ARGUMENT AGAINST JACK’S CELEBRATION OF HAMAS’ VICTORY

This is Dennis “The Wizard” Turner’s rebuttal to my Celebrating Hamas of last week. My comments are at the end. —JW

The core of Jack’s celebration is that now Europe and America could no longer delude themselves about the Palestinian’s intentions. Funding, diplomatic support, and pressure on Israel for further concessions would dry up.

Hamas’ victory was a week ago Wednesday (1/25). Already the international community’s initial comments are weakening. I will give pertinent extracts from a few articles published just six days later (1/31).

One (The Jerusalem Post, US Working to Strengthen Abbas’ Position in PA)

…..The US administration is working to strengthen Mahmoud Abbas’ position as Palestinian president and estimates that he will not resign in the near future and will remain in charge of negotiations with the West and Israel.

…..Privately, US diplomats have also conveyed to the Palestinian president the importance they see in him staying in office, in order to keep at least one channel of communication between the US and the PA open. Formally, the president of the Palestinian Authority is in charge of foreign affairs and so, if Abbas remains, the US can still negotiate with him and discuss issues of policy and of financial aid.

…..Evidence to the will of the Hamas to win over American public opinion could be found Tuesday in a Washington Post op-ed by Mousa Abu-Marzook, the deputy political bureau chief of the Hamas. Abu Marzook, who resides in Damascus since being deported from the US in 1997, took a conciliatory approach to the Hamas victory in the Palestinian elections and called on the American public to "judge this conflict in the light of the great thoughts, principles and ideals you hold dear in the Declaration of Independence". The senior Hamas member said in his article that the Israelis should not see the results of the elections as a threat, and added that "there must come a day when we will live together, side by side, once again".

…Israeli officials pointed out that Abu Marzook still did not recognize the right of Israel to exist and did not accept in his article the two-state solution, but diplomatic sources in Washington pointed out that the Hamas is indeed showing interest in maintaining working relations with the US and the West.

Two: (Jerusalem Post: How Europe Deals with the Hamas Within)

…..The EU’s foreign ministers grappled in Brussels Monday with how to treat the Palestinian Authority following last Wednesday’s landslide Hamas victory.

That there is even a question of whether to continue funding the PA if Hamas is part of the government shows that Europe has taken a much more forgiving position toward violent and terrorist organizations that form parties here than they do on their own continent.

Indeed, the participation of Hamas in the Palestinian Legislative Council elections ran against the grain of the law – and numerous precedents – governing parties that advocate violence and government overthrow in a number of European countries.
The following is a partial list:

France:
French law allows for the dismantling of parties, or forbidding their activities, on the basis of racist propaganda. The law also enables the dismantling of organizations that work toward inciting armed demonstration in the street, resemble militias, or "whose aim is to undermine the integrity of national territory or use force to attack republican government"…

Spain:
In Spain it is possible to forbid party activities, or to dismantle them on the basis of their being criminal organizations, especially if the organization is armed or a terrorist group.
In 2002 Spain enacted a law making it possible for a party to be banned if it supported a radical change in the state’s political structure, or if it directly or indirectly supported terrorism…

Austria:
In Austria there is no law enabling the dismantling of a party, although there is a ban on Nazi parties. When the far-right Freedom Party of Joerg Haider joined the Austrian government in 2000, the EU clamped unofficial diplomatic sanctions on Austria, and even discussed kicking it out of the EU.

Three: (Jerusalem Post: EU Won’t Cut PA Aid Yet, Demands Hamas Reform)

The US and Europe have similar views about aid for a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority government, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Monday in London as she tried to persuade other nations to cut off assistance to a government led by Hamas. Rice’s comments came prior to a meeting of the Quartet – the US, EU, UN and Russia.

Speaking for the Quartet of would-be, peace-making nations, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Monday that members of the future Hamas-led PA government must be committed to nonviolence, recognition of Israel and accept existing agreements.
Annan said Hamas must set up a government that is committed to the rule of law, to tolerance and to sound, fiscal management.

(Note: This is already backtracking. In the first days both Condi and Europe were demanding the Hamas Charter be revoked and the terrorist infrastructure be dismantled.)

The EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels earlier in the day were somewhat less adamant, making it clear that they would give Hamas some time before cutting off aid.
In a statement released after the meeting, the foreign ministers said: "Violence and terror are incompatible with democratic processes and urged Hamas and all other factions to renounce violence, to recognize Israel’s right to exist and to disarm."

The ministers said the EU expected the newly elected Palestinian Legislative Council "to support the formation of a government committed to a peaceful and negotiated solution of the conflict with Israel based on existing agreements and the road map, as well as to the rule of law, reform and sound fiscal management. On this basis the European Union stands ready to continue to support Palestinian economic development and democratic state building."

Austrian Foreign Minister Ursula Plasnik, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, told journalists the EU was aware of the Palestinians’ difficult financial situation.

"We think that everybody should make a concerted effort, so the Palestinian Authority can function," she said.

(Note: There’s much more along this line in the article.)

Nevertheless, other diplomatic sources in Jerusalem admitted some disappointment at the EU statement, saying that although it did place clear demands on Hamas, it was not strong enough and did not come close to what German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Sunday: that Europe should not fund the PA as long as Hamas did not recognize Israel and disarm.

Four: (The Jerusalem Post: The PA’s Debts)

…..For just the payment scheduled for this month, some NIS 200 million (1 US$ = 4.68 NIS) has been collected, and for now the government seems to have decided not to transfer the funds to the PA.

Unmentioned in our public discourse, however, are the vast funds owed by the PA to Israel. This situation antedates all recent upheavals. No sooner was the Israeli-Palestinian Interim Agreement signed in September 1995 did PA violations of economic relations protocols began to appear.

…..The Israel Electric Corporation’s case, though not unique, is perhaps the most glaring. IEC supplies power to the PA both in the Gaza Strip and in Judea and Samaria. Its crews were assured safe passage throughout the territories in the 1995 protocols, but this was not guaranteed in practice. Hence IEC maintains the grid up to the entrance to Palestinian cities, and from there PA crews take over. Local officials are likewise responsible for directly billing customers.

Most Palestinians don’t pay their bills and the PA doesn’t pay IEC. The bottom line is that IEC, in effect, supplies power for free, though this power – including fuel, equipment, manpower and services – is unquestionably expensive. At this juncture, the PA’s debt to IEC alone is a whopping NIS 220 million – the highest ever.

To understand how things have deteriorated, it serves to note that at the terror war’s outset in 2000, the PA owed NIS 85 million to IEC. At that time, Gaza City’s debt alone rose by a monthly NIS 15 million. These are sizable sums for even a large corporation to absorb.

Over time some of the money had been deducted from the customs and VAT revenues Israel has been collecting for the PA. However, the full debt was never deducted so as not to bankrupt the grossly mismanaged PA regime. The PA’s debts to Israeli companies were allowed to mushroom, while Israeli tax transfers continued.

…..The PA also owes Mekorot for much of its water, Bezeq for communications services, some of Israel’s cellphone firms, many of the country’s hospitals and numerous private Israeli suppliers and businessmen, who have little if any redress.

…..A fraction of such arrears within Israel would automatically lead to power cutoffs. Were this to be done to the PA, a hue and cry is sure to ensue about the humanitarian hardship imposed.

(Note: In a number of articles this week the EU warned against Israeli cutting off electricity or water in order to collect the bills. The Jews should continue supplying free electricity, water and telephone services so the terrorists sworn to annihilate the Jews can spend the money on arms.)

Five: (Haaretz: US Congress Moves to Legislate Against Hamas-Led PA)

WASHINGTON – Republican Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, from Florida, submitted on Tuesday the first legislative response to Hamas’ landslide victory in Palestinian elections last week. The bill, co-sponsored by Democratic Congressman Tom Lantos, from California, includes a number of extremely harsh measures against the radical Islamic movement.

However, sources in Washington predicted that some of the provisions will not be included in the final draft of the bill. There is reason to believe that the administration will try to moderate its tone during negotiations with legislators, which are expected to last a few weeks. (Emphasis Added.)

There has been a slew of articles in the last few days indicating that UN funding of ‘humanitarian’ projects – paid for by America and Europe, will continue. Like the Oil for Food program in Iraq during Saddam’s reign, little of the money gets to the Palestinians. In any case, it is infantile to think the Palestinians didn’t know exactly whom they were voting for. Read this.

If Condi and Europe are cracking within a few days of Hamas’ victory, there is little hope self-delusion won’t revert to their previous level within a couple of months. After the first Kassam or suicide bombing kills 30 or 40 people and Israel responds harshly, international attitudes will be back to where they were a month ago.

Dennis Turner

Comments:

Just as I always look for the best that can happen and see things in terms of opportunities, Dennis looks for the worst that can happen and sees things in terms of what can go wrong. There are advantages and liabilities to both these viewpoints.

Dennis could be right. Hamas could end up being accommodated to just like Yasser Arafat and the PLO. I could be wrong, no doubt about it. I argued that Hamas’ electoral victory last week was an opportunity that can be taken advantage of. Whether it will be is another matter.

Maybe it won’t. But Dennis has not made the case here that it won’t. Of course, Bush and Condi want to continue supporting and funding Abbas – all the better to enable Fatah and Hamas to engage in a Palestinian Civil War. That the 28,000 Fatah gunmen comprising the Palestinian Authority Security Forces are headed for a bloody duke-out with Hamas can be seen by this Jerusalem Post article today (2/2): Strongman Dahlan Takes on Hamas. (Dahlan is the former PA Security Chief.)

I see no evidence, and Dennis doesn’t present any, that Hamas will be getting any money from Bush, or even the Euros. You can never depend on the Euros not to wimp out, so Dennis has cause for concern here. But as he made clear in his State of the Union speech and interviews, Bush will stiff-arm Hamas flat.

The key dynamic now is the Hamas-Fatah struggle for power. I’ll be rooting for both of them – to kill each other off. —JW