YOU PREDICT

In reading the profusion of predictions for 2007 so many of you were kind enough to send in this past week, what became most obvious is the individuality of To The Point members.  TTPers think for themselves.

Thus it has been such an enjoyable experience to read them all.  I want to thank you so much for every one.  I hope you'll understand that there are too many to discuss, that I have to pick and choose.  I also won't quote anyone with their full name – with one exception.

Bill Gregory informs me that his wife Carole, after a wee dram or two of 18 year-old single malt, predicts that Hillary Clinton will remove herself from the 2008 presidential race after discovering she has testicular cancer.

So seriously, folks….

All the rest were in fact serious.  Some were so pessimistic that, should they prove true, we'll need to be heavily fortified with single malt ourselves just to get through the year.

Darrell C. advises us to circle the wagons, as "Rising interest rates will continue downward pressure on the housing market because rates must rise to prevent capital fleeing to Europe and Asia. The DJIA will fall below 10,000.  Rising demand on top of worsening war in the Middle East and increasing hostility from Russia will bring oil to at least $100 per barrel."

Yet others are equally optimistic.  Gary L., a professional financial analyst, sees the DOW heading for 14,000 and the S&P at a new record of 1650 or better.  Curtis W. thinks the DOW is headed much higher than that, and gold for $800.  (He had a lot of company regarding gold.)

And Mike P., VP of asset management for a Fortune 500 company, is convinced that: 

"Oil prices are headed lower, much lower.  Oil will briefly trade below $35 and finish the year below $50. The recent action in American Airlines and Jet Blue certainly suggests oil prices have probably peaked.  Exxon also looks very toppy."

Mike strongly recommends Ultimate Resource II by Julian Simon, and notes that "Global commodities markets are much more powerful than the delusional Dems."    

(More than one of you, like Lawrence B. and David D., predict large oil deposits will be discovered in Israel.)

While there was a host of predictions as to who would gain  either party's presidential nomination, I found Mike's really intriguing:

"With the field for Republican presidential candidates narrowing to Giuliani, McCain and the dark horse, Gingrich, and the field for Democrats reduced to Hillary and Obama, Jeb Bush will announce his intention to run for president.  He can beat Hillary."

If Hillary picks Obama as her running mate, Jeb will counter with Condi.  What makes this possible, for Mike, is that her husband's presidency negates his brother's as a nepotism or "dynasty" issue.

And there is no doubt:  if Jeb Bush, an extremely popular and successful governor of one of the most important and largest states, had a different last name, he'd be right now at the top of the GOP candidate list. 

The most pessimistic note overall was regarding immigration.  Many of you are convinced that the Dems will block the building of a border fence, and will secure amnesty for illegals .  Paul R. tried hard to put the best spin on it:

"An Immigration Bill will be passed, with guest worker permits and a path to citizenship. This will infuriate many, but will actually work out pretty well. Mexicans will line up to become legal, leaving only real bad guys to try to sneak over. Border Patrol will be less-burdened and do the job better."

Sure hope so.

To protect themselves from the illegal alien onslaught, Robert H. predicts a trend of city after city throughout the country passing laws against them.  Such laws will be attacked by the ACLU, which will suffer Supreme Court defeat as a consequence.  This could at last be "the start of the decline of the ACLU's and other special interests' legal influence in this country."

Sure hope so again! 

(As an aside, Robert is a veteran petroleum geologist with fascinating insights on the oil industry, which he may be sharing with us in a future TTP article.)

Dick A. pointed out the "vexing dilemma" the Dems will have with the coming duke-out between the Wicked Witches of the East vs. the West:

"Will Pelosi upstage the junior senator from New York with actions and words that will anger even some of her own party, and certainly Joe Lieberman?  Will Hillary want to share ANY stage with the chick from the district of fruits and nuts, thus taking away from an uninformed electorate the facade of being a ‘centrist'?"

