HALF-FULL REPORT 06/27/14

Before we descend into overwhelm regarding all that’s been going on this week, let’s first talk about the price of oil.

After Stone Age Moslem marauders seized Mosul on June 11 and seemed poised to march on Baghdad, oil traders on both sides of the Pond panicked, sending Brent crude in Europe to a year-high of $116 and WTI in the US to $108.  Energy pundits breathlessly predicted soaring prices to $120 and far beyond.

Yet since the panic spike, both prices have been dropping.  Today (6/27), Brent is at $113, WTI a little above $105.  How come?  One primary reason is the Kurds.

When ISIS seized Mosul, Kurdish Peshmerga forces riposted by seizing Kirkuk and its oilfields.  The Kurdish Barzani government in Irbil (president Massoud Barzani, his nephew Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani) promptly opened up its 400k/bpd pipeline to Turkey, defying Maliki’s orders in Baghdad not to, and is presently pumping 125,000 barrels per day through it. 

The Kurdish crude connects to Turkey’s pipeline ending at the Med port of Ceyhan.  Last week, (6/20), Reuters reported that Kurdish oil offloaded at Ceyhan is being sold to Israel.

On Wednesday (6/25), Irbil announced it has completed a connecting pipeline from the Kirkuk fields to their own pipeline, with Oil Minister Ashti Hawrami predicting 250k/bpd by August, 400k by the end of this year, and a full 1m by the end of 2015.

Maliki in Baghdad is beside himself in fury while the Kurds shrug their shoulders.  They know their dream of full independence is in clear view – with many billions a year in oil revenue to finance it and a battle-hardened Peshmerga army fully capable of preserving it.

Now take a look at The Economist‘s map of the state of geopolitical play as of now:

Note that all of ShiaLand south of Baghdad all the way to Basra and the Persian Gulf is ISIS-free.  That means that Baghdad has not lost a drop of daily production/exports from its southern fields – which are well protected by Shia militias.  There is no way the Sunnis of ISIS are going to take them.

Now note the boundaries of ISIS-seized territory.  There is simply no way they can keep it for long, being landlocked surrounded by hostile governments.  Their dream of creating some Sunni Caliphate there is delusional.  Especially when their Stone Age brutality is causing many Sunni communities and tribes to fight against them.

My sources, for example, tell me that ISIS is now demanding that families in Ninevah province  — Mosul and Tikrit– hand over their unmarried daughters to serve as jihadi prostitutes for their gunmen. 

The bottom line outlook right now is:  Iraqi Kurdistan will secede from Iraq and become independent; the Maliki government in Baghdad will fall; ISIS will fail with its fighters likely to be slaughtered to the last man; a new regime in Baghdad will emerge which Iran will attempt to dominate, which in turn Shia Arabs will attempt to prevent.

What the map of Iraq will look like a year from now is truly indeterminate.  What we can be confidant of is that it won’t look like it does today.

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America’s leader doesn’t have the cojones to stand up to Putin’s bullying, but the leaders of Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia sure do.  Today (6/27) in Brussels, they — Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, and Moldovan Prime Minister Iurie Leanca – signed formal political and economic accords with the European Union.

Putin stamped his foot and made all kinds of threats should they do so, and they shrugged and signed anyway.  It was the sudden refusal of Ukraine’s former leader, Putin’s puppet Viktor Yanukovych, to sign just these accords last November that sparked the revolution against him.

Today Ukraine, joined by Moldova and Georgia, defied the Kremlin and signed a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) agreement for closer economic ties with the EU – making their products freely available to its 500 million consumers – together with an Association Agreement for closer political ties.

This took real moxie, and reflects the determination of the people of all three former Soviet Russian colonies to thumb their nose at the Kremlin.

It is thus that the HFR considers their leaders — Petro Poroshenko, Irakli Garibashvili, and Iurie Leanca – as the Heroes of the Week.

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In addition to Jack Kelly standing in for me last week with another of his great HFRs, he also helped me keep abreast of what’s been going on this week while I’ve been in Namibia.  Here are some excerpts from what he tells me:

The gross domestic product fell at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the first quarter this year (Jan, Feb, March), according to the "final revision" of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That’s the biggest drop since Q1 of 2009.

"US GDP has never fallen more than 1.5% except during or just before an NBER-defined recession since quarterly GDP records began in 1947," Zero Hedge reminds us.

It’s because the weather was so cold, libs say (so much for global warming). "Tyler Durden" thinks there was another reason…

…Smug IRS Commissioner John Koskinen has the makings of a great Bond villain, thinks Rosslyn Smith. Watching Rep. Trey Gowdy, R-SC, eviscerate him during the House Oversight Committee hearing Monday night (6/23) is must see TV.  Gowdy takes this arrogant IRS schmuck apart – it is glorious:

Most still ignore or downplay the IRS scandal, but more fissures are forming in the media wall of Omerta.  MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough was incensed by the lack of coverage. He was "naïve" to give Obama the benefit of the doubt, said Ron Fournier of the National Journal.

Democrats vigorously defended the IRS.  Rep. Elijah Cummings, D-Maryland, the ranking Democrat, who is up to his neck in the IRS scandal, was the most fulsome. Rep. Gerald Connolly, D-VA, was almost as obnoxious.

Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-MO, isn’t sure defending the IRS is such a good strategy. Former Obamunist aide Van Jones doesn’t think so either.

