PRESIDENT BIDEN

Will the next president of the United States be Joe Biden?  That’s not the way to bet, of course.  But it isn’t as unlikely as you might think.

It remains to be seen whether what happened Nov. 2 will be an episode, as 1994 and 1946 turned out to be, or the beginning of a political realignment, as the 1930 midterm election was.

Because they fear it might be the beginning of realignment, many Democrats do not want President Barack Hussein Obama to run for re-election.  Arguably the most important of the reasons for the debacle was the defection from the Democrats of working class whites who’d voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primaries.  If Mr. Obama is at the top of the ticket in 2012, they are unlikely to return.

Mr. Obama may prefer not to seek re-election.  The gossip from supposed insiders is that he doesn’t like the job very much (it involves more work than he’s used to).  If he thinks Americans are insufficiently appreciative of his genius, he could return to Chicago to a sinecure at a local university, a book contract, lecture fees. and the more leisurely schedule he evidently prefers.

That would avert the Democrats’ worst nightmare, a bruising primary battle.  (Even before this election, 47 percent of Democrats said in an AP poll they’d like to have Mr. Obama challenged in the primaries.) Whoever won the nomination likely would lose the general election, though the damage would be greater if Mr. Obama prevailed.

Mr. Obama almost certainly would prevail, unless he were challenged by Hillary Clinton.  But it would be awkward for the Secretary of State to take on her boss.  A primary would pit her against black voters, the most loyal Democrats.  And Ms. Clinton doubtless remembers that Sen. Ted Kennedy, then the most popular Democrat, was unable to beat the unpopular President Jimmy Carter in the 1980 primaries.

If Mr. Obama decides not to run again, Democrats would be spared fratricide.  But should he make that decision, he is unlikely to make it public, lest he become the most crippled of lame ducks.  With Republicans in control of the House, and surviving Democrats in Congress resentful, he’ll have difficulty enough maintaining a semblance of authority.

So Barack Hussein Obama will still be president, and that is a problem for Democrats.  The man likened on inauguration day to Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt is now compared  to Jimmy Carter and Richard Nixon.  (Comedian Jimmy Fallon notes:  "Barack Obama became Jimmy Carter faster than Jimmy Carter became Jimmy Carter.")

How much of a problem depends on how Mr. Obama behaves.  If he heeds the voice of the voters, the problem will be minimized.  But if he digs in his heels and resists to the bitter end modification of the policies voters in the midterms found so repugnant, the problem will be exacerbated.

Alas for Democrats, Mr. Obama has enormous difficulty admitting error.

Legislative initiative rests with Republicans.  Democrats in Congress will be forced into one awkward vote after another.

Worse, Republicans will have subpoena power.  They’ll be able to look into shady doings a compliant news media have ignored, and Democrats in Congress have covered up.

If Mr. Obama signals privately he won’t seek re-election, Democrats will suffer through this in relative silence.  But if he’s determined to run for another term, more drastic measures may be taken.

Democrats have laughed at "birthers," but if there is evidence Mr. Obama was born outside the United States, it will be Democrats who produce it.  The revelation would make Mr. Obama go away, without tainting the party.  Alas for Democrats, there is no evidence Mr. Obama was born anywhere except Hawaii.

Failing that, if Mr. Obama could be forced to resign as a result of a personal scandal, or one restricted to Chicago Democrats (who everybody knows are corrupt), damage to the Democratic brand nationally would be minimal.

That would make the vice president president.  Mr. Biden is a buffoon.  No one would expect him to seek the presidential nomination in 2012.  The heir apparent would be his likely replacement as vice president, Hillary Clinton.

This is mere speculation, of course.  But if you see journalists who ignored him in 2008 taking a sudden interest in Tony Rezko (the convicted Chicago influence peddler who helped Mr. Obama get his house at a substantial discount), you’ll know the game is afoot.

Jack Kelly is a former Marine and Green Beret and a former deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. He is national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.