MY MERRY CHRISTMAS THANKS TO TTPERS

I’m writing to wish TTPers a Merry Christmas, and to thank you all from the bottom of my heart for making mine more merry.

My Christmas figures to be merry, because the odds are now substantial – and are rising – that it won’t be my last.

When I saw in July the blood test numbers that led to the diagnosis of multiple myeloma, they were all very bad.

The turn around began in late August, after the first 3-week round of outpatient chemotherapy. The decline in my cancer symptoms was spectacular, said my oncologist, who couldn’t keep the amazement out of his voice. The worst of my bad numbers plunged from 93 to 5.

There’ve been further declines, some of them substantial, in chemo rounds 2, 3, 4, and 5, which was completed last week. Typically, there are only 4 rounds of outpatient chemo before the stem cell transplant, the key to the treatment regimen. But it was working so well the oncologists decided to do more.

All the key numbers are now just a scooch above normal. I appear to be near remission even before the stem cell transplant.

Average life expectancy after the transplant is north of five years, and is rising rapidly. The big decline in my cancer symptoms during outpatient chemo suggests I may do better than average among those who have transplants.

I don’t know why I responded so spectacularly well to outpatient chemo, but I’m sure the prayers of TTPers and others who’ve been praying for me have had a lot to do with it.

Many of you also have offered tips – some of them quite detailed – on how to fight cancer. I’m trying a number of them, particularly those pertaining to diet. But I’m very grateful for all, because the fact you took the trouble to make them indicates much more than a pro forma level of concern.

The transplant phase of my treatment begins this Thursday, with a day of testing at the Hillman Cancer Center here in Pittsburgh. I’ll meet with Dr. Raptis – the head cheese at Hillman – next week to discuss the test results. If no red flags pop up, I’ll go back to Hillman New Year’s Eve to have a catheter inserted in my chest.

I’ll be back at Hillman Jan. 5 to have the oncologists/surgeons collect healthy stem cells to reinsert into my body after they’ve nuked the cancerous one with a megadose of chemo. They need 160 million of the little guys, so collection will take 1 to 4 days. Since this will be done outpatient, I really, really hope they can get all they need in a day.

I’m slated to enter the hospital as an inpatient the week of the 11^th. First will be the chemo, which will make me sick as a dog. After a few days to recover, the healthy stem cells harvested earlier will be transplanted, which also will make me sick as a dog.

The docs will keep me in the hospital until they think enough of my immune system has recovered to make it safe for me to be back in the world. The average inpatient stay is 19 days. One guy was out in 13, others were in for up to a month. I expect to be back home by the first week in February, but it will take until mid to late April for me to recover fully.

* * * *

Enough about my cancer. Jack Wheeler asked me to comment on the cancer currently afflicting the GOP.

If Donald Trump is the nominee, the GOP will get pounded at the polls like it did in 1964 when Goldwater was the nominee, both Jack and Charles Krauthammer think.

I think it’d be much worse than that. Barry Goldwater was a Republican and a stalwart conservative. His nomination was a necessary precursor to Ronald Reagan. Trump believes only in self promotion.

Many thoughtful conservatives think he is a stalking horse for Hillary. I’m inclined to agree. But I’m not as worried as they are about this, because Trump isn’t going to win the nomination. He may not win a single primary or caucus.

Nate Silver wonders what the fuss is about. About 25 percent of Americans say they are Republicans, he notes. About 25 percent of Republicans say they’re for Trump. 25 percent of 25 percent is about the same percentageof Americans as thought the moon landings were faked.

Trump has been bouncing around 25 percent for several months. Despite 100 percent name ID, and with the Lying Swine devoting nearly all their news coverage of the GOP race to him, he’s been unable to grow it. When the GOP herd thins to 3 or 4, the Donald is doomed.

The only polls worth a dime are those conducted in Iowa and New Hampshire. National polls don’t mean much, because the only people who are paying much attention to politics now are those who live where a primary or caucus is impending.

Voters in Iowa and New Hampshire decide late. There’s likely to be more movement in them in the week before the Iowa Caucus than in all of last year.

Cruz has overtaken Trump in the three most recent Iowa polls, by 10 percentage points in the Des Moines Register poll, historically the most accurate. The Monmouth poll was the first to screen for likely voters. It had Cruz at 24 percent, Trump at 19 percent, Rubio at 17 percent.

Cruz and Rubio are rising because Dr. Ben Carson has been hemorrhaging support, nearly all of which has gone to Cruz or Rubio. If Dr. Carson keeps bleeding – which is the way to bet – they’ll keep rising.

The Monmouth and DMR polls may overstate support for Trump. Like Sean Trende in Real Clear Politics, I suspect many of his loudest supporters aren’t actually registered to vote.

As caucus night approaches, I think there will be further slippage in Trump’s support as some caucus goers have sober second thoughts. They’ll be thinking less about sending the Establishment a message, more about their role in selecting the next president. Our mutual friend, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, told Jack Wheeler he was thinking of endorsing Trump. Dr. Jack pleaded with him not to do that, to study carefully the things Trump has said. Dana spent a weekend doing just that. Last week he endorsed Cruz.

Put all these factors together, and I think Cruz wins the Iowa caucuses in a walk, with Rubio 2^nd.

If Trump finishes a somewhat distant third, good things happen. The Donald is about the only candidate who loses by not winning. Several of the others will be able to claim they did better than expected. Not Trump. The bubble will be burst.

No matter how much they’d like to, the news media no longer will be able to focus their coverage on Trump. Attention will have to shift to the winner. The Donald will be out of the spotlight, off center stage.

Trump can regain the spotlight by winning the New Hampshire primary 8 days later, which he very well may. The latest WMUR poll had the Donald at 32 percent, Rubio 2^nd at 14 percent. But only 18 percent in the WMUR poll said they’d made up their minds.

In a poll by Adrian Gray Consulting released a day later, Trump led with 21 percent, followed by Rubio with 17 percent. When the sample was limited to Republicans who are likely to vote, Trump led Rubio by a single percentage point, 19-18.

The Iowa results could shake things up in New Hampshire. Cruz is too far behind to overtake Trump there, but I think Marco Rubio will.

If Trump doesn’t win the New Hampshire primary, he won’t win any other. If the scenario I’ve outlined comes to pass, the GOP herd will effectively have been thinned to 3 or 4.

One of whom won’t be Jeb Bush. The significance of this should not be understated.

Donald Trump is a cancer injected into our body politic. But the cancer was caused by the cluelessness and gutlessness of the GOP Establishment, which Jeb has the misfortune to represent.

Because Jeb still has a ton of money, and no clue, he’ll probably stay in the race too long for the Establishment to boost the odious John Kasich as their Plan B. If the nomination comes down to Cruz or Rubio, there’ll be a sea change in the Republican Party.

The Lying Swine promote Trump because he’d be the easiest “Republican” to beat. They want to attribute every wild thing he says to all Republicans. But that tactic is a hard sell if the Donald flames out early.

The plan –according to those who think Trump is a Democrat mole – is for Trump to create as much mischief as he can, then go third party. That plan may backfire.

The Lying Swine consider themselves the arbiters of what is, and what isn’t, acceptable political discourse. They’ve moved the Overton Window far to the left. The outrageous statements Trump has made and the news media coverage of them has moved it significantly back toward the right.

I don’t think the Donald will go 3^rd party, and I don’t think it would have much effect if he did. Many states have sore loser laws that prohibit a candidate who ran in Republican or Democrat primaries from running subsequently as an independent. It takes a lot of time and costs a lot of money to get on the ballot in the states that would permit him to run. And during that time, he won’t be in the spotlight.

Donald Trump is a loathsome human being. But if he exits the stage in January, his candidacy may have done the GOP more good than harm.

That’s my report for now. I hope to give you an optimistic progress report both for me and our country by early next February. Once again, let me express my gratitude to my fellow TTPers for their prayers. I wish you all a Merry Christmas, and wish America a Happy New Year.

Jack Kelly is a former Marine and Green Beret, and was the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Air Force during the Reagan Administration. He is the national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.