CONDI VS. CHENEY IN THE PERSIAN GULF

Though The Poison That Is Killing The West has only been up for a short while, there's already a discussion thread on the User Forum.  Dennis Turner, for example, is pessimistic regarding war with Iran (he's pessimistic that there won't be war – I'm optimistic there will be!):

Sad to say, but I don't think we'll take them on. I think we'll issue an ultimatum banning Iranian naval forces from the waterway, but won't shoot when they violate the ban. I hate to be so pessimistic but I see this happening in Israel, where the threat is existential, with Rice pushing for final status issues with the PA while they do not recognize Israel, accept previous agreements, agree to collect weapons and dismantle the terrorist infrastructure, renounce violence, etc.

Whether Dennis or I are right on this depends on who emerges victorious in the main power struggle taking place in the White House right now:  between Condi Rice and Dick Cheney.

I'm betting on Dick.  Ironically, Rice's current diplo efforts in Israel are weakening her considerably – for all her desperate attempts to broker yet another "peace agreement" have achieved is public insults from Saudi King Adbullah, denouncing US forces in Iraq as an "illegal foreign occupation."

Rice has now been seriously embarrassed and her influence with Bush (who is seriously ticked at Abdullah) diminished.  Bush is quickly losing all interest in efforts to help the Palestinians.  So when she argues for not attacking Iran, for "diplomatic solutions" in the Brit hostage crisis, he's paying far less attention than to Cheney, who wants to put all this gigantic firepower we've now got in the Persian Gulf to good use.

Cheney's point is that if we back down and don't use the firepower we've just put in place, the mullahs will have won a major, major victory by calling our bluff in causing the hostage crisis.  This is the make or break moment.  Cheney wants to make it, Condi is squishing out and thus will break it. 

Condi's failures and Cheney's invaluable advice are why Bush has backed off on the plan to have her replace him as VP, giving her the catbird seat for the GOP presidential nomination. 

The Bush Presidency and the future of the Middle East is on the line right now in the Persian Gulf.  Bush must decide between Condi or Cheney.  Let's hope he makes the right choice.