HALF-FULL REPORT 10/31/14

Boo!

Yes, President Zero has become a fright mask scaring America.  It’s all trick and no treat for Democrats.  Welcome to the Happy Halloween HFR!

Goblins from Electoral Hell are haunting the Dems this week.  Could it really be that next week Hell actually freezes over?

There are a whole host of reasons why it could. 

*Amazingly, there have been no October Surprises haunting Pubs.  There have been an avalanche of them on the Dems – the latest being Louisiana’s Scary Mary Landrieu yesterday (10/30) saying she and Zero are unpopular because the entire South is racist and sexist.

She just didn’t throw her own state and herself under the bus, but every Dem in the South who will now be asked if they agree.  Wow.  Normally, a bitter candidate denounces voters after losing – but before?  May not be long until the white coats take her away to the Funny Farm.

*A headline to relish from Wednesday (10/29): Shocking Harvard poll: Millennial voters want GOP in charge, abandon Obama.

Well, not shocking to TTP old-timers.  Way back in February 2004 – yes, 10½ years ago – TTP predicted this would happen in The Curse of the Xers.

The leading edge of the Millennial Generation is growing up.  Wait another 8-10 years when they’re all in their 20s and 30s.  They will be dumbfounded why their parents and grandparents were idiotic enough to elect Zero.

*Zero is not just losing the youth vote, its Latinos too.  From the WaPo on Tuesday (10/28): Hispanics on a GOP Senate: Sure, Why Not?

*Yes, it’s blacks as well.  This video of Black Americans having the courage to speak real truth to power, released on Monday (10/27) is going viral.  It is heartrending, inspiring, and frankly, thrilling.

*Every major poll in the country is in effect predicting an O-NO Election – with voters everywhere blaming Zero for America’s ills, as itemized by the London Daily Mail:  Democrats’ Fortunes Look Dim.

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Perhaps the most jaw-dropping evidence is in New England.  Look what’s going on in what was the nation’s most rabidly liberal region.

*In Massachusetts – bluest of the blue – Pub Charley Baker is not only ahead of Dem Martha Coakley for governor by 9 points, the liberal Boston Globe has endorsed him. 

*In Maine, the Dems thought they could take the scalp of Pub Gov Paul LePage – who’s delightfully conservative – but he’s now comfortably ahead.

*In deep blue Connecticut, Pub challenger Tom Foley is in a dead tie with Dem Gov Daniel Malloy.  Since Malloy has never polled over 43%, odds are better than even that Foley will win.

*In even deeper darker blue Rhode Island – where all Senators and Congresscritters plus 80% of state legislators are Dems – Pub Allen Fung and Dem Gina Raimondo are neck-and-neck.  That’s with a guy named Bob Healey running as a Weirdo-Beardo taking a chunk of the poll too.  Fung may fall short, but that he’s this close a few days out is eyebrow-raising.

*And in the biggie, New Hampshire, Scott Brown hammered Jeanne Shaheen in their debate last night (10/30).  They were neck-and-neck, so this last debate may pull it out for Scottie.  Especially since Brown won the state’s famous (and 80% accurate over decades) Cigar Store Match Book Poll handily.

By contrast, Fauxcahontas Warren gave Shaheen a ringing endorsement Tuesday (10/28) on The View:  "She’s independent, out there working for the people of Vermont."  Oops.

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Something is happening in the Blue States, and it’s not confined to New England. Take Maryland.

The state is in a Dem chokehold, yet Pub Larry Hogan has a 5 point lead over Dem Anthony Brown for governor in an internal poll released yesterday (10/30).

Or New Mexico.  Incumbent Dem Sen. Tom Udall was supposed to win in a walk.  Suddenly, Pub Allen Weh is only 4 points behind him this week (10/28), and gaining.

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In all of these and many other close races, the key issue is the Democrats’ margin of theft.  That margin is like a handicap for GOP golfers of one or two strokes.  If a Republican doesn’t win by more than 1 or 2%, then vote fraud will carry the day for the Dem. 

In the Senate races, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia are in the bag, beyond the margin of theft – although Georgia and Louisiana will have to be won in runoffs. 

There’s very little margin the Dems have in Red State Kansas, and the endorsement yesterday (10/30) of Roberts by revered Kansas State football coach Bill Snyder – such things matter in Kansas – should get the Pub incumbent over the goal line.

