THE GOP WAVE ON THE HORIZON

A Republican "wave" has yet to emerge in the midterm elections, which is causing angst in some conservative circles.  This should shake any Republicans out of their complacency, but isn’t a cause for alarm.

For as they look out to sea, bigfoot analysts Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook think they spot it on the horizon rolling in to wash Democrats out of office on Nov. 4.

36 races for governor and all 435 House seats are up, but far and away the most important are the 36 races for the U.S. Senate, where the GOP needs a net gain of six to take control away from Dirty Harry Reid.

Analysts concede GOP pickups in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. What’s causing the angst is that every other race in which Republicans expected to be competitive is rated a tossup, or the Democrat has a lead.

So let’s scan the horizon and see just how big this wave could be.

Many races seem closer than they really are because Democrats have more money, and are spending a lot of it early. As of July 15, the most recent deadline for filing financial disclosure reports with the Federal Elections Commission, every Democrat in a competitive race had spent more -often two or three times more – than his or her GOP opponent.

It’s an advantage, of course, to have more money. But when an incumbent spends a lot of it early, it’s a sign of trouble.

In all but one race, Democrats will retain a money advantage, but it figures to narrow dramatically in most.

The FEC reports cover contributions over two years. Most incumbents built up their money lead with contributions in 2013. In competitive races, late money tends to go predominantly to challengers, and to come from individuals. A much higher percentage of GOP contributions have come from individuals.

Incumbents also benefit from greater name recognition – especially against challengers who had late primaries. But this advantage shrivels between Labor Day and the middle of October.

Because so many journalists slant "news" in favor of Democrats, the first time most voters hear the Republican candidate’s side of an issue is when his or her ads air, which most challengers don’t do much of until after Labor Day.

That’s why the current RealClear Politics average of polls – on which pundits rely upon to determine the status of a race – should be taken with a grain of salt. Many of the polls in it were taken in July and August, before most challengers had spent an appreciable amount on advertising, before some had even won their primaries. And the old polls don’t reflect recent developments, which have not been favorable for Democrats.

The most recent polls showed Republicans with big leads in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, small leads in five others. They indicate the ground is starting to shift beneath the Democrats.

In the RCP average of polls in Alaska, Republican Dan Sullivan and Dem  Sen. Mark Begich are 44 to 42.7, an apparent tossup. But one of the three polls in the average, taken July 31, showed Sen. Begich with a 4 point lead. The most recent poll from last Sunday, Sept. 07, indicates Sullivan is starting to pull away with a 6 point lead.

The same is true in Arkansas, where the RCP average has Rep. Tom Cotton, R, leading Sen. Mark Pryor, D, 44.5 to 44.2, but the most recent poll shows Cotton opening a comfortable lead.

In evaluating polls taken around or before Labor Day, the critical number is the incumbent’s top line. An incumbent who polls below 50 percent is in trouble. An incumbent who polls below 45 percent typically is toast.

Dem Sens. Begich and Pryor are below 45 percent, trending downward. Odds are they’re gone. So is North Carolina Dem Sen. Kay Hagan, D, who trails Republican Thom Tillis in the RCP average, despite having outspent him, $6.97 million to $3.23 million. 

Louisiana Dem Sen. Mary Landrieu trails Rep. Bill Cassidy, R, by just 46 to 44.7 in the RCP average, but the most recent poll – not yet included in the RCP average – shows support for her cratering in the wake of a scandal involving her residence. Cassidy’s lead is larger than it appears, because there is a second, even more conservative Republican in the race, whose supporters doubtless would support Cassidy in the runoff. Mary Landrieu is toast.

Colorado Dem Sen. Mark Udall leads Rep. Cory Gardner, 45.5 to 42.5 in the RCP average. But he bombed in a debate Monday (9/08). He’s outspent Rep. Gardner, $6.05 million to $1.99 million.

In New Hampshire, Dem Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, leads Republican Scott Brown in the RCP average of polls, 47.7 to 42.3, but one of the three polls in the average, taken in July, had Sen. Shaheen up, 50-42. She’s outspent Mr. Brown, $6.03 million to $2.49 million.  Last night (9/09), Brown handily won his primary, so expect him to catch up to Shaheen soon.

In Iowa, where Dem Sen. Tom Harkin is retiring, Dem Rep. Bruce Braley leads Republican Joni Ernst, 42.4 to 42.0 in the RCP average. He’s outspent her, $4.4 million to $1.42 million.

In Michigan, where Sen. Carl Levin, D, is retiring, Rep. Gary Peters, D, leads Republican Terry Lynn Land in the RCP average, 44.6 to 41.8.. He’s outspent her, $4.225 million to $3.93 million. But this is the only race in the country in which the GOP challenger has raised more money than the Democrat. She has twice as much to spend in the campaign’s crucial months as he does.

Even the most current polls probably understate support for the Republican candidate, because elections are decided by the people who vote. In recent elections, only 5 to 8 percent of the voters have been undecided. The votes of the other 92 to 95 percent were determined before the campaign began – provided they actually vote. The biggest variable is which party will get more of its supporters to the polls.

Since 2004, Democrats have had better GOTV operations (and have been more likely to cheat). But Republicans usually have a turnout advantage in midterm elections, which is likely to be swollen this year by President Obama’s unpopularity. In a Pew poll in July, 76 percent of Republicans – but only 67 percent of Democrats – said they were "absolutely certain" to vote.

Democrats have been stressing issues which are hot buttons for liberals (but not for anyone else) in an effort to goose turnout from their base. When President Obama said he would postpone issuing executive orders to grant legal status to millions more illegal immigrants until after the election, he infuriated left wing Hispanic groups.

