HALF-FULL REPORT 9/11/15: 14 Years Later, They’re Winning

“I wish none of this had happened.”

“So do I,” said Gandalf, “and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

— J.R.R. Tolkien, the Fellowship of the Ring

Fourteen years ago, the world changed. What we didn’t fully realize was the nature of the change that was coming. But come it has. Come it will. From Iran and Europe to Bergdahl and Bernie, Trump trolling to economic engineering, Culture wars, Catholicism, and Whiskey Firenados – I bring you the Half-Full Report. Tragedies, thoughts, hopes, and triumphs await…

Foreign Affairs

Europe’s Camp of the Saints Crisis

“Refugees” continue to pour into Europe, but this only the start. European reactions ensure continuation, and so will the sheer number of likely entrants. Violence is guaranteed to accompany any reversal. Also, any non-reversal. Throughout history, mass migration has not just accompanied war. From the Goths to the Huns to Islam’s Hegira to America itself, mass migration has often been war. See “Europe’s Camp of the Saints Crisis: A 3-Way Strategic Fulcrum” for why this is bigger news than anything in the U.S. cycle.

That article has been given a major update to collect the Ground Truth of what’s going on in one place, and I’ve also added an especially close look at the Islamic strategic fulcrum.

Consider it the antidote to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s TTP article “The Syria Crisis is Not a Temporary Phenomenon.” Which might be forgivable, if its composition was preceded by chugging a bottle of absinthe.

Iran

• David Rivkin and Rep. Mike Pompeo [R-KS] explain how the IAEA “side deals” mean that under the everything-included terms of the Corker-Cardin law, Obama has never submitted any “agreement” for Congress to review. The time period is over, so Obama can’t legally suspend, waive, reduce, or otherwise limit existing statutory sanctions against Iran. It’s really cute that they think this matters. Unless, of course, they’re planning billion-dollar fines or other direct action against American companies who act on Obama’s illegality. Ted Cruz kind of gets it, but these are Republicans we’re talking about…

• Sometimes a non-political snapshot can tell you a whole lot, which is why Reagan always wanted the CIA to tell him what jokes were current in Soviet society. The way the Islamic Republic treats dogs is one of those sums-it-all-up snapshots, and it’s a good one to share with non-conservative dog lovers.

‘Murica

• Deserter Bowe Bergdahl will be charged. “Misbeahvior in the face of the enemy” doesn’t force military prosecutors to directly connect individual deaths to his acts, or prove collaboration with the enemy or deliberate desertion. It’s enough that he left his command with 1 less soldier, and increased risks to the others. Which is inarguable.

• Hillary would be charged, were she not a member of the aristocracy and hence above the law. A 2nd review has confirmed that her emails contained classified material. Her response was to finally sort of apologize. As if an apology matters.

• Bernie Sanders now leads Hillary in Iowa. They’d rather vote for the aged nebbish flim-flam man than the aged sociopath witch and her minions. So basically, the Wizard of Oz is outpolling the Wicked Witch of the East.

• The Penatgon is pushing for a 25-30% reduction in civilian HQ staff. The relevant unions are upset. I want a very small drone that plays violin music, and can be used indoors.

• IRS employee arrested after molesting a woman being audited. TSA wannabe.

• The House of Representatives won a surprise initial victory in their court case against Obamacare, which allows them to pursue part of their lawsuit. Prof. Elizabeth Foley offers her analysis.

The GOP

• Scott “Dilbert” Adams puts his finger on things, as he talks about Trump and persuasion. Yes, the GOP has made its own bed. But that’s only half the equation: “In order for [the outsider] that explanation to make sense, one must assume that Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina would have taken out Bush as effectively as Trump. Are you feeling that?” Point conceded.
  

• Trump comes off badly in a side-by-side comparison to Cruz, who invited him to the big Iran deal protest. His supporters will not care. Nice speech by Cruz, who has been hurt most by Trump’s rise but never attacks Trump. Alas, Cruz may be disappointed by his windfall if Trump falters. This article has both speech videos, and breaks down the numbers re: their respective supporters.

• Meanwhile, it’s good to be the king! Trump has broken 30% in some GOP race polls, and other polls show him with up to 25% of the black vote – a figure that would kneecap the Democrats. He’s trolling CNN, who raised ad rates on the GOP debate by 40x, by pressuring them to donate the extra revenue to military veteran charities. That may distract Trumpeters from his recent comment that maybe we should take more Syrian refugees. The Donald had better hope so, because it’s the 1st time I’ve seen something rattle them.

• Trump is especially trolling Jeb Bush, with this viral “Low-Energy” instagram ad. Jeb’s weak response: “That’s not how you win.” Scott “Dilbert” Adams: Yes, it is. New term for you: “linguistic killshot.”
  

• Linguistic Killshot #Fail: Governor Jindal’s ‘I’m enjoying Trump, but let’s say the truths that aren’t being said’ speech (video | transcript) was generally true. I don’t expect it to change much. I like Jindal a lot, but this showed me why he is where he is, despite his impressive command of the issues and his record. Bill Clinton could have said substantially the same thing, and everyone would have laughed – including Trump. Jindal’s body language and voice come off as tight and angry. His word choices lean toward sharpness, but often don’t cut. Emotionally pinched + can’t define the debate at a master level is not a winning formula. I’ve always thought that if the GOP ever did nominate The Donald, Jindal would be the perfect VP match to ballast the ship. Non-starter now.

• Meanwhile, Trump supporters and more than a few opportunists of all kinds are independently trolling National Review magazine with an #NRORevolt hashtag, and stuff like this funny comic strip. In the modern campaigning world, unsolicited marketing is an important measure. And NRO comments like this are a warning sign that extends beyond Trump:
  

• If you want my take on how this gap might be bridged, the downside of The Donald, what the mafia has to do with all this, and the only certainty I see in the 2016 election cycle, check this fast Storified Tweetstorm: Trump, the Pundits, and the GOP Base: A Hate Story.

Economy

• The August 2015 employment numbers carry a payload – it’s the number of jobs native-born Americans lost, vs. the number foreign-born workers gained. Note also the “seasonal adjustment” flim-flam to create a positive total.

• Liberty Blitzkrieg notes that the “liar’s loans” are back. Yup, the ones that fueled the subprime mortgage crisis. As long as you claim the home is for “business purposes,” mortgages can be offered with “limited reviews” into your actual finances. You can guess how that’s working in practice.

• Former Reagan OMB Director David Stockman has become quite the economic contrarian. His thoughts on how some of the hedge funds got hoist by their own petard in the recent downturn are interesting (warning: Wall Street jargon). He also mentions this: “Metaphorically speaking, dollars are hightailing back to the Eccles building. China and the petro-states are selling and off-shore dollar lenders are effectively making a margin call.” That’s important information about the $US, bonds, etc. if that’s how it continues to play out. Comments from TTPers with expertise in this area would be welcome.
  

• Peter Schiff called the 2008 house of cards but has been experiencing a more uneven time since. His view converges with Stockman’s, and he explains the coming “Quantitative Tightening” less technically. While forecasting QE4, which I’d also bet on. Is he right about QE4’s consequences? We’ll see.

• Interesting idea from Counterpunch, whose article argues that a growing real economy is now poison to Wall Street. Short form: that would cause interest rates to rise, which would be ruinous to many current Wall Street positions and strategies. It would certainly wreck the federal budget. Like Stockman and Schiff, they are worried about a tipping point to major downturn + currency crisis.
  • An aside: left-wing magazines are “The Nation,” “Counterpunch.” Right-wing? “National Review,” “The Weekly Standard,” “The Federalist.” Kind of tells you all you need to know, no?

• “What I learned from [Berkshire Hathaway’s] Charlie Munger About Risk.” Good way to think about investing.

• Schwab has a self-interested article re: Does Market Timing Work? I say self-interested because retail investors are still holding back from what they see as a rigged game, and Counterpunch is correct in noting that they’ve headed for the exists recently. On the other hand, this article contains actual research. The wild card? It only covers 1993-2012. Past experience doesn’t predict future performance if a major, 1929-style cycle gets going. If we don’t have a crash, Schwab shows what staying out may give up.

I keep 2 principles in my mind about this stuff. 1) Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent; 2) If something can’t continue indefinitely, it won’t. Don’t put all your bets on any one outcome.

Culture

We Don’t Need No-Education

• The #1 story this week on The Daily Beast? “Why College Educated Women Can’t Find Love.” People who attended my 2015 Vegas Rendezvous presentation won’t be surprised at all. Really, the only ways out that will work are: [1] Remove college as a status symbol or job hunting license, so women with degrees won’t feel like they’re reaching below themselves (anti-hypergamy); [2] Along similar lines, change the whole system to recognize MOOCs and other alternatives, while emphasizing certificates over degrees; [3] Get more men in college by cutting costs sharply, dismantling the anti-male college bureaucracies and enforcement of feminism, and making college less of a hostile environment;  [4] Change the norms so college-educated women expect to date 30+ year old men during or right after their B.A. Any one of these moves would be hugely damaging to the Left. Meanwhile, the pressure will continue to build, as women sense that current arrangements are sabotaging their mating strategies. They are, and it’s deliberate.

• Exhibit #84,563: “The Education Department’s Office for Civil Rights, where I used to work, is gradually turning Title IX into a license to lie about sexual harassment and assault.” I just don’t understand why there are so few men in college…

• So few conservatives, too. Honest leftist Lee Jussim actually spends a lot of his time studying why. His personal experience shows that when you remove discrimination, and study problems outside the Leftist holy books, conservatives can thrive in his field (psychology). Note that political affiliation is a non-protected class. But religion could easily become so, and could be the subject of lucrative lawfare that used examples like this as evidence.