Are Republicans angry enough now to do the one thing that would wipe the smug smiles off the bureaucrat’s faces?  I’ve never seen mild mannered Rep. Paul Ryan, R-WI, as steamed as he was at Koskinen. Come January, when he’ll be Chairman of Ways & Means, I can see him writing a tax reform bill that essentially dismembers the IRS.

For quite some while, you [that’s Jack Kelly referring to me] have urged a defunding strategy. I doubt it would have worked before, because public opinion wasn’t on our side. It is now.

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 Thanks for that, Mr. Kelly!

Zero is in Minnesota today – and it turns out there’s a Minnesota canary in the Democrat coal mine.  HotAir has the luscious story:  It’s That Bad:  Even Al Franken Won’t Be Seen With Obama.

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Not a good week for Zero.  He got his presidential butt kicked three times this week by the Supremes.  As my long-time friend John Fund relates, this is the 12 & 13^th time since January 2012 the Supreme Court has unanimously stomped on his skinny derrière.

Yes, even his own nominees, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan agreed with Scalia and Thomas to strike down the 35-foot protest-free zone outside abortion clinics, and limit Zero’s recess appointments yesterday (6/26), plus to ban warrantless cell phone searches on Wednesday (6/25).  All three of these decisions were 9-0.

Actually, there was a fourth decision this week (6/23), but it was a complicated split decision, with various Justices dissenting and affirming various parts.  The result was a spanking of the EPA’s abuse of the Clean Air Act, but unfortunately with the EPA’s fascist authority to regulate emissions of "greenhouse gases" left basically intact. 

Nonetheless, the decision "is potentially a huge setback for the climatistas," Steven Hayward thinks. Ken Klukowski agrees.

That said, Zero and Holder Justice are unanimous three-time losers this week.  Ouch.

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It’s also been a bad week for The PIAPS – or as Moochelle and ValJar prefer to call her, The Hildebeest.

Sales of her book, "Hard Choices" – sounds like the title of a porno flick – have crashed.  Publisher Simon & Schuster won’t even make up the advance.  Amazon is already offering a 40% discount and there are few takers. 

Meanwhile, Bill, Hillary, and Chelsea pretend they aren’t filthy rich, with hilarious results. Reviews have been unkind.

Some influential Dems told Philip Rucker of the Washington Post (off the record, of course) Hillary is "imperial," the "Democrat Mitt Romney," "totally cut off" from the middle class.

Much of the snark comes from current and former Obama administration officials, which lends credence to author Ed Klein’s assertion the Clintons and the Obamas don’t like each other at all.

One of Rucker’s Dem sources told him Hillary’s stumbles should prompt Demonrats to "panic."  If the ridiculous excuses her people make for her are an indication, Democrats already are, Noah Rothman thinks. 

On top of all this, last night (6/26) on Fox, Ann Coulter revealed a recently discovered audio tape of Hillary boasting of her being the defense attorney for a man brutally beating and raping a 12 year old girl in 1975.  She bragged on the tape of her using a legal technicality to get the rapist’s sentence reduced to a lesser charge.  You can listen to the recording here.

Dems better start looking for someone else in 2016.  But who’re they gonna call?  SloJo Biden?  Moochelle?

(Oh, by the way, TTPer Jason asked about the chances of a Hillary-Mrs. Zero ticket.  No way – they hate each other’s guts.)

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It’s little wonder why Tea Party groups are apoplectic over Thad Cochran’s stealing the runoff election in Mississippi.  The state allows Dems to vote in a Pub primary, and Cochran got hordes of them to cross over.  Across the country, this solidifies the war between Tea Parties and the Pub Elite Court Party Establishment. 

Thank heavens Chris McDaniel is not conceding.  He’s found "thousands of voting irregularities," over 1,000 in just one county alone, he told Fox’s Sean Hannity.  With any luck, he’ll invalidate the runoff, and in the process, destroy the Cochran-Barbour GOP party machine in Ole Miss.

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There couldn’t be any clearer evidence of Zero’s hatred of America and his determination to wreck it than by his opening up the border with Mexico and encouraging a tsunami of illegal alien children to flood across it.  As many pundits are noting, if he were a Republican – or even a white Democrat – he’d be impeached for this alone, not to mention the myriad of other gross High Crimes and Misdemeanors he has perpetrated.

The only possible bright spot on this dark horizon is that, as the WaPo tearfully reports, Immigration Reform Dead Until Obama Leaves Office.  And that "reform" is going to be completely different under a President Cruz than the amnesty the WaPo and the Hate America Left envisions.

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Which brings the HFR to a point made repeatedly by TTP over its 11 year existence:  that the Left – The Dems and Moonbats – can’t find it in their hearts to be proud to be American.

And indeed, this was confirmed by a Pew Research Study released yesterday (6/26), showing that fully 60% of people who categorize themselves as "Solid Liberals" do not feel "proud to be an American."

We berate squishy Pubs as "RINOs" – Republicans In Name Only.  But however much they infuriate us for selling out or not having the courage to live up to their professed principles, they’re still Americans who proudly salute the flag, recite the Pledge of Allegiance, and sing God Bless America.

This is not the case with the Dems, Moonbats, and Solid Liberals.  They are not proud, but rather embarrassed to be American.  Thus, I propose we refer to these folks as AINOs – Americans In Name Only.  For that is what they are, and that is how we should look upon them – until and unless they show us they are otherwise.

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We’ll close with an inspiring video.  Last week (6/16), the Heritage Foundation held a panel discussion on Benghazi.  One of the panelists was Brigette Gabriel.  Her response to a question asked by an Islamic lady wearing a hijab received a cheering standing ovation.  You’ll feel like standing and cheering when your hear her.

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