HALF-FULL REPORT 11/07/14

While Democrats were being sent to Siberia, Jack Wheeler is traveling in the Middle East, so I’m filling in on the HFR this week. Other stuff was going on in the world, but I’m focusing on you can guess what.

In 2010 and 2012, Republicans lost senate seats they should have won because they nominated some bad candidates who said/did stupid things.

All the bad candidates this year were Democrats. Many – especially Bruce Braley in Iowa, Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky, Mark Udall in Colorado, Wendy Davis in Texas – were really bad.

Thanks to the across the board failures of the Obama administration, Democrats couldn’t talk about the economy or health care or foreign policy or anything else of substance. People weren’t much interested in what they did talk about.

Democrat memes lost much of their potency. The "Republican War on Women" is finally over, thanks to Mark "Uterus." The Dems who made ugly racist appeals, Kay Hagan in North Carolina and Michelle Nunn in Georgia, both lost.

Democrats sounded like a party out of ideas, that has lost touch with the people, clings to power for no other reason than to use it to line their pockets.

The Chinese believe that if an emperor fails to fulfill his obligations to the people he rules, he loses the "Mandate of Heaven," and his dynasty falls.

Did Democrats lose the Mandate of Heaven Tuesday?

I’ll explain below why "the historic Republican midterm landslide" isn’t as big a deal as many are making it out to be; why Republicans still face an uphill climb in the presidential race; why the next two years will be grim and dangerous, why the excrement will collide with the fan very, very soon.

But what happened Tuesday was a big deal. We should savor it while we can.

* * * *

SCHADENFREUDE BREAK #1: Public employee unions spent big to punish Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker for having the nerve to trim their perks, and other governors and legislators who followed his example.

They got bupkes. Walker won as big as a Republican can in Wisconsin. The GOP fattened comfortable majorities in both houses of the legislature. The only way the unions will get Walker out of Madison now is by electing him president. John Kasich won big in Ohio. Rick Snyder prevailed in Michigan. Sam Brownback roared back from the dead in Kansas. And Bruce Rauner – who campaigned on implementing Walker type reforms – ousted union tool Pat Quinn in Illinois.

For the unions, this is much worse than merely a gargantuan waste of money. After seeing them spend so much for so little, other governors are likely to regard the unions as paper tigers, won’t be intimidated by their threats. Expect Walker-ish reforms to spread.

And after having seen so much of their dues urinated away, the rank and file may grow restive if union honchos try to make a similar effort in 2016.

* * * *

CAVEAT #1: Because Democrats can bank California (55 electoral votes) and New York (29) before the campaign begins, a Republican must carry virtually every swing state to be elected president.

Despite the most favorable circumstances in half a century, Republicans failed to win a single senate seat in a blue state. Our record in purple states was mixed. We gained our "historic midterm landslide" mostly by defeating Red State Dems who shouldn’t have been elected in the first place.

Here’s an idea – which I’ve long advocated for reasons unrelated to partisanship – which could even the odds. Democrats would howl if we did it. Let ‘em squeal.

* * * *

What’s most important about the size of the GOP margin in the senate is the insurance it provides for keeping control in 2016, when 24 Republicans and only 10 Democrats will be up. Of the 10 Dems, only two – Dingy Harry Reid and Michael Bennet in Colorado – are potentially vulnerable.

At least three Republicans – Mark Kirk in Illinois, Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania – figure to be in peril.

So it would be great if we could fatten the cushion with a party switcher. Joe Manchin of West Virginia says he won’t, but – as I noted in my column this week – enlightened self interest suggests he will.

If Manchin switched, he’d be the most liberal Republican in the Senate. But if Manchin switches, there’s likely to be a dramatic change in his voting record. After Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado switched from Democrat to Republican in 1995, he went from voting conservative 25 percent of the time to voting conservative 59 percent of the time, according to the American Conservative Union.

* * * *

Why did Republicans win? The short answer is: "Barack Obama." But you knew that. Here are a few other reasons:

*For the first time in my lifetime, GOP candidates made a concerted, effective effort to win votes from minorities. 

Jack Wheeler posted this superb appeal to Hispanics on behalf of Cory Gardner on the HFR. It’s worth watching again.

