THE SHIP OF WARMIST FOOLS

In the mega best seller of the Renaissance, Das Narrenschiff, German theologian Sebastian Brant in 1494 satirized the pretensions, delusions and follies of his day through descriptions of passengers on a ship bound for the fool’s paradise of "Narragonia."

Brant’s depiction of humanity as a ship of fools sailing without rudder or compass captured our imagination then and now, inspiring a painting by Hieronymous Bosch, a song by the Grateful Dead.

So when the research ship Akademik Shokalskiy got stuck in the ice about 40 miles from Antarctica, those who knew the purpose of its voyage dubbed it the "Ship of Fools."

"It would take a heart of stone not to laugh," said British journalist Leo McKinstry.

Aboard the vessel were 22 scientists headed by Chris Turney, a professor of climate change at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia; his wife and two children; four journalists, and 26 tourists.

By comparing their measurements with those taken by Australian explorer Sir Douglas Mawson in 1913, they hoped "to prove the East Antarctic ice sheet is melting," noted the Australian, a newspaper in Sydney. 

It was "a pseudo-scientific expedition," the director of the French Polar Institute told Agence France Presse.  It was mostly a publicity stunt, the presence of journalists and tourists suggests.  It backfired. Big time.

"The debacle in the Antarctic ice is probably the largest setback for global warming campaigners since Climategate scandal in 2009," said Christopher Caldwell of the (London) Financial Times.

There’s more sea ice around Antarctica than at any time since the U.S. Snow and Data Center began keeping records in 1978. 

"Mawson’s ship was never icebound," the Australian noted. 

The buildup of Antarctic sea ice doesn’t disprove the theory of anthropogenic (man-made) global warming.  But it sure casts doubt on computer models which said the ice is disappearing.

During the eight days he awaited rescue, Prof. Turney continued to assert Antarctic sea ice is melting.  It’s been growing for 35 years, but Prof. Turney evidently concluded that if what he saw contradicted his climate model, his eyes must be lying.

There are no believers like true believers.  Prof. Turney could have been captain of Das Narrenschiff.

Or maybe he was just trying to protect his business interests.  Prof. Turney is a founder of Carbonscape, a company whose profitability depends on the willingness of people to pay enormous sums to reduce "greenhouse" gas emissions.  If they paid more attention to real world measurements than to his climate model, not many would be.

It was warmer in Antarctica Monday than in Chicago, where a record low temperature for Jan. 6 was set.  There were record lows from Minnesota to Florida.

"If you’re under 40, you’ve not seen this stuff before," meteorologist Ryan Maue told the Associated Press.

The big chill was caused by a "polar vortex," an area of low pressure which brings Arctic air much further south than usual. This is weather, not climate, but the icy temperatures were the latest blow to the credibility of alarmists who claim the planet is warming dangerously. 

There were more record lows than highs in the U.S. last year, for the first time since 1993.  For the 17th consecutive year, global temperatures were lower than in 1998. Arctic sea ice expanded by about 50 percent, confounding predictions the Arctic would be ice free by the summer of 2013.

Warming in the Arctic could have caused the polar vortex, desperate alarmists claimed.  But no evidence supports them.

"Polar vortices have been around forever," said Princeton physicist Will Happer. "They have almost nothing to do with more CO2 in the atmosphere."

"How can anyone claim that a rapidly warming Arctic would produce record cold air?" asked Steven Goddard, publisher of the RealScience blog, who notes the Arctic is colder now than it was 70 years ago.  "How can -65F Arctic air be melting ice?"

Time Magazine was among those claiming global warming caused the polar vortex. The polar vortex signals the approach of a new ice age, Time had said in 1974.

Time was wrong then, too, but cooling was the way to bet.  Periods of relative warmth have been so rare geologists call them "interglacial."

Since satellites began measuring temperatures in the lower troposphere (where, in theory, global warming is most likely to occur) in 1979, last year was the fourth warmest (after 1998, 2010 and 2005).  But 2013 was just 0.406 degrees Celsius (0.731 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than 1979.

Since 1979, 17 years have been warmer than the 30 year average, 19 cooler. The warmest year (1998) was just 1.39 degrees F warmer than the coolest (1984).  That’s well within the range of natural fluctuation.  The variance between the average temperature in Pittsburgh in January and the average temperature in Philadelphia that month is three times as great.

It was warmer in Medieval times, a Swedish study in December confirmed.  The Medieval Warm Period (950-1250 AD) and the Roman Warm Period (250 BC-400 AD) were happy times for humanity.  The big chill reminds us it’s cold that kills.

Temperatures fluctuate, but the planet isn’t warming appreciably. Soon we may wish it were.  "Interglacial" periods between ice ages have lasted about 11,000 years, on average.  Our "interglacial" began 11,000 years ago.

Jack Kelly is a former Marine and Green Beret and a former deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. He is national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.