HALF-FULL REPORT 10/24/14

Ten days to go until Election Eve.  Is it time to play this?

Yes, there’s still time for things to go sideways, and many races are close enough for the Dems to cheat their way to victory – especially in Colorado.  But every time I start to worry about Dem voter fraud this year, I think of Joe Biden.

Remember his incredibly obnoxious performance debating Paul Ryan in 2012?  It was the single VP candidate debate on national television, with Ryan trying to have a serious discussion about serious issues, and all Biden did was smirk and eye-roll ridicule everything Ryan said. 

A voice of alarm went off in my brain – which I unfortunately ignored as I couldn’t believe it at the time – that Biden was signaling the fix was in.  He couldn’t take the debate or the entire campaign or voter sentiment seriously because he knew Dem Party operatives had made sure the election would follow Stalin’s dictum:  “It doesn’t matter who votes – what matters is who counts the votes.”

You won’t find SloJo being a smart-ass now – or any other Dem and Enemedia pundit.  They are all in a state of gloom and panic living in Sour Grapes City. 

TV Networks Black Out Bad Election News for Dems is Newsbusters’ headline ereyesterday (10/22).  When the Pubs were going down the tubes in the 2006 midterms, ABC-CBS-NBC ran 159 campaign stories – they’ve run only 25 now, with ABC not running a single one since Sept 1^st.

That alone tells you the Pub margin of victory in many races is too big for Dem cheating to overcome.  That’s backed up by the entire Enemedia punditry proclaiming this is a “Seinfeld election” – vapid, inconsequential, “an election about nothing.”  Sour Grapes City.  On the contrary, as the Weekly Standard’s Steve Hayes says, it’s An Election About Everything.

So maybe we really can sing along with the 1967 Beatles, It’s Getting Better All The Time.  Let’s look at some specifics.

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The most amazing poll of the week is today’s (10/24) Boston Globe – note, a liberal rag – that shows Pub Charlie Baker ahead of Dem Martha Coakley by 9 points for Massachusetts Governor.  No wonder she’s being ridiculed as Martha Choke-ley.  When a Pub wins governor going away in the bluest state of all, you know why Dems are singin’ the blues.

In purple Iowa, Pub Governor Terry Branstad has an 18-point lead over his Dem challenger.  No wonder the Pubs think they can sweep all four of Iowa’s House seats.  That, plus a spectacular absentee/early vote for Pubs has to be very good news for Joni Ernst.  She’s been ahead, albeit slightly, in every poll for the last month.

The historic reversal of Pubs beating Dems in the AB/EV (absentee ballot/early vote) turnout in Iowa is no fluke.  It’s happening in Colorado and Florida as well.  Colorado is especially interesting.  Cory Gardner’s increasing lead over Mark “Uterus” Udall is getting big enough that the voter fraud Dems hard-wired into the state’s electoral system won’t matter.

This means that the Dems’ “Colorado Model” is failing, as explained by the Wall Street Journal’s Kim Strassel yesterday (10/23).  Rather than being a model for national Dem dominance, not only are the Dems poised to lose a Senate seat in Colorado, but the governorship and the state senate too.  An Epic Fail.

Jack Kelly tells me he considers Cory Gardner the “most Reaganesque of the Republicans running this year,” putting a warm, sunny, optimistic face on conservative principles, while kicking his opponent straight in the nads.  This latest ad of his shows why.  It simply devastates Udall, while being pro-Hispanic in a pro-American way. 

This is flat-out fabulous.  When all is said and done, it is the quality of Pub candidates like Cory Gardner that is making the difference this year.  The NRO says Gardner is “pitching a perfect game.”  So much so that, even though he is against Amnesty, Gardner is leading Udall among Hispanic voters.  That ad shows why.  It’s worth watching more than once.

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So far, the Pubs are a shoo-in for taking Alaska, Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, with increasing odds for Colorado and Iowa.  That’s 7, one more than needed to can Harry Reid.  That’s providing, of course, they not lose their own seats.  What about them?

The biggie is Kansas, which Dem stealth candidate Greg Orman looked ready to steal from Pub Sen. Pat Roberts.  But now the libs at the Kansas City Star are all bummed that a “Shocking GOP Sweep Shaping Up.” 

Same thing in Kentucky,  McConnell is now In Like Flynn. 

The one pick up the Dems are pining for now is Georgia – an open seat with Pub Sen. Saxby Chambliss retiring.  It’s between Pub Dave Perdue, a successful businessman, and Dem Michelle Nunn, daughter of former Dem Sen. Sam Nunn who’s done nothing with her life except being a social/charity worker. 