Jack also posted the magnificent ads Elbert Guillory made against Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and Kay Hagan in North Carolina.  Larry Hogan’s upset victory in the gubernatorial race in dark blue Maryland – over a Democrat who is black – was fueled in part by black votes. Here’s one of the ads that helped him obtain them. Bruce Rauner actively sought minority votes, got just enough of them to put him over the top.

*When Cory Gardner said birth control should be sold over the counter, he pre-empted the "War on Women" meme, reduced Mark "Uterus" to babbling incoherence. Thom Tillis did the same in North Carolina, which may have provided the edge that put him over the top.

*Republicans were a helluva lot better at GOTV than they were in 2008 and 2012. The story of how Republicans turned to their advantage the Dems’ mail ballot initiative in Colorado is a thing of beauty. If you weren’t a fan of national GOP Chairman Reince Priebus before, you should be now.

*The most important reason (after Barack Obama) was running good candidates. Michael Barone explains:

"Republican candidates were generally younger, more vigorous, more sunny and optimistic than Democrats. The contrast was sharpest in Colorado and Iowa, which voted twice for President Obama. Cory Gardner and Joni Ernst seemed to be looking forward to the future. Their opponents grimly championed the stale causes of feminists and trial lawyers of the past."

More GOP candidates shattered stereotypes. Among the victors Tuesday were the first black Republican woman to be elected to Congress; the youngest woman ever, the first openly gay Republican, I noted in my column.

Will Hurd will be the first Republican of African-American descent to represent Texas in the U.S. House.

 Alex Mooney, who is of Cuban descent, won a seat in the House in West Virginia, where only 1.2 percent of the population is Hispanic. Campaigning mostly from her dorm at West Virginia University, 18 year old Saira Blair won a seat in the state legislature, where 80 years of Democrat control have ended.

* * * *

SCHADENFREUDE BREAK #2: One of the great joys of a good election night is watching the suffering of the talking heads on MSNBC and CNN as the returns come in. In case you missed it, here’s a roundup of what happened on MSNBC. For lagniappe, here’s The Nation from Oct. 1 on "Seven GOP Governors Who May Lose Re-election."

* * * *

Far and away the biggest spender in the midterms was billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, who spent $74 million out of his own pocket, for results only marginally better than the public employee unions got. Steyer’s money may have made a positive difference only in New Hampshire. Elsewhere, his spending appears to have backfired.

Even for a billionaire, $74 million is real money. That, coupled with the ribbing Steyer’s getting for his bad political investments, make it less likely he and others of his ilk will spend so lavishly in 2016.

* * * *

CAVEAT #2: Many races were closer than they should have been because Democrats lavishly funded pseudo "Libertarian" candidates in key races. This tactic didn’t work in Georgia or North Carolina, but is why Mark Begich can play Sore Loserman in Alaska, and it cost Ed Gillespie the senate seat in Virginia.

If we don’t do something about this, we could have big trouble in the purple states in 2016. My preferred solution – to draw and quarter the pseudo Libertarians, then boil them in oil – is, alas, impractical. This may be a job for Rand Paul…and is a reason why other Republicans had damned well better be nice to him.

The solution, Jim Geraghty thinks, is for more states to have runoffs, like Louisiana and Georgia do. I’ve been for this for a while, because it insures the winner will have a majority of the votes cast. Democracy is supposed to be about majority rule.

* * * *

Now that the midterms are over, presidential buzz begins in earnest. The first GOP presidential debate will be Sept. 16. Ugh!

I fear Republicans will run down rivals to their favorite when they should be directing their fire at our enemy in the White House, poison the well for whoever wins the nomination. This is pretty much how we behaved in 2012.

I have a mild preference for Scott Walker, because I think he’s the best governor in the country; is best able to unite Tea Party and Establishment; is more thoroughly vetted than any other; is the candidate most likely to flip Wisconsin (a lot of union goons actually will vote for him for president just to get him out of Madison), and, Hell, because I’m a Badger.

But I’d be very happy with a ticket comprised of just about any combination of Bobby Jindal, Ben Carson, Rick Perry and Susanna Martinez. The possibility of an all non-white ticket intrigues me, if only because it would be so much fun to watch heads explode at MSNBC and CNN.

I could be nearly as happy with a ticket headed by Ohio Gov. John Kasich (considering how critical the Buckeye state is to our hopes for victory, a guy who got 64 percent of the vote there deserves serious consideration), Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, or Sen. Ted Cruz.

