THE 2008 CARPE DIEM FILTER

There is a maddeningly ubiquitous quote attributed to American philosopher George Santayana (1863-1952) that is the opposite of the truth: "Those who refuse to learn from history are doomed to repeat it."

The truth is: Those who believe history repeats itself are doomed never to learn from it.

The trick is to recognize historical patterns, and know how to apply them to the uniquely different circumstances of what is happening now. (Just as a doctor applies his store of medical learning to you as an individual patient, and doesn't treat everyone the same.)

The bottom line is that history is stochastic – it is a series of uniquely unrepeatable events, like your own life. Of all the billions and billions of human beings who have lived, are alive now, and ever will live, none of them will have a life identical to yours. The total aggregate of all those lives (i.e., "history") is equally singular.

And that is why there's no such thing as a crystal ball – not for any time in the future, much less the one staring us right in the face, the year of 2008.

I can tell you what I expect, what I think is likely, what I won't be surprised if it occurs – but I can also guarantee you that all kinds of stuff will happen next year that will be a surprise straight out of the blue.

One reason human history is stochastic is that problems and disasters don't matter nearly as much as people's reaction to them, the extent to which they are seen as opportunities.

The ghastly murder today of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan is a classic example.  This is an irreversible disaster for her personally, but not necessarily for her country.  It offers Pervez Musharraf a platinum opportunity to hold his country together and rid it of its twin evils.

For an understanding of Pakistan from its creation in 1947 to today, you've got to read The Lunacy of a British Legacy.  Focus especially on the Islamofascist behind the ISI (Pak intel), Hamid Gul.  Musharraf placed him under arrest in early November but released him a month later.

There are two theories over who killed Bhutto, Al Qaeda and the ISI.  They are not competing but complimentary with Gul the nexus.  Musharraf now has the chance to funnel the outrage towards smashing Al Qaeda in the Pushtun tribal areas and unleash the Army upon the ISI.  One indication of how he'll move is if he has Gul arrested and shot.

But if he doesn't carpe diem, 2008 will see Pakistan in a meltdown maelstrom.  At this moment, Pervez Musharraf is the only thing holding Pakistan together.  And note:  Nawaz Sharif is Hamid Gul's stooge.  That Sharif is now demanding Musharraf resign is one more indication Gul orchestrated Bhutto's killing.

These events are a slap-in-the-face reminder of how mortally important it is for there to be a fully grown adult with a depth of decency and real world experience in the White House on January 20, 2009.

Will a majority of voters have the brains to figure this out?  That hordes of them are even considering a naïve man-child, an ambulance chaser, an evil witch, or a huckster is not reassuring. 

I personally believe that neither The PIAPS, Obambi Hussein, nor the Breck Boy have any reasonable chance of getting elected.  And I cannot take seriously a Preacher Boy candidacy by another Arkansas populist con man. 

Yet when I think how America dodged a bullet from the likes of Algore and another from F'n Kerry, it's also hard to believe that Providence will push us aside from still another.

Fortunately, Providence has always watched over America in spite of itself.

For that to continue, the most minimal requirement for a president is to resist the liberal compulsion to apologize for America's existence in the world.  We can upgrade the requirement to a determination to defend America's national security. 

The ideal requirement would be a president who knows how to carpe diem – who looks at problems as opportunities to pro-actively advance America's security and interests in the world.

There will be plenty of such opportunities in 2008 and the following years of the next presidency.  Let's judge our choice of candidates on who would best be able to not just defend in a crisis, but to recognize and maximize the opportunity in a crisis to America's benefit.

One such crisis has just presented itself in Pakistan.  Here are three more examples headed down the 2008 pike:

China's economic crash.  The problems of no water, no wives, and no banks – discussed back in May of 2004 in China's Three No's – are rapidly coming to a boil, that of the banks in particular.  The cash flow deficits incurred by state-owned enterprises and overbuilding city governments must be covered, on Beijing's orders, by China's banks.

In a privately-circulated assessment, Ernst & Young believes the bad loans have now ballooned to $1.2 to $1.3 trillion – trillion.  Thus, the report concludes:  "China's $1.4 trillion of foreign currency reserves will in fact almost all be required to prop up the banking system when the inevitable liquidity crisis occurs."

Will jingoistic militarism be the Chicoms' solution to financial crisis?  If so, towards us, Taiwan, or Russia?  See Chinese Siberia.

Russia's military crash.  For all his corrupt billions and bullying swagger, Putin is all hat and no cattle militarily.  As detailed in Russian military specialist Zoltan Barany's book, Democratic Breakdown and the Decline of the Russian Military, the myth pushed by Putin and Western news media of an active remilitarization of modern Russia "bears no relation to reality."

The strategic bomber fleet is aging turbo-prop, the sub fleet disintegrating, 60% of the nuclear missile arsenal has exceeded its service life and needs major repairs, 9 out of 10 eligible draftees evade the draft, within a few years over half the soldiers in the Russian Army will be Moslem – and as we saw in Silence in Syria, Panic in Iran, Russia's hyper-sophisticated antiaircraft missile systems are worthless.

Militarily, Putin is a species of humanoid known as Homo phonus balonus.  Russia is a sitting duck for China.

America's illegal immigration crash.  How about this for an uplifting, inspiring news headline:  Illegal Immigrants "Self-Deport" As Woes Mount.  To the extent communities and states across America crackdown on hiring illegals, the illegals are moving back to Mexico.

Doesn't that sound like an opportunity to you?

Don't all these sound like opportunities?  Who among the candidates would you choose to best take advantage of them?  That's the filter – the Carpe Diem Filter – to use for 2008.

I'd be really interested in hearing how you apply it.  Let me know.