BUYER’S REMORSE ON OBAMA

Confidence in President Barack Hussein Obama Jr.’s stewardship of the economy has declined, especially among young adults, according to polls conducted in late April.

With good reason.  The national unemployment rate was 7.5 percent in April, down from 7.7 percent last November — but 11.1 percent for Americans aged 18 to 29.

The unemployment rate fell because more stopped looking for jobs. The labor force participation rate in April was the lowest since 1979.

The unemployment rate among 18 to 29 year olds would have been 16.1 percent if discouraged workers had been counted, said Evan Feinberg, president of Generation Opportunity.

Less than two thirds of the 7.7 million private sector jobs lost during the Great Recession have been replaced — mostly by jobs which aren’t as good.  About 60 percent of the jobs lost — but only 27 percent of jobs added — have been in mid-wage occupations, said the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Real (inflation adjusted) average hourly earnings for private sector workers were lower in April than when President Obama took office.  Almost 20 percent of the jobs created in April were part time.  The average work week for employees on private nonfarm payrolls fell 12 minutes to 34.4 hours.

Small business owners let more people go last year than they hired. In a Gallup poll in January, 61 percent of small business owners said worries about health care costs was a reason why.

"Since Obamacare regulations do not apply until a business has 50 or more employees, smaller businesses are not hiring the 50th employee or laying off to get to 49," said Rep. Bill Cassidy, R-La, a physician.

Or replacing full time workers with part-timers.

"Retailers are cutting worker hours at a rate not seen in more than three decades – a sudden shift that can only be explained by the onset of ObamaCare’s employer mandates," Investors Business Daily reported May 3.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated 800,000 jobs will be lost over ten years.  The CBO estimate doesn’t include the impact on employment of the additional taxes imposed by Obamacare, so job losses likely will exceed one million, said Duke University Prof. Chris Conover, who teaches health policy.

The fines Obamacare will impose on companies which don’t provide health insurance for their workers are much less than what most spend for health insurance, so companies can reduce costs about 40 percent if they cancel their plans and throw workers onto the public health care "exchanges."

Fortune 100 companies could save nearly $0.5 trillion by dumping their health plans, the House Ways & Means Committee estimated.  About 30 percent of private sector firms are likely to drop their health insurance plans, estimated McKinsey & Co.

Employees dumped onto health care exchanges would have to pay 79 percent to 125 percent more for insurance, even after receiving federal subsidies, estimated Lockton, a firm that advises mid-sized companies on health plans.  That’s because most employer plans cover 80 percent or more of health costs, but for most who buy insurance from exchanges, Obamacare subsidies will cover 70 percent or less.

CBO estimates the cost of Obamacare insurance  subsidies at $1.4 trillion for the years 2012-21.  But CBO assumed few companies would drop their insurance plans – ridiculous in view of the incentives to do just that.  The actuary for Medicare and Medicaid estimates 14 million workers will lose their private health insurance.  If so, costs could be 46 percent higher.

As unions learn they’re likely to lose their health insurance plans, they’re experiencing buyers’ remorse. 

"It would be ironic indeed if many of the private sector unions who supported Obamacare had actually signed their own death warrant," said Newsweek economics writer Megan McArdle.  "But it seems this may be what has happened."

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel plans to dump retired city workers onto exchanges next year.  Other cash strapped cities may follow suit. So government unions are in for nasty surprises, too.

Obamacare’s burdens fall most heavily on healthy young people, who face, on average, premium increases of 189 percent if they buy individual policies, 145 percent if they buy health insurance as part of small groups, according to the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

President Obama was re-elected chiefly because he won the votes of 18 to 29 year olds, 60 percent to 36 percent.  Young adults disproportionately are among those euphemistically described as Lo-Fo’s or "low information" voters.  But come January, far fewer will be "low information" about what Obamacare has in store for them. 

If I were a Democrat, that would keep me up nights.

Jack Kelly is a former Marine and Green Beret and a former deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. He is national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.