THE BEIJING EPIPHANY

When I began giving lectures on “The Coming Collapse of the Soviet Empire” in the early 1980s, I would put up a large world map on the wall and point to the enormous monochrome blob of the Soviet Union dwarfing and hulking over Europe and Asia.

“I want you all to imagine what the world would be like if the Soviet Union ceased to exist, that it went the way of other empires of the past and vanished into history,” was my request of the audience.

What I would always get was MEGO: my eyes glaze over, in response. The Soviet Union seemed such a permanent fixture of the world in the audience’s mind that they couldn’t imagine it going away.

I remember when the CEO of a large corporation based in Los Angeles started to get it. He stared at the map in wide-eyed wonder and exclaimed, “Everything would be different!” He suddenly was looking at the world differently, and this new perception was exploding with new possibilities. He had had an epiphany.

Not The Epiphany, the “revelatory manifestation of a divine being” as experienced by the Magi upon visiting the infant Jesus in the manger, traditionally celebrated January 6^th.  An epiphany is an insight into the nature of something that transforms the way you look at it. And that is what I want you to have regarding China.

I want you to imagine what the world would be like if China ceased to be ruled by a Communist dictatorship and became a democracy instead. Let’s start with the crashing of Marxist tyrannies in North Korea and Burma. Vietnam might take a little longer – a little.

Pakistan, bereft of its main ally, would finally have to make peace with India over Kashmir. The momentum for its democratization would be hard to resist.

China would focus inward on correcting the destruction of its environment, providing regional autonomy to Tibet and East Turkestan (Xinjiang Province), establishing a genuine rule of law, and figuring out how messy party politics in democracies with free press, speech, and assembly actually work. It wouldn’t be focused on preparing for war with foreign devils – to the immense relief of the defense budgets of Japan, India, Australia, and America.

The first move these nations would make would be an alliance with a democratic China directed at an increasingly un-democratic Russia.

No, it wouldn’t be a panacea for all of China’s problems and our problems with it. But it sure would solve a lot of them. So – how do we do it? How do we democratize China?

First, let’s draw a distinction between personal dictatorships and systemic dictatorships.

The former exist due to the personal force of one individual: Castro in Cuba, Chavez in Venezuela, Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Lukashenko in Belarus, Turkmenbashi in Turkmenistan, Karimov in Uzbekistan. The only way to liberate a personal dictatorship is for the dictator to die, either by natural or, ah, un-natural means.

Advocates of freedom for these countries must understand that there is no chance whatever of their succeeding until and unless the dictator himself is dead. So it does no good to complain or protest or do anything except shut up and wait until he croaks (Castro and Mugabe who are old), or shoot him (Chavez and Lukashenko who are young). They’ve got to take their choice: shut up or shoot.

(A note on Iraq: this is why it is necessary to execute Saddam. The quicker he is strung up on a gibbet on world television the better. As long as he remains alive, the Sunnis will continue to dream of returning to power and support the Sunni Triangle insurgency.)

With systemic dictatorships, it is different. The regime won’t collapse with the assassination of one ruler because it is not dependent upon him. Syria, Iran, Burma, North Korea – and China – are in this category. Regime change in these can only be achieved through revolution.

Violent revolution is always a last resort. Sometimes there is no choice – such as the Mujahaddin in Afghanistan fighting the occupation of their country by the Soviet Red Army in the 1980s. But because it is a last resort it is normally futile. An armed insurgency in North Korea for example, would have not much more of a chance than peaceful protests.

The one method that has proven successful recently are the peaceful democratic “color” revolutions that have taken place in Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine, and Lebanon. Attempts to replicate them in personal dictatorships such as Belarus and Uzbekistan have been unsuccessful. Any attempt to conduct one in a complete tyranny like North Korea would be instantly crushed.

China, however, is ripe – ripe to be painted the color of freedom.

What is needed is a program, a focused well-financed effort to train and teach democracy activists in China the techniques and strategies used to conduct successful democratic revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia.

This will be done primarily through the Internet. The Chicom government’s desperate attempts at web control are breaking down. The Chinese “blogosphere” is growing beyond the Chicom’s capacity to contain it. As one recent description explains:

“Although the party and police this year tightened their licensing regime and keyword filtering mechanisms on internet services, particularly news websites and search engines, the free spirits of the largely amateur, non-commercial blogosphere are slipping around the so-called Great Firewall of China and setting the news agenda.” (The Sydney Herald, December 23, 2005)

The vast majority of Chinese bloggers are young and have no desire whatever to live the rest of their lives under Chicom control. Advocacy of democracy is becoming one of their major themes. There is no way the Chicoms can stand in the middle of the road and stop the direction of technology – technology upon which the Chinese economy is now dependent – towards unfettered access to information.

The Information Revolution is leading to Democratic Revolution in China. All the Chinese need are the tools and guidance to end Chicom control over their lives peacefully and soon.

By now you may have guessed why I was in Kiev and Taiwan earlier this month. It was to launch just such a program. It will be keeping me busy next year, and I’ll be sure and keep you posted on its progress.

The days are numbered for Chicom control of China. That’s the Beijing Epiphany.