THE OBAMAMAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN

No sooner had Hillary Clinton won a near landslide victory in the Pennsylvania primary on April 22 than major media figures were renewing their calls for her to drop out of the race. But there is a whiff of panic about them now.

In an editorial Wednesday (4/23), the New York Times called Sen. Clinton's ten percentage point victory of 55% to 45%  in the nation's sixth largest state  "inconclusive," and described the campaign that preceded it as "even meaner, more vacuous, more desperate, and more filled with pandering than the mean, vacuous, desperate, pander-filled contests that preceded it."

Sen. Clinton is mostly responsible for the negative tone of the campaign, the Times said.  She should stop criticizing Sen. Barack Hussein Obama, Jr.: "If she is ever to have a hope of persuading (super delegates) to come back to her side, let alone win over the larger body of voters, she has to call off the dogs," the Times said.

Hmm.  Fifty-five percent seems like "the larger body of voters." The Clinton campaign reported she raked in nearly $10 million in contributions over the Internet in the 24 hours following her Pennsylvania win.  That suggests some Democrats aren't put off by her criticisms of Sen. Obama.

"None of the voters want this race to end," said pollster Frank Luntz.  "The people who want the race to end are the pundits."

It would seem to be against the professional interest of journalists to pine for a premature end to the most exciting Democrat race since 1980.  But many think it more important to protect Barack Obama from scrutiny than to follow a good story. 

Like the Wizard of Oz, they don't want you to peer behind the curtain, lest you be unimpressed by what you see.  The longer the contest goes on, the higher the curtain is raised.

Sen. Obama is hiding from a girl. 

That's the Clinton spin on his decision to back out of a debate before the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.  As a matter of political tactics, his decision is sound.  Sen. Obama is the front runner.  He's got nothing to gain from another debate.  And potentially much to lose — though it's unlikely he'll ever again be as awful as he was in Philadelphia April 16. 

He doesn't want to answer any more questions about his relationship with his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, or with former Weatherman terrorist Bill Ayres (and most in journalism don't want to ask them).  But his refusal to debate supports Sen. Clinton's insinuation he doesn't have what it takes to be president.

Those pundits who haven't declared Hillary's campaign hopeless say she faces a must win primary in Indiana May 6.  That's true.

But Sen. Obama also faces a must-win primary that day in North Carolina.  If he does as poorly among blue collar whites as he did in Pennsylvania, doubts about his viability as a general election candidate will be intensified.

Hillary is clearly the better general election candidate.  A higher proportion of her supporters than of Obama supporters say they'll bolt if their candidate loses the nomination.  (In exit polls in Pennsylvania, 15 percent of Hillary supporters said they'd vote for Sen. McCain; 10 percent said they'd stay home.  Ten percent of Obama supporters said they'd vote for McCain; 7 percent said they'd stay home.)

Hillary's supporters are more likely to mean what they say.  They are unsettled by Sen. Obamas's ties to a racist preacher, and are offended by his condescension towards rural whites.  Obama supporters who are upset with Hillary are upset mostly because she is an obstacle in the path of the Anointed One.  That's easier to get over before it's time to vote in November. 

In most current polls, Sen. Obama runs slightly better than does Sen. Clinton in matchups against Sen. McCain.  But Sen. Clinton runs more strongly in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida that Democrats must carry in order to win the election.

Sen. Clinton is never going to more unpopular than she is right now.  Republicans have never liked her, and many Obama supporters are mad at her.  But that antipathy is likely to fade if she is the nominee. 

Sen. Obama, on the other hand, never will be more popular than he is right now.  His press coverage has been hagiographic, and we didn't know much about him.  When he spoke about hope and change, we could imagine he would make the changes we were hoping for.  But as we see more of the man behind the curtain, it's harder to sustain those illusions.
 

Jack Kelly is a former Marine and Green Beret and a former deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. He is national security writer for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette .