HANDICAPPING THE SENATE

One of the nicest and sharpest guys in the Senate is John Ensign of Nevada.  As the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, he's in a good position to handicap the Senate races for 2008.

He did just that at a small briefing on Capitol Hill this week, promising to do so without any Pollyannic varnish.  Judge for yourself. 

Currently, of 100 Senate seats, 51 are Democrat (counting Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman), 49 are Republican.  The odds seem slim that the GOP could gain the majority, but less slim that the Dems will expand theirs.  Thirteen months is an eternity on an election clock.  There will be surprises on both sides, count on it.

There are 22 Republican seats up, including five retirements, while the Dems have only 12.  Many GOP seats are vulnerable, but the Dems' main targets are:

Gordon Smith of Oregon, who should be okay.

Norm Coleman of Minnesota, who remains popular, did well in response to the Minneapolis bridge disaster last month, and hopefully will have goofy Al Franken as his opponent.  The race will be tight, but odds now are with him.

Susan Collins of Maine, not popular among conservatives nationally but is as conservative as you can be for liberal Maine.  Moveon.org has spent over $1 million (yes, one million dollars) in negative attack ads on her in the last six months, and she's still at 70% approval.  Should be fine.

John Sununu of New Hampshire will be hard pressed to keep his seat from former governor Jeanne Shaheen.  Very tough neck & neck race.

In Colorado with Wayne Allard retiring, former Rep. Bob Schaffer will run against current Rep. Mark Udall, a hyper-lib from the People's Republic of Boulder who will pretend to be "moderate" to the state's voters.  Will be close, but Schaffer will win.

In Nebraska, retiring Chuck Hagel's seat should be handily retained by former governor Mike Johanns, who just resigned as Secretary of Agriculture to run.  This is because popular former Senator Bob Kerrey has decided not to run for the Dems.

In Virginia, former Dem governor Mark Warner will be very hard to beat.  Former GOP governor Jim Gilmore will likely be his challenger, for whom it will be very difficult to keep retiring John Warner's seat.

With Pete Dominici just announcing his retirement, his New Mexico seat should be taken by his protégé Rep. Heather Wilson, especially if Bill Richardson (current governor and 2^nd tier presidential candidate) keeps out as he's vowed.

At best then, Ensign sees the GOP likely losing two seats (Virginia/New Hampshire).  What about gains?  The only Dem seat he thought really vulnerable is Mary Landrieu's in Louisiana.  Bobby Jindal will be the new Republican governor this November, who will give a huge boost to State Treasurer John Kennedy, who just switched from Dem to GOP so he can challenge Landrieu.

The other sign of light Ensign saw is that Hillary Clinton at the top of the Dem ticket will depress the candidacies of virtually every Dem across the country, House and Senate.  Every Republican race will be helped by her.

So that's the assessment 13 months out.  We'll see how it holds up.