THE GOP RACE BEFORE FLORIDA

A good man has withdrawn from the campaign.

Fred Thompson, as I predicted, withdrew from the campaign after his predictably disappointing performance in South Carolina. But he has surprised me by not endorsing John McCain…yet.  

Thompson hinted days earlier that South Carolina would be conclusive for him, but it was emotionally taxing on his wife.  One thing at a time.  He may yet endorse, although in a conference call to his maxed-out donors yesterday (1/24), he said he would not.

Perhaps he is waiting to see whether McCain or Romney wins the very competitive Florida primary on Tuesday.  Indeed, the winner of that primary has a real leg up on Super Tuesday.  And for one candidate, Rudy Guiliani, it could be a life line, or the last gasp. 

I suppose you could argue that a victory this Tuesday in Florida would be a new lease on life for the most formidable campaigner, Mike Huckabee.  But as I expected and had written contemporaneously, Iowa was his peak.   Now, his campaign team has voluntarily given up their salaries, and it is only a matter of time before his peripatetic and high profile campaign consultant, Ed Rollins, departs. 

When the going gets tough, the toughest get going.  Already, the Huckabee campaign suggested "if only…" Thompson had withdrawn a week early.  But he didn't and wasn't expected to withdraw.

Such an argument assumes:  if all things were equal. The reality of such specious analysis is that in politics, you can't hold all factors equal. If Thompson had withdrawn, new factors would have come into play.

This is akin to the Romney argument that, absent the Huckabee phenomenon, Romney would have won Iowa and lived happily ever after.  Of the Rudy argument that, absent the McCain resurgence, Rudy would be doing just fine.

But the real story is this:  if Thompson's withdrawal last week could then have benefited Huckabee, he was not in a position to capitalize, because Huckabee actually cut his campaign in Florida to concentrate on smaller states for Super Tuesday. 

Huckabee should have celebrated Thompson's exit, on the theory that some of Thompson's core conservatives included evangelicals more open to Huckabee.  But why celebrate when you can't pay for the party?

But who are these Thompson voters, and are they transferable at all? Hardcore conservatives among them might lean toward Romney, but defense hawks might tilt a bit toward Rudy, and certainly toward McCain.   It is not that a Thompson endorsement of McCain would move voters in lockstep as much as it would telegram momentum for McCain. 

For Romney, the real challenge is whether Thompson's evangelical voters would hold Romney's Mormon faith against him.  If not, they would lean toward Romney.  But reality may be harsher for Romney.

As for Rudy, he says, as of this writing, that he did not realize how viable other candidates would be at this point in the race.  This introspection after his campaign has spent $30 million!   If he had spent hardly anything, his numbers would not be much lower. 

That is, he could have run a placebo campaign.    It seems that for Rudy to win in Florida, he would have to jump from third place to first place. If he does that, more power to him, if he has any cash left.

Meanwhile, Romney, like Rudy, remains an impressive and talented man who struggles relentlessly to undo self-inflicted wounds of a different kind.   What happened is that long ago (meaning just over a year), he seemingly turned on a dime.  He appeared to flip-flop, and that unfortunate perception defined his introduction to the American people. 

What happened is that Romney, in politics, seemed to do what banks, in subprime losses, have been doing.  Get the bad news behind you, write off your losses.  He decided to deal with past problem positions right away.  But what works in business accounting does not always work in politics.

Romney plausibly could have changed his position on abortion.  But he did too much, too soon.  And, when he explained how his position evolved, he needed to talk slowly, sound thoughtful.  Instead, he seemed to be pitching.  Too often, Romney does not appear to be believing what he is saying.  This makes me sad, because he is a bright, accomplished man.

Romney wanted to be liked too much, he tried too hard. That accounted for missteps like the perception that he erroneously asserted his father, George Romney, had marched with Martin Luther King.

The real question in Florida is whether the growing Stop-McCain movement can overcome the momentum of McCain's victory in South Carolina.   The bloggers have it right – McCain is selling authenticity, even for those who do not agree with him on every issue, while Romney must overcome a perception of insincerity, an image he tragically defined early. 

That's not to say that Romney can't yet be the nominee, but even if that should happen, he has acquired, for the general election, a negative more of his own making that he must overcome and…with some objective assessment and assistance, probably can overcome. 

Long ago, Reagan admirers said, "Let Reagan be Reagan." Perhaps some should say, "Let Romney be Romney."

If McCain should become the party's nominee, his image as an independent and a maverick help make him an attractive candidate in a year where liberals like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama define more and bigger government as "change."

In the meantime, the ground game in Florida is moving fast, because the stakes are high, but most of all for Rudy, who needs a win desperately; it's unclear if even a close second keeps him in contention for Super Tuesday.   And, if McCain wins in Florida on Tuesday, the Stop-McCain movement will become hysterical as it goes into high gear.

It's as much about power, as about issues.  The hardcore conservative leaders and activists not only disagree with McCain on some issues important to them, but he has offended them.  For example, last year, McCain did not appear at the Conservative Political Action Committee conference (C-PAC) in Washington.

About Democrats. I watched for weeks while Obama referred publicly, and in their debates, to "Hillary," while she respectfully referred to him as "Senator Obama."  Imagine if a white male candidate referred to an opposing woman candidate by her first name.  We would hear charges of sexism. 

About Tom DeLay, Limbaugh, others.  DeLays' attacks on McCain will not hurt McCain, but help him.  For McCain to be hurt, he needs to be attacked by Republican icons.  Rush Limbaugh's attacks are taking their toll.  If McCain wins in Florida, the Stop McCain movement will go into high gear.

And more about Democrats.  The Clinton-Obama (Edwards bystander) debate looked juvenile and indirectly helped McCain, because he is seen as stable.  Also, the agreement by all three candidates that McCain will be the opponent confers the impression of "inevitability" that could help McCain in Florida, except that Romney is running a strong campaign there that makes predictions tough.   With the volatile numbers, one question is how many voters voted by mail during a time period where McCain was clearly leading?

Race.  And I don't mean the campaign.  The Clinton-Obama-Clinton three-some is more than amusing.   Dick Morris is right-it's a Clinton gambit to inject race by driving up African-American support for Obama, with the hope that white voters, rejecting voting by race, would then, ironically, unite behind Hillary.

About Thursday's Florida debate.  A debate on MSNBC is not widely viewed, but the network and print media pickup will shape the next few days.  The candidates looked tired. That's because they did retail politics with little down time for R&R for debate preparation. 

McCain went after Hillary Clinton, but then, so did Romney.  The more a Republican primary candidate goes after a potential Democrat opponent in the presidential election, the more confident the Republican looks.  Huckabee had the best, if not most demagogic lines, about China.  There is nothing easier nowadays than bashing China. 

On the whole, it was a good night for Romney.

It was almost funny to hear Huckabee talk about mothers who can't get to soccer games or ballet practice because of traffic.  Now, we have candidates for President talking about traffic. Whatever happened to federalism?

Arnold Steinberg is a political strategist, analyst, and expert on American politics.  For media interviews, he can be contacted at [email protected] This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it .  No personal communications please.