Which brings up an even greater Dem Dilemma:  the Senator Who Isn't There.  George G. points out that the Dem Senate majority of 51-49 is actually 50-49, as Tim Johnson (D-SD) remains in a semi-coma and won't recover for several months at best.  This is as thin a majority as you can get: "One Dem switch makes it 50-50 and turns it over to the GOP with VP Cheney as Senate President tie-breaker."

In other words, the Pelosi House is just a dog-and-pony show.  All the real legislative action will be in the Senate.  Thus the most powerful guy there will not be Democrat Harry Reid but Republican Mitch McConnell.  "Pay more attention to Mitch than Harry," George advises.

Internationally, a number of you expect major terrorist attacks in Europe (only a few of you expect one here in the US). 

Dan W. expects Bibi Netanyahu to replace Ehud Olmert in Israel and launch major offensives against Iran's nukes, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and Assad in Syria.  Dave D. on the other hand expects the Olmert government to fall to a no-confidence vote, and Likud to take power – but not under Bibi.

Several of you are bearish on China, predicting either economic retrenchment or collapse.

Matt W. expects Chavez to make a play for control of Cuba once Castro dies.  Good insight, Matt.  Dagny d'Anconia explained how Castro was likely poisoned in The Partial Assassination of Castro. A number of folks in the intel community are coming around to believing it was Chavez who tried to kill his mentor, and will succeed this year. 

While some, like John K., think the War in Iraq will go from bad to worse, others such as Hiram B., are convinced Bush will "turn the tide" in Iraq:

"Bush's determination, the death of Saddam Hussein, the rebuilding of Iraq, the armed forces protection of the population, the rooting out of al Sadr and other death squads, the Iranian recognition that oil markets are more important than their own empire building, the fears in Saudi Arabia of Iran's hand in Iraq, and a withdrawal of Saudi and Syrian support for destabilization in Iraq, will all play a part in supporting the American offensive to win and then start to withdraw from Iraq, all in 2007. Russia and China may continue to interfere but will be marginalized as they focus on bigger issues in their own countries."

Brendan O. agrees, but because President Bush is like Inspector Cleauseau, who "in his own inarticulate and bumbling way will lose a battle and win the war."  Like Cleauseau, Bush "believes in himself (the good guy) and that the good guys always win. While the bad guys(Dems and Islamists) see him as a dorkish nerd, he is leading them into mine fields… The fall of Saddam Hussein (and not just through that trap door) will accelerate the decline of Islam."

Many comments were very moving.  Paula Z. worries about an America that is too innocent for the world:

"I was born and raised in Indonesia, lived in America for 37 years and still thank God every day for this privilege. I have seen how Indonesia went from a tolerant country to the biggest Moslem country in the world with all the consequences thereof. It is a repeat of history for me and my frustration for the lack of a willingness to understand by everyday Americans is beyond words. It is that wonderful American character to believe in the good and noble in people that creates this unwillingness to believe the unbelievable possibilities of hate and destruction that is awaiting them sooner than later."

And Art M. makes a commitment:

"Today is the only point in all of human history in which billions of  people will have the opportunity to participate in a global, online  economy.  My declaration for 2007 is, ‘I will do everything I can to  spread economic freedom and prosperity across the globe, and to render  dictators, jihadists, and socialists irrelevant'."

I'm going to end here and I sincerely apologize to all those who wrote but I didn't quote – space just doesn't permit.  I do want to conclude with a nice New Year present from my long time friend and famous investment guru, Mark Skousen.  One of Mark's top stock picks of 2007 is Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH-NYSE).

Mark was kind enough to invite me to speak at his FreedomFest Conference in Las Vegas, July 5-7, 2007.  I had to decline, as after I run my Serengeti safari ending in late June, I'll be in Madagascar with my son Jackson.

But you should consider attending.  He's put a marvelous conference together.  In the meantime, I'm looking forward to seeing many of you at our To The Point Rendezvous in Las Vegas later this month.

I must admit – I'm excited about 2007.  It's another year to enjoy the utterly amazing privilege of being alive on our planet Earth.  Thank you all once again for your thoughts, for taking the time to share them.  Thank you all for your support of To The Point.

Together, we can make a difference for freedom in the world.  I wish you all the absolute best for this new year.