IT’S THE DEMS WHO ARE LOSING POPULARITY, NOT REPUBLICANS

The analysis of the most recent Gallup Poll by Managing Editor Jeffrey M. Jones reads like a requiem for the Republican party.

"GOP losses span nearly all demographic groups," said the headline on the press release May 18.  "Only frequent churchgoers show no decline in support since 2001."

The analysis will be fodder for those commentators who assert  Republicans must radically alter course or face extinction in the Age of Obama.  But the polling data Gallup released doesn’t support Mr. Jones’ conclusions.

According to Gallup, only 32 percent of those polled by Gallup May 7-10 identified themselves as Republicans.  But that’s the highest percentage since Aug. 18-20 of 2006, when 33 percent said they were Republicans.

And it’s a significant increase in a month.  In April 6-9, only 24 percent of respondents called themselves Republicans.

In that same poll, only 32 percent of respondents identified themselves as Democrats.  That’s exactly the same as Republicans, and represents a decline of four percentage points from April 20-21, six since Mar 5-8.

Let’s reprise.  Exactly the same proportion of the electorate in the most recent Gallup Poll identify themselves as Republicans as identify themselves as Democrats.  This represents in the space of a month a significant gain for Republicans, and a significant loss for Democrats.

A plurality of voters — 34 percent in the most recent poll — identify themselves as independents.  In 2006 and 2008, independents broke heavily for Democrats.  If that is still true, then Mr. Jones’ focus the weakness of the GOP would be correct, despite the positive change for Republicans in partisan identification.

But according to Gallup, it isn’t.  Gallup asked the independents which way they "lean."  When leaners are included, 45 percent of those polled favored the Republicans, 45 percent favored the Democrats.  Again, dead even.  The last time that happened was in June of 2005.

What are the political implications of a tie?  In the Gallup Poll taken Nov. 7-10, 2004, all respondents, with leaners, showed 48 percent for Republicans, 48 percent for Democrats.  In that election, President Bush was re-elected.  Republicans gained four seats in the Senate to control that body, 55-45, and won five additional seats in the House, to control that body, 232-203.

The decline in support for Democrats among independents is more dramatic than the change in party identification.  When leaners were included in the poll taken April 20-21, all voters favored the Democrats, 50-39.  In the poll taken around election day in 2008, all those surveyed favored the Democrats, 51-40.

A shift in public sentiment toward the GOP also has been noted by Rasmussen Reports.  A telephone poll released May 12 indicated 40 percent of respondents would vote for a Republican for Congress, 39 percent for a Democrat.  This was the third week in a row in which Republicans led in the generic Congressional ballot.

A serious person analyzing this data would wonder what it is the Democrats have done to cause so much erosion in their support in so short a time, especially among independents.  But Mr. Jones writes only of the GOP’s alleged troubles.  What we are getting from him is not analysis, but the most egregious form of spin.

This most recent Gallup Poll isn’t the only one being spun.  We’re told constantly how popular President Obama is.  Yet after 100 days, Mr. Obama, at 63 percent, trailed Jimmy Carter (69 percent), Dwight Eisenhower (71 percent) and John Kennedy (74 percent), and was statistically tied with Richard Nixon (62 percent).

The Democrats’ dip in popularity has occurred before anything really bad has happened that can be attributed to them. 

The economy stinks, but it was bad when President Obama took office.  Republicans think Mr. Obama’s massive spending will lead to stagflation, or worse, and that his weakness abroad will lead to foreign policy crises. 

But neither has materialized yet.  If either does, it will cause a decline in popularity for Democrats even Jeffrey M. Jones will be compelled to notice.

Jack Kelly is a former Marine and Green Beret and a former deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. He is national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette