WILL NOVEMBER 4 BE THE LONGEST NIGHT EVER FOR DEMS?

Since he began hammering her on illegal immigration, Republican Scott Brown has moved into a statistical tie with Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-NH, according to the WMUR Granite State poll Aug. 22.

Sen. Shaheen now leads, 46-44. In July she’d led, 50 to 38.

The caveats: The poll could be an outlier. Obamacare, the lousy economy and chaos oversees also exert drag on Democrats. Mr. Brown is a good retail campaigner who figures to get more popular as he gets better known.

But if President Obama issues an executive order to grant legal status to millions more illegal immigrants, it isn’t just the WMUR poll that signals doom for Sen. Shaheen and many other Dems running this year.

The president announced in 2012 he would stop deporting illegals who were brought here as small children. The flood of illegals since then has heightened concerns.

Illegal immigrants "threaten traditional U.S. beliefs and customs," said 70 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll Aug. 7. Only 32 percent in a Rasmussen poll Aug. 22 said illegal immigrant children should be permitted to attend local public schools. Two thirds of respondents in an AP/GFK poll in July disapproved of how the president is handling the issue.

Mr. Obama plans to issue another executive order to grant legal status to 5 million more illegals, Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill, said he was told by White House aides.

That’ll make most Americans seriously unhappy, says Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway. Only 21 percent of likely voters in a survey she completed Aug. 20 said they support changing immigration policy through executive action.

Seventy five percent – including 63 percent of Hispanics and 50 percent of Democrats – want stronger enforcement of existing immigration laws. Only 22 percent think unaccompanied minor children who crossed the border illegally should be permitted to remain in the country.

"Government has a responsibility to adopt immigration policies that protect its own unemployed or low wage American workers from competition with illegal immigrants for jobs," said 74 percent, including 65 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of Hispanics.

Two thirds – including 64 percent of union members and 48 percent of Hispanics – think illegals should be denied jobs and welfare benefits to encourage them to return to their home countries.

A "three-pronged approach" providing "extra funding for immigration enforcement, making it easier to return young illegal immigrants to their home countries, and restricting the president’s ability to legalize illegal immigrants on his own" won support from 58 percent, including 54 percent of Democrats. Only 32 percent were opposed.

Those were the key elements of the immigration bill House Republicans passed just before the August recess. The poll question did not identify it as a GOP proposal.

Republican ideas are a lot more popular than Republicans are. In that AP/GFK poll in July, only 29 percent approved of the GOP’s performance on illegal immigration.

The disparity is due in part to media bias, in larger part to GOP infighting and stupidity.

In an effort to appease Hispanic groups (and/or big businessmen who want a steady supply of cheap labor), some "establishment" Republicans backed an abominable bill that would not have secured the border.

In opposing it, some conservatives attacked illegal immigrants rather than the politicians and bureaucrats who neglected their duty to secure the border. That, coupled with their shrieks of "Amnesty!" whenever anyone proposed any kindness – no matter how modest or conditioned – for otherwise law abiding illegals drove away about half the Hispanics who voted for George W. Bush in 2004.

But the epic overreach Mr. Obama is contemplating offers the GOP the opportunity to win them back, and others besides.

Illegal immigration is the issue that most motivates Republicans to vote, and is the issue most likely to attract crossover votes, Ms. Conway’s poll indicates.

Blue collar workers see illegals as competitors for jobs which other administration policies have made way too scarce, Ms. Conway said. Seniors dependent on Social Security and Medicare view illegals as competitors for government benefits.

So if Republicans offer solid, practical measures to secure the border; to speed up deportations (especially of illegals who commit other crimes), and especially to protect jobs and benefits for American citizens, election night could be the longest night for Democrats.

Jack Kelly is a former Marine and Green Beret and a former deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. He is national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Discuss this item on the forum. Click Here!