This is important in Colorado. In every other state with a competitive race, the backlash would have swamped Democrats. But Mr. Obama’s clumsy, blatantly political handling of the issue minimizes the protection his forbearance offers them.

"Breaking his promise made the President look dishonest," said columnist Ruben Navarette. "Admitting that it was about politics made him look weak. But blaming it all on the kids made him look pathetic."

In 2010 and 2012, Republicans lost Senate races they should have won in Missouri, Indiana, Delaware, Nevada and Colorado because they ran bad candidates. This year it’s Democrats – led by gaffemeister Bruce Braley in Iowa – who are making critical mistakes.

Republicans have the best group of candidates they’ve had in many years, seem to have found a way to disarm the "War on Women" meme which worked so well for Democrats in 2012, but which hasn’t been polling well lately.

Manufactured issues such as the "War on Women" work best when not much else is happening. But with bleak job prospects getting worse, Islamist violence spreading throughout the world, and our southern border being overrun, swing voters are unlikely to be pleased that Democrats are talking about "climate change," the Koch brothers, or changing the "racist" name of the professional football team in Washington D.C.

Add Alaska, North Carolina, Arkansas and Louisiana to Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, and Republicans control the Senate, 52-48. The odds favor the GOP in Colorado and Iowa. The Republicans are narrow underdogs in Michigan and New Hampshire, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if either, or both, won. If nothing much changes between now and election day, this should be the ceiling on potential Republican gains.

But if things go further south for President Barack Obama and his party, other Democrat senators who seems to be in good shape now could be dragged down.

In Virginia, Dem Sen. Mark Warner leads Republican Ed Gillespie, 51.7 percent to 32.3 percent in the RCP average of polls. But all the polls in the average were conducted in July, when hardly anyone in Virginia had heard of Ed Gillespie. Sen. Warner has outspent Mr. Gillespie, $4.72 million to $1.05 million.

Sen. Warner is over the magic 50 percent number, but not by much. Warner is personally popular in the Old Dominion, but Barack Obama isn’t, and this is a purplish state.

Minnesota has been a Democrat leaning state for more than half a century. Dem Sen. Al Franken leads Republican Mike McFadden, 50 to 41.7 in the RCP average, but his lead and his topline have been declining. Franken won by only a handful of disputed votes in 2008, a much better year for Democrats than this one is, has an unimpressive record in the Senate.

In Oregon, Dem Sen. Jeff Merkley leads Republican Monica Wehby, 50.3 to 35.8, but is below 50 percent in the most recent poll. He’s outspent her, $3.829 million to $1.403 million.

Two other incumbents in heavily Democrat states are polling poorly. In New Jersey, Dem Sen. Cory Booker leads Republican Jeff Bell in the RCP average, 49 to 36.3, which isn’t surprising, because he’s outspent Bell $12.68 million to $231,000 — 54 to 1. 

Dem Sen. Dick Durbin leads Republican Jim Oberweis, 49.7 to 38.7, in the RCP average in Illinois. If Republican Bruce Rauner thrashes wildly unpopular Dem Gov. Pat Quinn by 55 percent or more, Durbin could be pulled down in the undertow.

The political environment will get chillier for Democrats between now and Nov. 4.  Millions more Americans will be getting bad Obamacare news between now and Oct. 1. Job creation in August was dismal, indicating a sluggish economy is slowing further. No likely developments overseas will be of benefit to the United States, the president, or his party.

The additional chill probably will cement GOP victories in Colorado and Iowa, may give Republicans the edge in New Hampshire and Michigan. But I doubt it will be enough to alter outcomes elsewhere. Unless a black swan alights.

A "black swan," according to statistician Nassim Taleb, who coined the term in a 2007 book, is a major event which comes as a surprise (to most people). An example is the stock market crash in September, 2008, which turned what had appeared to be a close race into a rout for Democrats.

Two black swans flutter in our vicinity. Billionaires Sam Zell, George Soros, Carl Icahn and Stan Druckenmiller think another stock market crash is imminent.  The terrorists of the Islamic State have pledged attacks in the United States.

IS and al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, a terror group based in Yemen, have made plans for terror attacks on 9/11/2014 – that’s, ahem, tomorrow (Thursday) according to an Israeli private intelligence service.

A third black swan would be if it turns out the virus infecting hundreds of children throughout the Midwest was brought here by illegal immigrants.

What constitutes a wave? Absent a black swan, Republicans figure to pick up 7 to 11 seats. Six gives the GOP control, but Republicans need 7 or 8 for effective control (enough to withstand the defection of a moderate Republican or two on a critical vote). Each additional seat is nice to have, but beyond 8 are of little practical significance unless the GOP gains a wildly improbable 15 seats… and if Republicans are foolish enough to restore the old filibuster rule.

But if Republicans are wise enough to accept the gift Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid offered them when he nuked the filibuster last year to pack the U.S. Court of Appeals to protect Obamacare, 55 votes would be enough to shut off debate. A 10 seat GOP gain is within reach without a black swan, a virtual certainty if one alights.

If nothing much changes, Republicans figure to gain 4 to 10 seats in the House. A gain of 6 to 8 would provide a majority large enough to make GOP leaders confident they could withstand defections on critical votes from either disgruntled moderates or the retromingent[1] Right. Anything more is lagniappe.

Jack Kelly is a former Marine and Green Beret and a former deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. He is national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

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[1]  You’re going to have to look that up.  But once you do, you’ll always be on the lookout for an opportunity to use it.

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