THE MAN WHO WASN’T THERE

"Right on track, Jack."  That's what one of the main campaign managers of The Man Who Wasn't There told me today.

He and his colleagues are happy, happy guys n' gals.  "This is going exactly as expected," they exude.  "And it's a strategy that has never been tried before.  If it works like we think it's going to, the world will think we're bloody geniuses."

Pause, after a bemused glance is directed at them.

"Yeah, well, right, it's the boss's strategy, so, okay,  he's actually the genius."

"The boss," the man who wasn't there in Iowa, Wyoming, and New Hampshire, the man who won't be there in Michigan, Nevada, or South Carolina, is, of course, Rudy Giuliani.

The ideal result of the pre-Florida primaries and caucuses, all of which total up to a measly 154 delegates, for Rudy would be "a variety of winners," a "dog's breakfast of primaries," with no one emerging out of them clearly on top.

Huckabee is a one-state wonder, due to leftie-squishy evangelicals begging for corn-ethanol subsidies in Iowa.  Michigan, the next state up (1/15), will be a duke-out between McCain and Romney, so Huck will try to regain his momentum in South Carolina (1/19).

But Palmetto State evangelicals are not like those in Iowa.  They are "Onward Christian Soldier" military-admiring folks who'll cotton much more to Fred Thompson, who's decided that's where he's betting all his chips.

Rudy, on the other hand, hasn't played any of his chips yet.  He's been busy raising lots of dough and building a professional national campaign organization focused on just two dates:  January 29 in Florida and February 5, Super Tuesday.  And while he's been doing this, he's been off the attack-ad radar scope while all the other candidates tear each other's guts out with negative campaigning.

So whoever steps into the Florida ring with Rudy after Michigan and South Carolina will be tired and beaten up, while Hizzoner will be tanned, rested, and ready.  But Florida's just the Prelim.

The Main Event is Super Tuesday.  Count ‘em, 21 Republican primaries on the same day:  Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, and West Virginia.  1,081 delegates at stake.  It takes 1,173 to win the nomination (half+1 of 2,345 total).

Not that Rudy is going to sweep the board on February 5.  But only he on that day will have enough money and organizational firepower to come out dominantly ahead of the field – and after that, the nomination is pretty much his.

For it's one thing to wander around Iowa cornfields and go to town meetings in New Hampshire hamlets – but conducting a campaign including state-wide advertising in places like California, Illinois, New Jersey or New York is a whole new dimension of reality. 

It's frankly astonishing that given this reality, compounded by all of these places and more primary-ing on the same day, that only Giuliani had the prescience to figure out cornfields and hamlets are a mortal waste of time and resources.

I mean, isn't Romney supposed to have the giant managerial-business smarts?  Now, if he doesn't win Michigan, he's cooked.

I suppose it's time to whisper what a Congressman, who said I couldn't use his name for this, told me about Mitt.  In a recent conversation with him, he asked, "Governor, what would be your most important foreign policy objectives as president?"

Be prepared for this.  Romney's reply was, "One of my main objectives would be to have a military alliance with China."

The Congressman told me when he heard that he almost soiled himself.  "He's either monumentally naïve or his company, Bain Capital, is just too deep in bed with China.  Whatever, I cannot possibly think of a graver threat to our national security than such an alliance."

So goodnight, Huck and Mitt.  That leaves McCain as the remaining contender.  He's got a head of steam right now, but there just isn't enough money and organizational structure in the boiler to sustain it. 

That's the way it looks right now.  Right now, The Man Who Wasn't There is smiling his famous smile, and so is everyone on his campaign staff.