THE PRINCE AND THE POTUS

The Prince and the POTUS

Things change. But if change isn’t punctuated by dramatic events, we tend to be slow the grasp its significance.

Consider how differently Americans regarded Germany and Japan in 1961 than in 1945.

The changes in the Middle East in the 16 years since 9/11 are almost as profound as were the changes in Germany and Japan between 1945 and 1961. But because they weren’t ushered in by the atomic bomb, we haven’t paid as much attention to them.

I’ve regarded Saudi Arabia as our most dangerous enemy in the Middle East, because the Saudi royal family financed Wahhabi madrassas and mosques all over the world, Wahhabism/Salafism is the source of Sunni Islamist terror.

But Saudi Arabia’s rulers today are more like Konrad Adenauer and Ludwig Erhard than Hitler or Himmler.

While most of us weren’t paying attention:

*Saudi Arabia became our most valuable ally in the Middle East – maybe in the world.

*Israel and Saudi Arabia became allies.

*The Israeli/Saudi alliance became militarily more advanced than the United States.

*The long awaited Reformation of (at least Sunni) Islam began.

Why did it happen?

Because of al Qaida. Osama bin Laden hated Israel and America. But most of all, Osama hated the Saudi royal family. Most Americans didn’t know this, or forgot it. The Saudi royals haven’t.

Because of the Iranian nuclear program. The mullahs in Tehran hate Sunnis even more than they hate Christians and Jews.

Because of Obama. Israel was the only country he treated as an enemy, Iran the only country he treated as an ally. Zero’s dalliance with Iran was an existential crisis for Saudi Arabia as well as for Israel.

Because of all the bloodshed in Iraq and Syria. Muslims don’t like being slaughtered by Islamist terrorists any more than we do.

In response to Al Qaida terror plots and Iranian nukes, the Saudi royals reformed their military and police, spend lavishly in Israel on weapons development.

We see in Youtube videos sophisticated drones for reconnaissance, targeting and weapons delivery; hypersonic rockets with thermobaric warheads, a heads up display like fighter pilots have for infantrymen.

Thanks to Obama’s malign neglect of our military, we don’t have weapons so advanced.

The de facto alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia began at least a decade ago, Saudi military reforms a few years before that.

The pace of change accelerated dramatically after Jan. 22nd, 2015 – when Salman bin Abdulazziz al Saud became king, Prince Mohammed bin Salman became minister of defense.

The Iraqi army fled in terror when ISIS captured Mosul (pop then 1.1 million) in 2014, abandoning to the enemy hundreds of modern U.S. tanks and fighting vehicles.

The Iraqi army collapsed again when ISIS captured Ramadi, just 63 miles from Baghdad, in May, 2015. The siege of Baghdad would be next, many predicted.

But all of a sudden, Iraqi armed forced forces got lots better. The liberation of Mosul will be studied in war colleges everywhere as the way to conduct urban combat with minimal friendly and civilian casualties.

With the liberation of Tal Afar Aug. 31, ISIS effectively has been expelled from Iraq.

Raqqa in Syria, capital of the ISIS mini-state, is surrounded, more than half the city (pop 220,000) has been retaken.

After Raqqa falls, Deir al Zour (pop 212,000), on the Euphrates about 280 miles northeast of Damascus and 180 miles southwest of Mosul, will be the only ISIS stronghold remaining.

The impending doom of ISIS will be of little benefit to Syrian dictator Bashir Assad – who has been more of an ally to ISIS than an enemy – or to Assad’s masters in Tehran.

The Syrian Democratic Forces, the rebel group (ostensibly) leading the assault on Raqqa, is as hostile to Assad as to ISIS.

To become so good so soon after having been so bad, the Iraqi armed forces had to have help.

To be kicking the (feces) out of ISIS, the SDF – which didn’t exist before October, 2015 – has to be getting lots and lots of help.

Some of it comes from us. To keep ISIS from massacring Yazidi women and children, President Obama in 2014 reluctantly authorized limited military assistance to Iraq.

But Zero made sure it would do little good. U.S. troops couldn’t engage the enemy. Obama forbade the use of ground controllers, which made air strikes ineffective.

It’s not coincidence that most progress against ISIS has taken place since Jan. 20.

But it wasn’t us who provided the most important help. The de facto state visit of the Moqtada al Sadr to Riyadh July 30 was a clue who did.

You may remember the Moqtada as the number one Iranian puppet in Iraq, the head of the largest Shia militia. Now he’s calling for disbanding all Shia militias.

Though roughly two thirds of Iraqis are Shia, Iraq is turning away from Iran, toward the Sunni Arab states.

Photos from Raqqa feature SDF fighters, many of whom are attractive women. But commandos from other Arab states do the heavy lifting. (We provide artillery and air support, now with ground controllers directing targeting.)

Somebody very skilled (not us) has assassinated many Hezbollah leaders in Syria.

If push comes to shove with North Korea, it would be good to have somebody that skilled as an ally. So it’s good Saudi Arabia has a defense treaty with Japan, the UAE with South Korea.

The chief driver of change is Mohammed bin Salman, who turned 32 last month. MbS, as he is known by his internet moniker, is overwhelmingly popular with young Saudis – a good thing, because 70 percent of Saudis are under age 30.

MbS is the first Saudi royal to be educated entirely in Saudi Arabia, rather than at universities in the West. That may be why he sounds like a conservative Republican. Read Vision 2030, his plan for Saudi Arabia’s future.

Saudi Arabia will become a world power through free enterprise, economic diversification, education, strong defense, limited government and religious toleration, MbS predicts.

“Our vision is a strong, thriving, stable Saudi Arabia that provides opportunity for all,” he said. “Our vision is a tolerant country with Islam as its constitution and moderation as its method.”

If it’s true MbS secretly visited Israel earlier this month, he’s serious about tolerance.  This wouldn’t have been the first time MbS met with senior Israeli officials.

I’m a Christian. Jesus said: “I’m the Way, the Truth and the Life. No one comes unto the Father but by me.” I believe Him.

But I’ve no doubt many wonderful people are Muslims – just as many wonderful people are Buddhists, Hindus, agnostics. I can think of nothing more likely to bring peace on Earth than if Muslims become tolerant of people of other faiths.

Islam has an especially bloody history. But nothing that’s happened in the Middle East is bloodier than the Thirty Years War (1618-48), during which half the people in southern Germany were killed. By religiously intolerant Christians.

Christians have been tolerant of each other, and for people of other faiths, for 300 years, give or take, chiefly as a consequence of the Protestant Reformation.

When the overwhelming majority of Muslims treat Islamists as heretics, get as good at killing them as the Saudis have, what a wonderful world this could be.

MbS spearheads an Islamic Reformation. Mohammed bin Salman may one day be regarded as important a world historical figure as Martin Luther.

In the meantime, MbS gets along famously with President Trump, is annoying all the right people.

“President Trump and Prince Mohammed – the old fraudster and the young hothead. It’s an unsettling combination whose possible consequences are greatly to be feared,” fretted the (very) left wing British newspaper the Guardian.

Feared – why?  Because that would upset Putin and his Mullah buddies in Tehran, you see.  Bad news for Lefties, though, is great news for the rest of the world.

Jack Kelly is a former Marine and Green Beret, and was the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force during the Reagan Administration.  Until his retirement in January 2017, he was the national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.