COULD SANTORUM BE MORE THAN JUST THE LATEST NOT-ROMNEY?

The consensus among pundits two weeks ago was that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, having clobbered former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in the Florida primary Jan. 31, was (yet again) the ‘inevitable’ Republican nominee for president.  Now they are saying that if Mr. Romney loses the Michigan primary next Tuesday (Feb. 28), it could be curtains.

‘If Romney loses Michigan, we need a new candidate,’ ABC’s Jonathan Karl said he was told by a ‘prominent Republican senator.’

Mr. Romney shouldn’t lose in Michigan.  He grew up there, where his father was a popular governor, and where he won, comfortably, the presidential primary in 2008.  But polls show him trailing former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

Two weeks ago, Rick Santorum was for most pundits a non-factor.  A sweep of caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado and a beauty contest primary in Missouri Feb. 7 turned that around. Mr. Santorum had a 10 point lead in Gallup’s national tracking poll Monday.  He had substantial leads in polls in Washington state, which votes March 3, and in Ohio and Oklahoma, which vote March 6.

Mr. Gingrich, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and businessman Herman Cain all once had big leads in national polls.  Mr. Santorum may be just the latest Not Romney to soar like an eagle, then plummet like a stone.  Mr. Romney’s huge bankroll, large and experienced staff, and numerous endorsements ultimately will bring him victory in Michigan, most pundits think.

Yet if the dogs won’t eat the dog food, it doesn’t matter much how much you spend to advertise it. The success, however ephemeral, of so many Not Romneys suggests Mr. Romney has a problem that money, organization and endorsements may not overcome.

Mr. Romney has been the frontrunner chiefly because Republicans care more about nominating a candidate who can defeat Barack Hussein Obama than about nominating a candidate who more closely reflects their views.  Many in Iowa, New Hampshire and Florida who think Mr. Romney is insufficiently conservative voted for him anyway because he did much better in head to head matchups with Mr. Obama than did Mr. Gingrich, Gov. Perry, or Mr. Cain.

But there is now no statistical difference between Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum in head to head matchups with the president.

The other factor buoying Mr. Romney has been the grave weaknesses of the earlier Not Romneys.  Mr. Gingrich has more baggage than Amtrak.  Gov. Perry convinced many who watched his first few debates that he was a moron, which far better later performances couldn’t overcome.  Mr. Cain knows nothing about foreign policy, and, apparently, has a wandering eye for the ladies.

Compared to these flaws, Mr. Romney’s dullness, flip-flops, and Romneycare in Massachusetts don’t seem so bad.

Rick Santorum was written off originally because when he ran for re-election to the Senate in 2006, he got clobbered by Bob Casey, who has since given new meaning to the term ‘nondescript.’  But an electoral defeat is not a character flaw.

The new knock is that the emphasis Mr. Santorum, a devout Catholic, places on social issues is an electoral disaster. The ‘prominent Republican senator’ to whom Mr. Karl spoke thinks he’d lose 35 states.

Au contraire, notes Jeff Bell, an architect of the Reagan revolution.  When social issues are emphasized, Republicans usually win.  That’s because social conservatism is a response to liberal aggression, and is especially appealing to blue collar workers in the swing states of the Midwest, which are more socially than economically conservative, Mr. Bell argues in his new book, ‘The Case for Polarized Politics: Why America Needs Social Conservatism.’

And whether or not you agree with Mr. Santorum on abortion or gay marriage, it’s clear he’s saying what he believes, which isn’t so clear about Mr. Romney, Mr. Gingrich, or Mr. Obama.

Mr. Romney thinks he can succeed, as he did in Florida, by pounding away at his opponent.  But Rick Santorum is not Newt Gingrich.

Mr. Romney is running ads in Michigan accusing Mr. Santorum of being insufficiently conservative. That’s an implausible charge to make against a guy whose lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union is 88 percent, and it’s hypocritical for Mr. Romney to make it.

Mr. Romney is vulnerable because he has yet to make a compelling case for his own candidacy.  By failing to understand this, he is squandering the advantage his massive war chest gives him.  Rick Santorum is not yet the frontrunner.  But soon he may be.

Jack Kelly is a former Marine and Green Beret and a former deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. He is national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.