Polish brewery’s unique recipe for its “Bottled Instinct Beer” on Wednesday – 3/30 instead of 4/01 – I’m not sure it’s a gag.  Whatever, I’m not thirsty.

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Sad April Fools for Cruz Birthers:  they lost yet again yesterday (3/31) with the Pennsylvania Supreme Court upholding a lower court decision that Cruz is indeed a “natural born” citizen eligible for the presidency.

The internet is awash with speculation on Trump’s campaign and Trump himself falling apart this week.  I discussed it in The Trump Titanic yesterday.  This morning, Peggy Noonan in the Wall Street Journal had a very insightful and compassionate observation about Trump supporters:

“I speak to Trump supporters a lot, and they are getting embarrassed by his being a large blob of sheer dumb grossness. He is stuck at nutty. With women nationally Mr. Trump is currently more popular than cholera, but not by much.  The sadness here is that Mr. Trump’s supporters are earnest and full of concern for America and he isn’t worthy of them. Maybe he only harnessed their legitimate anger but can’t do anything with it because he’s not as serious as so many of them are, but a flake, a dope with poor impulse control.”

I’ve known Peggy for 30 years, since she joined the Reagan Speechwriters in early 1986.  She is saying something here that I suggest TTPers who remain Trump supporters take to heart:  Trump is not worthy of you.  Peggy’s right.

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There’s something else Trump supporters need to accept:  Trump will not be the GOP presidential nominee.  You can take that to the bank.

From the WaPo this morning:  Trump is already the least popular candidate of either the Dems or Pubs of modern times.  75% of women don’t like him, 66% of indies, 80% of young voters, close to half of all Republicans, and 67% of the whole electorate.

And it’s going to get worse because he has a compulsion to dig the hole he’s in ever deeper.  This means if he’s the GOP nominee, the Pubs lose the Senate and very possibly the House.  Bottom line:  the RNC will do whatever it takes to make sure he’s not the nominee.

Here’s what the RNC is praying for:  Wisconsin (4/05) is Trump’s Waterloo, without a single delegate; now perceived as a loser, he gets far fewer delegates in New York (4/19 – for how complex NY delegate selection is, see Green Papers); the subsequent negative momentum prevents him from getting a total delegate count much above 1000 to 1100, over 200 short.

In other words, he must be prevented from gaining the 1,237 majority to win on the first ballot.  And here’s another factor pointed out by ace psephologist Nate Silver:

Nate Silver Verified account ‏@NateSilver538

People may be underestimating how much of a problem it is for Trump that most RNC delegates will not personally be fans of Trump.

10:33 AM – 31 Mar 2016

Note this scenario leaves out Cruz.  The RNC at this point would rather have Kasichaos – after all, they’re Rinos – and they argue that he beats Hillary by almost 7% in poll match-ups, while she and Cruz are even and she obliterates Trump.

But if Kasichaos wins only a handful of more delegates and no, or at most one or two, more primaries, it will be hard to rig the rules so his name can be placed in contention.  That’s why Cruz fired a shot over the RNC’s bow yesterday (3/31), warning it not to change the 8-state delegate majority rule (40b) now in place.

Keeping the 8-state rule insures only Trump and Cruz can be nominated and freezes Amnesty John – or any ringer like Ryan or Romney – out.  The RNC may rig the rules anyway as with Cruz in the White House, they’d keep the House and Senate but lose most of their juice.  Cruz would shut down their corrupt money scams with lobbyists.  Or they may hold their nose and go with Ted.

So who the nominee will be isn’t set – but who the nominee won’t be is:  Trump.

It’s for the best.  The most accurate description I’ve heard of Trump is:  “He’s everything we teach our children not to be.”

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OK – enough of this.  Let’s go geopolitical.

You may want to secure an adult beverage because this is going to get engrossing.  An intriguing connection between Vladimir Putin and Indiana Jones arose this week.

We first go to Palmyra – the 3,000 year-old World Heritage Site in eastern Syria seized by ISIS a year ago, which the deranged jihadists proceeded to destroy because it was heathen.

It was recaptured this week by Bashar al-Assad’s government forces enabled by Russian fighters bombing the blazes out of entrenched ISIS crazies.  The London Daily Mail has a terrific photo essay on what Palmyra looks like now – fortunately more intact than expected.

Now that he’s consolidated Assad’s rule, what’s Putin’s next target?  Something called The Azaz Corridor.

That’s the encircled “safe zone” between the two Kurdish-held areas of Kobane and Afrin on the Syria-Turkey border.  “Safe” for whom?  ISIS.  The corridor is how Turkey’s Islamist leader Recip Erdogan provides protection, supplies, weapons, and medical aid to ISIS, and how ISIS transports its oil to Turkey.

