HERMAN AND HILLARY

The worst nightmare for Democrats is that Barack Hussein Obama will run for re-election.  If he’s at the top of the ticket, Democrats will be drubbed worse than they were in 2010, indicated a survey Sept. 22 by Democrat pollster Stanley Greenberg.

The worst nightmare for Republicans is that he won’t.  Hillary Clinton is the most popular political figure in America, according to a Bloomberg poll Sept. 16.

Democrats could have more sleepless nights, Republicans fewer restless ones if Herman Cain wins the Republican nomination.

These are heady times for Mr. Cain, 65.  Long mired in single digits, he’s taken the lead in one national poll, is hot on the heels of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in another.

Mr. Cain has been thrust aloft by the air rushing out of the balloon of Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who in debates has been all hat and no cattle.  After Mr. Cain’s stunning victory in the Florida straw poll Sept. 24, Republicans are taking a second look.

Gov. Perry’s swift rise and sudden fall illustrates the extraordinary volatility of the GOP race.  Rep. Michele Bachmann soared like an eagle after a strong performance in a debate in June, then plummeted like a stone.

There is in this volatility a consistent theme: "Republican voters are searching for someone, anyone, other than Mitt Romney," said Robert Tracinski of RealClear Politics.

The race should narrow to a candidate favored by the GOP establishment, and a conservative "outsider," most analysts think.  Mr. Romney has locked up the establishment slot.  Ms. Bachmann and Mr. Perry auditioned for the role of "outsider," but have been found wanting.  Is it Herman Cain’s turn now?

Perhaps – but note that Ms. Bachmann is over because of her intemperate attack ("government needles into 12 year old girls") on Mr. Perry.  Two days ago (10/02), Mr. Cain suffered what is being called his "Bachmann moment."

One of the things people liked best about Cain in the debates was that he directed his fire at Zero, not at the other GOP candidates on the stage.  When the WaPo "Niggerhead Rock" smear hit piece came out the day before (10/01), which is beneath contempt, Cain could have scored points had he defended Perry from this trumped up, strained allegation of racism.  Instead, he pulled a Bachmann and attacked Perry.  Big mistake.

There’s also a fatal flaw with his 9-9-9 tax reform plan to which he seems oblivious.  One of his 9’s is a national sales tax, which conservatives will never allow until the 16^th Amendment is repealed (something Mr. Perry advocates) – or else we’ll end up with a NST that will morph into a European-type VAT tax (starting out at under 10%, it’s now over 20% in most countries) plus an income tax that also stands little chance of staying in single digits.

So there’s little likelihood 9-9-9 will be enacted. That said, his argument for pro-business tax reform and a stable tax code is a net plus for his campaign.  What is a net negative is that he has no idea how to run a presidential campaign – although to be fair, he is very smart and a very fast learner.  His fund raising and logistical organization are a shambles.  He may well be unable to raise anywhere near enough money to adequately organize and compete with Perry or Romney.

Mr. Romney has formidable advantages despite muted enthusiasm for him.  "Amateurs talk about strategy; professionals talk about logistics," they say in the military.  So too in politics.  Mr. Romney has a big war chest, experienced advisers, strong organizations in the early primary states.

Florida’s decision to move its primary to Jan. 31 enhances Mr. Romney’s logistical advantages.  Only 51 percent of Americans have heard of Herman Cain, according to a Gallup poll Sept. 27.  He’ll have little time to introduce himself to the rest before voting begins, and few resources with which to do it.

And it is far too soon to count Mr. Perry out.  A lot will be riding on his performance in the next debate on October 11.  If he comes on strong and impressive, Perry is game on again with the spotlight on him – which means it is no longer on Cain.  The only way Cain can win is to outshine everyone else in the debates, including or especially Perry.

Depending on the debates’ outcome – note that’s plural, but it could be singular if Perry fails again on 10/11 – this will be a two man race fairly soon:  Perry v. Romney or Cain v. Romney. 

Republicans care more about removing Mr. Obama from office than which Republican does it.  Since polls show him beating the president, this may be Mr. Romney’s biggest advantage.

But Barack Obama may not be the Democrat candidate.  According to "insider" gossip, the president likes the perks of his job, but not actually doing it.  Now that the cheers have turned to jeers, he may decide not to run again. 

Mr. Romney likely would lose to Hillary Clinton, and so might Mr. Perry.  But if blacks think white Democrats pushed Mr. Obama out, Mr. Cain could get a third or more of black votes.  If just 15 percent of blacks vote Republican, Democrats are doomed in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

There are other reasons for Republicans to nominate Herman Cain.  One of the best may be his ability to bring blacks back to the Party of Lincoln.  

Jack Kelly is a former Marine and Green Beret and a former deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. He is national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.