The race should be a no-brainer just based on the photos of them juxtaposed on the Wikipedia page on the race.  All Michelle has got is her father’s name.  Yet the race is a toss-up.  There are two polls on RCP today (10/24) – CNN showing Nunn up by 3, the major Atlanta paper showing Perdue up by 2.  About 5% are undecided, with another 5% for “Libertarian” Amanda Swafford, whom many believe is a stealth candidate financed by Harry Reid to suck votes away from Perdue.

The HFR will make a prediction here:  Perdue is going to win.  The caveat is, not on Nov. 4.  Get ready for weird.  Georgia requires a 50+% victory or else there’s a runoff between the top two.  Nunn has never reached close to 50%, while Swafford prevents Perdue from doing so.  So the odds are very high there will be a runoff.

Now be sitting down.  The runoff will be on January 6.  Three days after the new 114^th Congress is sworn in.  That’s also after the Obamacare rate hikes (delayed until Nov 15), Zero’s giving Amnesty to illegals, and all sorts of Dirty Harry Reid shenanigans in the lame duck session guaranteed to infuriate the Georgia electorate.  Say goodnight, Michelle.

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About those other possible Pub pickups.  In New Hampshire, Pub Scott Brown clearly won his debate with Jeanne Shaheen on Tuesday (10/21).  Brown is hitting every note right on every issue, while Shaheen is on the defensive on everything.  The classic moment in the debate was when she refused to answer “yes or no” when asked if she approved of the job Zero was doing – and the audience laughed at her.

The polls show the race a dead heat – but they were taken before the debate.  It’s no done deal, but let’s put Brown in Likely Win category now.

In North Carolina, Pub Thom Tillis had to debate an empty chair on Tuesday when Dem Sen. Kay Hagan was a no-show.  She skipped because she didn’t want to answer questions about how she steered stimulus money to her family and tried to bribe a judge.

Hagan is now so deranged-desperate she put out a despicably offensive campaign flyer with a picture of a lynched black man. 

Adding to her desperation is a federal judge upholding North Carolina’s Voter ID law.  The race is still a tie, still too close to call – which makes you wonder what the average Tar Heel IQ is.

Lastly, Louisiana.  The idiocy of the Rob Maness spoiler campaign continues, with latest poll showing him getting only 6% but enough to deny the 50+% Bill Cassidy needs to win outright against Mary Landrieu on Nov 4.  Nonetheless , all indications are that Cassidy will handily win the runoff on Dec 6 – especially given how the Reid lame duck session will seal the deal.

Bottom Senate line as of now:  Pub losses: 0.  Pub gains: 8 – possibly 10 with New Hampshire and North Carolina. That would mean 53R-47D – possibly a complete flip to 55R-45D.  Are we singing yet?

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Believe it or not, there was a lot else going on this week – even outside the US. 

ISIS has failed to take Kobane in Syrian Kurdistan.  Russia continues to sink into recession, with the ruble at record lows (53 to the euro, 42 to the dollar), while S&P ranks its bonds at barely above junk status.  The Putin Huilo has a temper tantrum about it.  He’s just like Zero – nothing is ever his fault.

I’ll have a lot more to say about the world after attending an extraordinary high-level defense and diplomatic conference in Paris early next week.  Stay tuned.

Back in the US, Zero’s latest outrage is summarized by the IBD: As America’s Kids Starve On Government Lunches, Illegals Get Second Helpings And Gitmo’s Finest Get Fat.

The legal heroes at Judicial Watch finally forced Holder Justice to turn over at least a portion of incriminating Fast & Furious documents – but not before Zero proclaimed executive privilege excluding emails between Holder and his wife.

The Big Worry now is that Zero and Reid will attempt to do as much possible damage to America as they can during the lame duck post-election session.

One is granting executive amnesty to millions of illegals.  Two is Reid pushing confirmation of hyper-lib judicial appointees.

On the bright side, here’s some great news: Among Students, Republicans Crushing Democrats on Social Media

Still, the best news of the week is expressed by PJ Media’s Roger Kimball describing Dem Panic at the New York Times.  I encourage you to read the whole thing.  Here’s a tease:

"My own suspicion is that the panic is beginning to make inroads in the editorial offices of the New York Times even as it has taken root in the campaign offices of many Democratic contenders.  If you were interested in seeing what a public nervous breakdown looked like, stick around.  The New York Times is already showing signs of coming apart at the seams."

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That’s all, folks.  You’ll hear from me in Paris next week.  The week after… well, you’ll find out.  And don’t forget to consider joining me On The Road To Mandalay.  It’s Free Access so you can send it to everyone you know….

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