ISIS could not exist without Erdogan’s sponsorship, which is made possible via the Azaz Corridor.  Erdogan has threatened all out war and military invasion of Syria should Assad make any attempt to shut the corridor down.  Putin is sick and tired of this, hates Erdogan’s guts, and will soon call Erdogan’s bluff by seizing the Azaz Corridor.

And he’ll do it not with Assad’s forces, but with the Kurds – giving the Kurds control of the Syria-Turkey border all the way from Aleppo (a predominately Kurdish city) to Iraq (where Turkey, Syria, and Iraq come together).  Without their sanctuary in Turkey, ISIS will be closed off from the world.  Assad’s forces will proceed to take the ISIS capital of Raqqa and wipe ISIS out.

Yet Putin knows he can’t stop there.  He can’t leave Erdogan free to strike back. He’s got to keep on the offensive.  Which brings us to Incirlik. That’s the Incirlik Air Base with the fighter jet icon in the top left corner of the map.

It is a US military installation, and on Tuesday (3/29), the Pentagon announced the evacuation of all families and dependents from it.

Why?  That gets us to Indiana Jones.

In Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, Jones’ and his father’s (played by Sean Connery) search for the Holy Grail takes them to the city of “Alexandretta”, capital of “the Republic of Hatay.”  Alexandretta is a real place, founded by Alexander the Great in 333 BC, now renamed Iskenderun (Iskendar is the Turkish rendering of Alexander).  And there was an actual Republic of Hatay, of which Alexandretta was the capital, during the time in which the Indiana Jones movie was set: 1938.

I told the story in Indiana Jones and the Alawite Apostasy back in August 2007.  The story of how Turkey stole Hatay from Syria and made it into a Turkish province.

To this day, Syria has never renounced its claim on Hatay.  You can see why – it cuts off northern Syria’s access to the Med.  Now we get to the nub.  The population of Hatay is 1.5 million – and well over half of them are Kurds.  Iskenderun is predominately a Kurdish city today.

You can see the dots.  Putin has brokered a deal between Assad and the Kurds.  With all the help Putin can muster, the Kurds seize the Azaz Corridor, enabling Assad to seize Raqqa, then all together with their Russian godfather, start a campaign to destabilize and eventually take Hatay back for Syria.

Kurdish Syria would be given considerable autonomy – and Iskenderun would be its provincial capital.  The Turkish people in response would sweep Erdogan away.

Oh, and with ISIS defeated and Syria consolidated and stable, all those Syrian welfare migrants to Europe can now return.  All the EU needs to do as a demonstration of gratitude is not bug Putin for taking Crimea and a bite out of eastern Ukraine.

That’s how Putin plays chess.  There’s good reasons to let him win this game.  Which is why Incirlik is being evacuated.  It’s right next to Hatay.  The Pentagon has decided the best move is to stay out of the way and let Putin play this out.

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Now to the HFR Hero of the Week.  She’s a French lady named Laurence Rossignol.  As the Families Secretary in the current Hollande government, on Wednesday (3/30) she publicly compared Moslem women wearing burqas to “negroes who supported slavery” – invoking French Enlightenment philosopher Montesquieu (1689-1755) and his famous essay “On the Enslavement of Negroes.”

The Daily Mail says she sparked “outrage” – but then ridicules the fashion designers Rossignol condemns for trying to make money creating “Islam fashion” by showing pictures of the laughable Marks & Spencer “burqini” swim clothes.

The outrage died off when Paris’ most famous fashion mogul, Yves Saint Laurent’s partner Pierre Bergé, supported Rossignol:

“I am scandalized.  Creators should have nothing to do with Islamic fashion. Designers are there to make women more beautiful, to give them their freedom, not to collaborate with this dictatorship which imposes this abominable thing by which we hide women and make them live a hidden life.

These creators who are taking part in the enslavement of women should ask themselves some questions.  They should renounce the money and have some principles.”

Good for him and good for her.  You can see why Laurence along with Pierre are the Heroes of the Week.

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We close with the funniest – and most revealing – April Fools’ story of the day.

The Chicoms have banned April Fools’ in China.

The Xinhua government news agency announced today that “’April Fools’ Day’ is not consistent with our cultural tradition, or socialist core values.”  Quite a confession.  The Chicoms just took off their clothes and showed the world their greatest vulnerability – they can’t stand to be made fun of.  What an opportunity.

I guess this also means that Bernie Sanders can’t support April Fools’ Day either, right?

Have as much fun as you can today!