• Or just use the Asian community. They’re being flat-out told that they will be penalized by colleges’ entrance boards, via admissions consultants who will get business by telling them the truth. People wondered what my 2015 Vegas Presentation’s “Dark Engine” looked like when used for good? Like this.

• “Black Swan” risk guru Nassim Taleb writes about the potential for “Uberizing” education. Faster, please.

• Good old-fashioned classical K-12 education has been growing inside the United States for several decades – and Common Core is boosting the trend. Read about Ridgeview in Ft. Collins, CO – it’s fantastic, basically the high school equivalent of Hillsdale College. Which is not a coincidence; they’re part of Hillsdale’s Barney Charter School Initiative. Hillsdale is a really, really worthy place to put your money – a monastery of learning & light amidst the darkness, whose walking is their preaching and vice-versa.
  

I’ll close with this great “Living Without Lies” speech about real education, Vaclav Havel, and how beauty might yet save the world:

Black Lives Natter

• This memo from The Democratic Strategist about Black Lives Matter is alarmed that a notable wing of the movement is racist and segregationist, and will attack and upstage Democrats on the campaign trail. To which I say: “Hahahahahaaa!” Amusing read, as it discusses how to otherize and marginalize the Black Nationalist wing.

• Black Lives Matter activist Zuky sums it up: “Many of my POC friends would actually prefer to hang out with an Archie Bunker-type who spits flagrantly offensive opinions, rather than a colorblind liberal whose insidious paternalism, dehumanizing tokenism, and cognitive indoctrination ooze out between superficially progressive words.” Doesn’t that just nail them? Oh, and Zuky: if you want to do a #BlackBrunch where we go to cafes and scream at liberals together? I’m in with my sleeveless white T-shirt on.

Odds N’ Sods

• Comedian does routine about fat people, Google (YouTube) takes down her account and bans the video. Please, Leftists, please keep pissing off the comedians. The one set of people who could put a cultural stake right through your black hearts.

• The Washington Post talks about a conservative revolt brewing in the Vatican. What’s encouraging is that Catholics who remain true to doctrine are speaking out openly. Religious institutions are the first and most important bases for humanists to secure against Leftist theocracy. But “revolt?” The article itself says that more open discussion seems to be part of Francis’ goal. In which case, debate cannot be a revolt. Note the dishonest rhetorical trick here, which tries to usurp the Pope’s authority. Leftists lie.

• ESPN, which apparently shows some sports as part of its political broadcasts, is in so much revenue trouble that it’s affecting Disney’s balance sheet. As the article points out, the alarming thing is that the customers seem to be disappearing and tuning out the activity entirely. At some point, that has to concern the professional leagues as well. I’ve seen anecdotes suggesting that the Obama economy is part of the problem, which is still a delicious flavor of justice. But the endless Leftist preaching is definitely part of it, too. Vox Day refers to “the impossibility of social justice convergence,” whereby organizations that enforce Leftist religion as their priority fail at their primary purpose. Or create a massive correction opportunity during their crisis.

• Stephen Colbert debuted on Sept. 9th in Letterman’s CBS Late Show spot, with bit about Donald Trump and the KKK. On Sept. 10th, his ratings in the key 18-49 demographic dropped by half. If he drops further, he’ll drop below Letterman in that demographic – and Letterman was already losing.

• Theater chain tries to clamp down on guns, announces invasive search policy. 2A organization notes the chain’s financial weakness, and moves for direct pushback. You’ll notice that the 2nd Amendment is an area of the culture war we’re winning. This is why.

• A fine celebration of Prof. Christopher Tolkien’s role in his father’s great legacy, and in my favorite fiction book: The Silmarillion. It’s the entire prequel to Lord of the Rings, yet it’s much shorter. And I rather enjoyed the part where Sauron gets his personal ass thrashed by a girl and her dog – Elrond’s grandma was a force and a half. If you haven’t read it, Hillsdale Prof. Bradley Birzer says:

Tolkien’s mythological version of Creation is one of the most beautiful things I have ever read, and I think it does mighty justice to the Hebraic account…. It is the story of pride against love, of love against pride. It is the story of preferring self to other, or other to self. It is the story of choosing art [over] dominion, or dominion [over] art…. Tolkien’s Silmarillion does for modernity what Dante did for the Middle Ages and what Virgil did for the Roman age of transition from republic to empire.

Treat yourself. One fan has cleverly composed an excellent teaser, using a montage of clips:

Jim Beam and The Wrath of God

2003. Storms destroy a warehouse full of Jim Beam, releasing about 800,000 gallons. Then lightning hits the spill as it covers a nearby lake, and the lake catches fire. Then the tornado arrives, sucking up the flaming whiskey and setting nearby forests on fire. The Weather Channel created a huge Internet hit with the video this week, which got international coverage.

A Pentecostal probably looks at this and says “The Wrath of God!” I look at it and imagine G-d saying “The jumped-up monkeys down there sure are depressing. I need a sip of Jim Beam!”

In liberty and truth,

Joe Katzman