The problems states are Colorado (Gardner), Iowa (Ernst), New Hampshire (Brown), and North Carolina (Tillis) – all so close they’re within the Dem margin of theft.  All four Pubs could lose illegitimately because of it.  Yes, Gardner is clearly ahead but Colorado’s Dem margin of theft is very large.

So if you’re adding this all up, it means we could see only a 5 seat Pub gain the morning of Nov 5 – 1 short of control, meaning it’s do-or-die for either party in the LA/GA runoffs.  There will also be vicious legal challenges.

This is a worse-case scenario, though, as I think it’s very unlikely the Dems can steal all four of the problem states.  Odds are still quite high you’ll be popping a champagne cork before midnight next Tuesday.

Oh, about North Carolina.  Black Louisianan Elbert Guillory took Scary Mary Landrieu apart in an ad this summer.  Now he’s doing the same to Kay Hagan.  This is Epic.  Watch:

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Jack Kelly thinks "the difference between a pretty good (but somewhat disappointing) night for the GOP and possibly an epic one is whether the ‘missing white voters’ from 2012 go to the polls to cast a protest vote against Zero’s policies, or stay home." 

Epic for him means not only do we take all four of the problem states and clear the bar in Kansas – but that "some Dem incumbents with low toplines, such as Mark Warner in Virginia, Al Franken in Minnesota, and Tom Udall in New Mexico could be in for a nasty surprise."

The Wall Street Journal answered Kelly’s question this morning: Democrats Lose Their Grip On White Working-Class Voters, Give Republicans an Edge in Contested Elections.

When Tingles himself, Chris Mathews, predicts as he did yesterday (10/30), that the GOP will gain 10 Senate seats, you know it’s looking good.

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That’s for the Senate, and we’ve discussed Pub governor races in blue states that are interesting but likely will end up "close but no cigar" (except for Charley Baker in Mass – that’s cool).  The most consequential governor’s race, however, is in Wisconsin.  No one is targeted and hated by the Dems and the moocher public unions than Scott Walker.

Walker is their Enemy #1 – and to their venomous disappointment, he is now pulling way ahead.  What nails it is that shortly after the poll came out on Wednesday (10/29), news broke confirming that his challenger Dem Mary Burke was in fact fired for incompetence in her family’s business.  Check out this Pub ad that wipes out Mary Burke in 47 seconds.

She’s toast, Walker wins walking away.   

And with that, expect his placement at the top of the presidential contender heap for 2016.  And expect something else.  It’s way too soon for predictions, but do not in the least be surprised if the GOP ticket for 2016 is Walker-Martinez. 

Susana Martinez is the quite successful governor of New Mexico who will easily win reelection next Tuesday.  Two great conservative governors, a white guy paired with a Latina lady.  Walker-Martinez 2016.  You heard it here first.

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Let’s not forget the House.  "Drive for 245" is Boehner’s mantra, because "Heaven is 247" sounded goofy – but that’s really his goal.  The Pub majority is now at 234R-199D (1 vacancy).  The most seats the Pubs have had Post-WWII was the 80^th Congress in 1946: 246R-188D.  That was under Truman. 

Boehner may make his 13 seat gain and more. 31 year-old Marilinda Garcia is a fiscal/social conservative poised to win in New Hampshire’s 2^nd District.  30 year-old Elise Stefanik is ahead of her Dem opponent by 18 points.  There are lots of races like this.  Come Nov 5, the Pubs will have more House seats and a stronger majority than they’ve had for 67 years.

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And let’s not forget the State Houses.  The WaPo headline on Wednesday (10/29): Election could tip historic number of legislatures into Republican hands.

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Is this starting to look good or what?  Want to feel even better?  Here’s a little schadenfreude to enjoy:  GOP Senate win to ax hundreds of Democratic jobs.

Okay – time to get the kidlets into their costumes and take them out for Trick or Treat.  But before you do, or at least sometime over the weekend, take the time for this.

Fifty years ago this week — October 27, 1964 — a moderately well-known actor delivered a campaign speech for GOP presidential candidate Barry Goldwater.  He wrote it himself, entitling it, A Time for Choosing.  It was the speech that launched the political career of Ronald Reagan.

It does no good to pine for him as he was sui generis.  Yet we may still be inspired by his moral genius, for our nation faces another time of choosing four days from now – and we must continue to so choose in the next two years of suffering under a president who is the moral antithesis of Ronald Reagan.  Take his words to heart.

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