TENET DOWN, POWELL TO GO

Here’s my initial take on CIA Director George Tenet’s resignation today (June 3). I think this is very good news. It shows that the Pentagon, Rumsfeld in particular, is fighting back. Remember – as was discussed last week in The Real Problem in Iraq – the real war in Iraq is between the State Department and the CIA on one side (that of the UN and Arab rulers like the Saudi Royal Family) and the Pentagon on the other (America and freedom-democracy for Arabs and Iraqis).

The focus of the war is now over the Oil-For-Food scandal, with State-CIA trying to squelch it, the Pentagon trying to expose it. As the fellow who discovered the scandal – some $5 billion in bribes paid by Saddam to dozens of the world’s most powerful people – and who has the incriminating documents, Ahmad Chalabi had to be destroyed.

As of last week, State/CIA was winning. Then they overplayed their hand – twice. They insisted on ramming down the Iraqi Governing Council’s throat their own choices to lead the Iraq Interim Government, with the UN’s Lakhdar Brahimi as their front man. But the IGC proceeded to select their own candidate for Prime Minister, Iyad Allawi, and told Brahimi to stuff it. They followed this snub up with rejecting the octogenarian Saudi stooge Adnan Pachachi as interim president, choosing popular tribal leader Ghazi al-Yawer instead.

You have no idea how this enraged the Pinstripes from Bob Blackwill and Jerry Bremer on down. Bremer tried every bribe he could think of (just one example – the Iraq Ambassadorship to the US) to persuade al-Yawer to turn the interim presidency down. Al-Yawer told Bremer to get lost.

Both Allawi (who is a cousin of Chalbi’s) and al-Yawer are determined to expose the Oil-For-Food scandal. The Iraqis are standing up for themselves and refusing to be puppets of the UN. This is a real defeat for the Pinstripes and the Spooks.

The second major mistake was the CIA’s attempt to make a criminal out of Chalabi with this ridiculous story of him revealing vital classified secrets to Iran. This is Keystone Cops juvenile make-believe and everyone here in Washington knows it.

Supposedly, an unnamed American got drunk and told Chalabi the US had broken Iranian code, who then proceeded to tell an Iranian official. This official informs his bosses back in Tehran, naming Chalibi, and the message is sent in the very code that’s broken. The story is laughable on its face – and assuredly a lie, because knowledge of code-breaking is way, way beyond Top Secret, so classified only a tiny handful of government leaders have access to it, and certainly not some bozo in Baghdad blabbing drunkenly to Ahmad Chalabi.

Yet the CIA compounded the lie when folks on Capitol Hill began laughing at it, and leaked that the FBI was going to investigate Chalabi. Now the game got suddenly lethal – for this meant that the CIA was not just going after Chalabi but his handlers at the Pentagon.

The instant Rumsfeld saw that George Tenet was getting the FBI to criminally investigate his people, he picked up the phone and called the president. After the conversation, GW called Tenet to ask for his resignation. This all took place yesterday.

That’s my take and if I’m right, it is extremely good news. Evidence in its favor will be a die-off of all the media hit pieces on Chalabi, Porter Goss (R-FL, Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee) nominated to replace Tenet, and… the fall from grace of Colin Powell.

Powell is seen as so impregnable that he feels fully free to wage war on Bush and Rumsfeld (see Sophisticated Stupidity in this week’s TTP Report). Yet he has significant vulnerabilities.

The gravest is that for years Colin Powell was on the Saudi payroll. All during the Clinton years, Powell spent dozens of weekends at the Aspen mansion of Saudi Ambassador Prince Bandar. The Saudi government made Powell a multi-millionaire through lucrative “consulting” contracts. Being so deeply in the Saudis’ pockets, he is incapable of ending Saudi support of Al Qaeda terrorism.

The question is whether Powell will resign before or after the election. My guess is after. GW will put him on a leash, he will behave himself, then step down with dignity after Bush’s re-election. He will only resign before if there is either a fire-storm of negative press on him – very unlikely, as the Pogos worship him – or if he is sure Kerry will win. His resignation would then be timed to do maximum damage to Bush, and ensure his retention in a Kerry Cabinet.

But Bush is going to win. The economy is going well and will continue to get better through November. With this week’s new developments plus the US military’s continuing victories, Iraq has bottomed out and will continue to get better through November. Kerry has and will have no campaign – plus he is simply an objectively awful candidate. No voters save for professional Bush-haters can have any affection for him.

So Colin will hang around and not cause trouble, but on November 3rd, he follows Tenet. I know last week was depressing. Who knows what surprises next week will bring. But this week has been great. So re-read Shut Down (in Classics, or Behind The Lines, February 27, 2004). For now, I think Bush is In like Flynn.