I wouldn’t be as thrilled with a ticket headed by Mitt Romney, Chris Christie or Jeb Bush, but I won’t badmouth them. I can’t support Sen. Rand Paul because of his foreign policy views, but I wouldn’t badmouth him either. I despise his dad, but I like Rand a lot. He’s right about most domestic issues, is our best ambassador to the Millennials – and we need his help to crush the pseudo-Libertarians. Support who you think is best. But do it by saying what’s right about your candidate, not what’s wrong with his rivals.

* * * *

SCHADENFREUDE BREAK #3: Sandra Fluke, the rich bitch who became a feminist heroine by demanding a Catholic college pay for her birth control, got creamed in her race for a state senate seat in California. Her 15 minutes of fame are just about up – unless she snags a guest invite on the MSNBC show Wendy Davis evidently was auditioning for in the final weeks of her campaign for governor of Texas.

* * * *

CAVEAT #3: This is the super biggie. According to this study, about 14 percent of non-citizens in the U.S. in 2008 were registered to vote, about 6 percent voted that year. That’s hundreds of thousands of illegal votes.

The CCES study has no data for 2012, but if the numbers were comparable to 2008, illegal votes may have swung Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada to the Democrats. If Republicans don’t do something significant to protect the integrity of the ballot in 2016, nothing else may matter.

Fortunately, an overwhelming majority of Americans support ballot security measures. The key to passage of a bill to require local officials to purge voter rolls of those ineligible is the right kind of immigration reform, I’ll explain in a column next week.

* * * *

Our prospects for 2016 hinge on what the GOP majority in Congress does. Perhaps more important than the ability to pass legislation is the ability Republicans have gained to define themselves, rather than to be defined by the Democrats with bylines in the national news media.

The greatest threat to our prospects is posed by factional infighting. Republicans must stop sniping at each other.

There are sinners in both factions. But the worst – like this putz, who declares that just by talking about working with Democrats, Mitch McConnell has "surrendered" – are in the Retromingent Right.

If the putz had a brain in his head instead of a burr up his ass, he’d realize the Era of Good Feelings will end as soon as Zero issues an executive order granting amnesty to illegal aliens, or tries to ram through the lame duck session a controversial bill or appointment.

For the time being, Obama pretends to be willing to compromise. McConnell pretends to believe him. But Mitch knows all out war is coming, soon.

The lame duck session will be an early, critical gut check for Republicans. They must try to block anything other than housekeeping measures needed to keep the government going until the new Congress convenes, because anything else Democrats try to do will be illegitimate. This Congress has been rejected by the American people. Republicans must defend the verdict they issued at the polls Tuesday as vigorously as they can. If they don’t, it won’t be just the Retromingent Right that loses faith in them.

* * * *

Enough pessimism. Here’s why I think Democrats have lost the Mandate of Heaven:

*As long as Barack Obama is in the White House, America is screwed. But Democrats are screwed more. The next two years will be grim. The Democrats with bylines will try to blame the misfortunes to come on the Republican Congress, but as long as Zero is in the White House, that dog won’t hunt.

More fascinating than how Republicans relate to the president will be how his relationships with Democrats "evolve."  If Democrats stick by Zero as he drags the country further down, they’ll lose Middle America for good. If they turn on him, the hard left will turn on them with a vengeance.

*Democrats are out of ideas, ideologically and morally bankrupt. Their hopes for 2016 rest on a 69-year-old filthy rich (but still greedy) white woman who shares responsibility for Zero’s disastrous foreign policy. They have no bench. For the long term, what may have been most significant Tuesday was the massacre Democrats suffered in state legislative races. Republicans are now the party of youth, vitality, fresh ideas.

*Democrats did better than they deserved Tuesday because they had so much more money. Selling access to the federal treasury to crony capitalists and public employee unions has been a great way to raise campaign funds. But when you can no longer provide that access, contributions fall off.

"There is a Providence that protects idiots, drunkards, children and the United States of America," said Bismarck.

God may have yet again Tuesday. But let’s give Him a hand in 2016.

It’s time to wrap this up. The Hero of the Week is you, if you voted. The Putz of the Week is you, if you didn’t.

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